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2019 Marketing Thread

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  • swine fever is bad and getting worse,S korea has found cases recently,russia reported a farm near china border,veitnam,japan and other far east countries as well,it's bad and getting worse and it's probably just a matter of time until it's here,feed demand could take a big hit and it will take time to rebuild #'s

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    • good recovery for the grains,$9-9.04 resistance sx19,3.76-3.80 rest cz19,funds holding near record short position,freezing temps possible next week N plains,getting bears nervous today,bullish cof has cattle sharply higher 450 yearlings I've put together looking better all the time,placed on feed 91.5 % of last year looks like ranchers held on to cattle after the fire and had alot of grazing available,sept placements could also be down,jan-mar could have a hole to fill live cattle could see better prices in that time frame

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      • Delisting Chinese companies from the stock exchange is now the next step in trade war, according to the news. Doesn't China own Syngenta and Smithfield making them delisted as well? What about the National debt that is supposedly owned by China couldn't they just say pay us our money you owe us? Looks like we were just practicing in the middle east the last 28 years getting ready for the real war.
        Don't get tripped by what's behind you

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        • Deere to lay off 163 U.S. workers as trade war dents equipment demand

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          • delisting story from bloomburg more fake news,trade rep Navero said it was never considered,grains correcting after big rally and warmer drier forcast next week,but dropping corn stock over 300 millio bu could be a big deal

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            • Steffy, you should listen, or read the Commstock Report, by David Kruse. I listen to it on one of our area radio stations. He tells it like it is, and it
              is not pretty. You are continually sticking up for a bad apple. Bean prices, RIN waivers, ethanol prices. His actions are killing rural america.

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              • I read commstock from time to time,he's a fairly good market guy as he farms and has skin in the game,Trump is just doing what he said he'd do and what needs to be done,china, canada,europe,japan mexico about every county we trade with puts tarriffs on our goods esp ag and throws up barriers at every turn,he's redone nafta with usmca and the dem's won't bring it to a vote,he's redone trade deal with japan opening up more there to US ag,he's also very close to getting something done in europe,and chances are he gets something done with china as evidence of more bean sales there lately,has it hurt short term yes but it will be better long term as the playing field get's leveled,and he has tried to lessen the pain with the mfp pymts,I'd rather get my income form the market place but at least he has tried to lessen the pain and for guys like me who could'nt get all my crops planted this spring he help alot by getting mfp pymts for my unplanted acres and I now get another 15% form my crop ins for those pp acres.and I got to harvest some forage off those acres.low prices are also not all his fault,the out break of asf would have reduced demand any way and with it's rapid spread across asia is a big concern going forward,I do agree he dropped the ball on the rin waivers as he put the fox in charge of the hen house with his oil friendly picks to run the program.but even there he's trying to get that fixed and would expect an announcement fairly soon on some type of deal.All the dem's do is investigate,and resist,if they actually worked with him or at least talked with him to exchange ideas something might actually get done but their hatred of him is so deep they would rather sell out the country for their own political interests.

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                • Latest U.S.-Brazil Ethanol Twist Is Setback for American Farmers----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                  not so fast do we have a bate and switch going on ----------------------------------------dave


                  Terms of Trade is a daily newsletter that untangles a world embroiled in trade wars. Sign up here.
                  Brazil and the U.S. have been hammering out a deal for ethanol trade between the nations for months, and the latest twist in the saga could end up being a major setback for American farmers.
                  On Thursday, the Brazilian government reached a deal with its Congress to restrict the time-frame on imports of U.S. ethanol, according to a person familiar with the matter. Shipments with zero tariffs to Brazil’s Northeast region, the destination for about 80% of cargoes from the U.S., will be limited to the so-called off season for millers in the area, or when they’re not producing biofuel themselves from March to August.
                  The issue, though, is that the off season in the Northeast comes at a time when output is booming in the country’s Center-South, according to Tarcilo Rodrigues, director at ethanol trading firm Bioagencia. The latter region is the biggest biofuel-producing area for Brazil, and ample supplies during March-August keep prices seasonally lower, likely making them more competitive in the Northeast than the U.S. shipments, he said.
                  “This restriction cold be fatal in specific moments” for U.S. imports, Rodrigues said.
                  Brazil’s move is the latest in a series of blows to the U.S. ethanol industry, which is suffering from poor margins and tepid demand amid Donald Trump’s trade war with China.
                  While the Trump administration on Friday said it is taking action to boost U.S. demand for corn-based ethanol and soybean-based biodiesel, it may take the industry “time to recover” from the current downturn that’s curtailed production, according to Green Plains Inc. Chief Executive Officer Todd Becker. Still, the new U.S. government plan is also seeking to address trade issues, the administration said.
                  As of August, Brazil’s imports of U.S. ethanol had declined 23% this year to 1.1 billion liters. A drop in the value of the Brazilian real against the dollar has favored South American suppliers, Rodrigues said.


                  Last edited by davidm479; 10-04-2019, 11:13 PM.

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                  • [h=1]Trump signs deal with Japan to help U.S. farmers. (wlmailhtml:%7BC704D5B9-E012-46E9-AF1F-EE24945CFEFB%7Dmid://00000185/!x-usc:[url]https://axiomstrategies.us5.list-manage.com/track/click?u=30c3d8b01f5750351b518cee1&id=09ba7cf028&e= 80ca9e010e[/url])[/h] President Trump on Monday signed a limited trade agreement with Japan, a deal that he said would help America’s farmers and ranchers. The new deal, he said, was “a tremendous victory for both of our nations. It will create countless jobs, expand investment and commerce, reduce our trade deficit substantially, promote fairness and reciprocity, and unlock vast opportunities for growth.” US farmers have been operating at a disadvantage in Japan since Trump withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement, which had been negotiated by the Obama administration, but which Trump called a terrible deal for the US. The other 11 Pacific Rim countries, including big farm producers such as New Zealand and Canada, went ahead without the US and were getting preferential treatment in Japan. While rewarding American farmers, the new US-Japan deal does not resolve differences over trade in autos. Trump has said the two countries continue to work on a more comprehensive agreement.
                    Source: New York Post

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                    • looks like grains are finally responding to severe weather and end of growing season,cz19 if flirting with $4 and sx19 930,closes over those areas projext 4.20-25 cz19 and 9.70 beans ,report tomorrow could change everything but this report should start taking into account poorer yields

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                      • I hope this gets things going..for farm economy!
                        Positive impact for biofuels will hinge on details to be announced in final EPA rules.

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                        • report today bearish corn bullish beans but with corn down hard beans could'nt keep rally going,corn yield raised .2 bu/ac acres down slightly but usage lowered projected end stocks raised about 300 mb,yield is bs but we won't know for sure until jan reportstill say acres to high as is yield,but demand is a concern with large world stocks and a strong US$

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                          • We won't have good numbers in January.
                            The crops I am seeing, with the weather forecast indicates we will still be harvesting.

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                            • Some of our local bids (within 70miles) until Oct 18 are using basis levels of +0.10 to -0.30 these are feed plant, ethonal plants and local coop of course some of the difference is eaten by trucking and the wider basis facilities are just turning around and selling to the narrow basis.
                              Don't get tripped by what's behind you

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                              • grains bouncing back from yesterdays losses as some type of china deal may get done at least on a short term and the US$ looks like it's topped out,also storm impact is being better known

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