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2019 Marketing Thread

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  • choreboy
    replied
    Went into town this morning and saw that the local co-op raised gasoline prices 19 cents a gallon. Amazing, I thought the U.S. was self sufficient
    in energy production. Or, at least it would take more then two days for imported crude could be shipped here, refined, and delivered to our local
    co-op. What is more amazing, E-85 went up also. I couldn't resist it, I stopped and asked the manager if an ethanol refinery had also been
    the victim of a terrorist attack which warranted a price increase in ethanol. He replied that the ethanol plant which supplies our area had raised
    there prices a dime a gallon. OK, I can see that. There margins have been pretty slim the last year.
    On returning home this evening from a 50 mile trip to watch and grandson play football, I see the co-op is at $2.59 for gas, while the Caseys Convenience
    Store down the road is $2.45. Maybe that quick profit by the co-op will be reflected in our dividends??????

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  • steffy
    replied
    also saudi suspended oil shipments to china because of the attacks because of supply,so whether china likes it or not they may need the US good as at least we are a reliable supplier

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  • steffy
    replied
    usda reports 260,000 mt beans sold to china on daily system,looks like china making some good will buys before talks start,maybe just maybe a deal will get done

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  • steffy
    replied
    brazil can start planting beans now as rust free period has passed,but it's very dry and hot and farmers are waiting for a good rain before they start,forcast has it staying hot a dry tho,if this keeps up to long then it will affect the 2nd crop of corn planted after bean harvest,another world event that needs to be watched is china's corn stocks thay now sit @ 56mmt down from 200mmt a couple years ago as they are abandoning their stock piling program,they also wan to start making ethanol but may lack the corn to do so as aggressively as they want add in the attacks on saudi energy and ethanol may be a big winner,It looks like demand for corn and beans could be returning throw in a poor crop here and SA and grains may have a glimmer of hope of better prices

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  • davidm479
    replied
    hummmm I am just thinking here WHAT IFhummmm what if no deal OR even better yet deal and we mess with TIWAN and CHINA says wo stick it a lot of cards on the table here I think their is still no deal -------------------------------------------dave

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  • steffy
    replied
    it's thought that china bot 600,000mt of US beans today,also they bot 10,000 mt of pork on the weekly export report,grains had good closes in spite of a hohum report,hog close limit up as far as the eye could see and cattle followed thru on the strong closes from earlier in the week.oct fats are about $5 off the lows and dec fat almost $7.packer tried to buy cattle 4-6 lower this week,with not much success had a call from a buyer offer $159 in the beef that would be $6 lower told him to go F*%! himself I did buy 5 load of tested open hfrs late last week and early this week 9 wts laid in for $120 if they don't work nothing will!

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  • steffy
    replied
    report ho hum decreased corn and bean yield slightly also decreased demand some,oc corn stocks up 100 mb,beans stocks down 65mb,nc corn stocks about unchanged bean stocks down115mb.oc world stocks up 1 mmt corn down 2 mmt beans,nc world stocks dowm about 1mmt corn down 2.5 mmt beans mmt = million metic tonnes

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  • steffy
    replied
    china was inquiring about buying some pork and beans

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  • MinnyFarmer
    replied
    Originally posted by jboett View Post
    Apparently Crop Ratings are only pertinent for one trading session. Hopefully the WASDE report is a little more friendly tomorrow than last month.
    By the looks of the market this morning someone got ahold of the report a little early. Beans +19? Or was there a tweet about China? Its hard to keep track of what actually moves the market anymore.

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  • jboett
    replied
    Apparently Crop Ratings are only pertinent for one trading session. Hopefully the WASDE report is a little more friendly tomorrow than last month.

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  • jboett
    replied
    It looks to me that crop ratings finally got the markets attention. It has appeared Chicago did not want to believe this situation or the ratings. Our area in Northwest IA has suffered irreversible damage from dry weather the last 10 days. I believe poorly developed root systems were not able to chase water down fast enough and we lost crop potential on hillsides, areas with the best stands after a very wet Spring. I am looking for corn yields around 150 with an APH of 185 and who knows on the beans. Corn was all planted by May 20th but just to many wet areas that lost crop this Spring.
    Last edited by jboett; 09-11-2019, 12:00 PM. Reason: Had wrong plant date. Was done on May 20th.

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  • steffy
    replied
    there's a reason wheat acres have been the lowest in 50 years,yield have not increased like other crops and prices are poor,the USA is no longer a major exporter as we have become the last resort for importers,he world is awash in wheat I don't see a lot of upside unless the corn crop is as bad as some think then wheat may get some space in the feed rations to draw down stocks

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  • PERCY
    replied
    Its really hard to believe that wheat was higher priced 50 years ago than it is today. The old joke about the genie in the bottle granting the farmer $6 wheat, and his not taking it, is at least that old. Lets not talk about input costs, or machinery values, its too depressing.

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  • 4450
    replied
    So I've got a little wheat left to sell. Is there any scenario where you see any chance of price rebounding some? At these prices, talking to guys locally, not much enthusiasm for planting wheat even though it's been mostly for rotational purposes anyway. First time in my 40+ years of farming I don't know if I'll plant any or not. I know since all mine will be planted after soybean harvest, the weather is going to have to be favorable for a decent planting date or I'm going to forget it.

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  • steffy
    replied
    france had a record wheat crop and more exportable supplies,ukrain has more for export,as does arg.our $ also keeps the USA from being competitive as does freight.A for the next report would'ntt hold my breath as they will probably still measure potential.and acres won't be changed until oct at the earliest,doubt we get a true pic of actual prod untill jan.Here the last two days we have'nt hit 70 and have dipped into the 40's at night.and it's been cloudy,not what a crop thats behind needs,6-10 &8-14 has below temps for a big chunck of the corn belt,my corn is just stating to dent(barely)and bean pods are still very small and flat still a few blooms on top of the plant

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