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2020 marketing thread

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  • 2020 marketing thread

    Few things that should be mentioned as we enter a new year
    1) US$ looks to have topped out lowest close since july(friendly grains longterm)
    2)bonds and notes looked to have topped( means higher interest rates ahead)
    3)most commodities appeared to have bottomed(inflation ?)
    4) at some point corn and bean stocks will be lowered,but when who knows might not be untill sept but this years poor growing conditions will be accounted for sometime,throw in another wet spring and grain prices could be sharply higher,looks like china will be back in the US market and with supplies tighter here and abroad it could get interesting
    5)other countries are having problem aussie and new zealand burning up,to wet in europe,to dry in black sea area,SA not bad but far from good

  • #2
    AND, no matter how hard it will be/is, to AVOID politics in marketing and economy...the thread will become a dinosaur...without politics!

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    • #3
      let us see if it will work anyway never know you mite just like it --Local chick plant is paying 4.58 for corn this morning last Monday they had to quit taking trucks because so many showed up and their bins got full also another local company has started to build a MEGA complex with 50 houses in it all of them will be 60 foot wide by 600 foot long witch will hold 40000 + birds a house =2,000,000 birds time five batches a year now you have 10,000,000 birds in one spot that is a game changer look how much feed and inputs this will take not to mention the fertilizer part of it----------------------------------dave





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      • #4
        Who is going to eat all this chicken? They are building them at a rapid pace around here.

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        • #5
          Pretty hard to do the math on this one, when I can buy chicken leg quarters at the store a mile away for 69 cents/lb. My guess is that these are over quota chickens that are coming outta Canada! People buy Costco's rottissiorre $5 chicken to feed their pets!

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          • #6
            I would guess china will buy chicken also as they need cheap protein to keep the people fed and happy,don't see them buying much beef as it is to expensive,except for offal and other parts we don't eat.Japan trade deal will have them buying more US beef as they like out grain fed beef,high tarrifs kept us to high priced but with tarrifs being reduced they should but more of our beef

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            • #7
              Prices have been inching up in most commodities. But some "Fertilizer" salesman will increase his prices 3% while farm revenue grew 2% . So the he farmer gets screwed again. At least with the current cash prices I can make decisions that dont make me further into debt
              Don't get tripped by what's behind you

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              • #8
                I booked some urea and map yesterday prices were lower than last YEAR,corn prices are higher than a year ago,but I do think prices re going to go higher so If I can get things planted should be some money to make,
                when fat cattle broke hard las fall I layed in 600 yrl hfrs,I sat on my hands and did'nt hedge em,trying to sell 1st pen this week looks like their going to make around 200/hd,good way to start the year

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                • #9
                  the growers in my area have started to feel their effects I all ready know of two that are cut off and their houses are not that old they mite have bin sub-par growers my guess this will put the screws to them all----------------------------------dave
                  Last edited by davidm479; 01-03-2020, 04:41 PM.

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                  • #10
                    ..………
                    One thin I need to point out on this particular company a few years ago they had new growers going in and then likeb the next year wold decide to build another house or so as the pace was fast at this time the company would order them to UP DATE their one year old house in order to get the new house of witch would add around $40.000 to the new set up this lead to law suits out the *** I know because I was drug into it in the end they settled company lost it took ten years the pay out was so bad they sold out --- A Mexican company bought them so my thinking is all this will be shipped South -------------------------------------------------------dave

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                    • #11
                      grain and lvstk got hammered fri from drone strike that killed iran general,rumor is that china may not sign phase 1 deal now,rest of the commods were sharply higher,does'nt make much sence that corn would break a nickel when energies are sharply higher,will be interesting to see if we rebound this week if there is no retalation also have major usda reports out on fri so we could set back more into those reports as people take profits,funds still short corn so not sure they would want to sell more ahead of fri

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                      • #12
                        you guys ever get done in you region Stf yery little work has bin done here rair just keeps comind every 3 to 5 days just like last year always hope but we may just have to start razing crawdads---------------------------------------------dave

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                        • #13
                          theres still some corn and flowers left but more as you go north

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                          • #14
                            ]China won't hike grain import quotas for U.S. trade deal - Caixi








                            : Frozen corn is seen on a farm in East Grand Forks BEIJING - China will not increase its annual low-tariff import quotas for corn, wheat and rice to accommodate stepped-up purchases of farm goods from the United States, local media group Caixin quoted senior agriculture official Han Jun as saying on Tuesday.
                            The report underlines China's desire to protect its farmers at a time when it is under pressure to buy billions of dollars more of U.S. agricultural goods to calm a prolonged trade war, although its grain imports have been well below quota levels in recent years.
                            Traders and analysts said the announcement appeared to be aimed at local concerns as Beijing gears up to buy more U.S. agricultural goods.
                            "This is soothing market nerves here," said Meng Jinhui, a corn analyst with Shengda Futures. "I think the market is worried about a blow from the possible increase of grain imports, and that (message) has gone to the high leadership."
                            U.S. President Donald Trump said in December that China will likely double its $24 billion in pre-trade war purchases of U.S. agricultural products as part of a Phase 1 trade deal to be signed this month.
                            Han, a vice agriculture minister and part of the negotiating team, said last month China would buy more U.S. wheat, rice and corn, leading to speculation that Beijing could increase annual quotas on the amount of wheat, corn and rice that can be imported at a tariff rate of 1%.
                            Han was quoted by Caixin on Tuesday as saying the quota is offered to global markets and "we won't adjust it for one country."
                            In 2017, before the trade war started, purchases of the three grains from the United States amounted to only around $534 million, leaving room for a significant rise in imports within the existing quotas.
                            "Although there's certainly types of high-quality wheat that China would look to import, maxing out the tariff rate quota would also weigh on domestic producers," said Darin Friedrichs, senior Asia analyst at INTL FCStone, in a note late on Monday.
                            "China will be facing a tough balancing act of trying to satisfy the U.S. demands for large agriculture purchases, while also not hurting the rural population."
                            Increasing sales of meat, ethanol, distillers grains and soybeans are likely to be more important for reaching the U.S. target for doubling farm exports to China, said Shengda's Meng.
                            U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said in December Beijing had committed to buy an additional $32 billion of American agricultural products over two years, or roughly $16 billion a year more than the 2017 baseline of $24 billion.
                            Soybeans, which are not covered by the grain quotas, made up more than half of China's agricultural purchases from the United States before the trade war.
                            China's annual quotas are 9.64 million tonnes for wheat, 7.2 million tonnes for corn and 5.32 million tonnes for rice.
                            The quota system has been heavily criticised by the United States, which last year won a World Trade Organisation ruling that China violated its obligation to administer the quota on a fair basis.----------------------------------------SO no extra this screw the bottom line up -----------------------------------dave


                            Last edited by davidm479; 01-07-2020, 10:48 AM.

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                            • #15
                              China has suspended it's goal of 10% ethanol in all cars as they say corn stocks of tightened amid poor production,corn stocks are down to 50mmt down from 200mmt just a few years ago,so why they say they will not increase quota's they may still buy more corn to run these new plants they've built or they may buy more ethanol and ddg's,have to believe the new e-plants there are happy about this announcement,china has a habit of saying one thing and doing another

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