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2019 Marketing Thread

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  • corn up 3 again looks like trade is dismissing USDA bearish #'s,new highs for the move in corn.trade looking at hot and dry forcast next two weeks don't think this is bullish yet but if it drags on for a month thats another story

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    • Not that it has any impact on the big picture, but local acres are again getting smaller. River is flooding along us now, further upstream from the lake. Corn and beans that had managed to survive and weren't looking too bad, now under water. Will never be able to know but I would like to know how many acres in our county were destroyed by the water. Can't remember 93 that well now. I'm sure the flooding was worse but did it hang on as long as this has? May not be over yet. They're not wanting to let much out of the lakes because of flooding on down the Missouri and Mississippi. Now with the hurricane hitting down there, will they be more reluctant to open gates or let it keep backing up.

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      • If anyone can do face book, look at a couple photos of what the Harlan Dam is doing along hiway 183 just in Nebraska, a few years ago...well several, we used to tube down part of
        the Republican below the dam, to much water for this ole boy to even think about it!

        What I remember about 93 is that we were still harvesting wheat in August, but it seems like wheat planting and fall harvest went okay...like 4450, the bad memories fade...

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        • Hell dennis, seems like all my memories are fading. Senior citizen syndrome I guess.

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          • The old adage of "The market can stay irrational longer than a guy can stay solvent" is showing up the last couple weeks. Negative USDA reports market goes higher, Barry hit the gulf wiping out more of the supposedly plant crops and closing river shipping to export markets that weren't that big anyway cause we are importing to the Carolina's for the Chinese hog growers, and the ethonal plants can't get corn ie our basis levels, refiners can bump up the price of gas now because of the storm making ethanol higher and the market takes a dump.
            Don't get tripped by what's behind you

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            • markets were getting alittle over bought after big 2 day surge,the ease with that they took out resistance areas was impressive,would be surprised if corn did'nt take a run at previous highs on this move up.trade does'nt believe usda #'s ,strong basis says commercial end users don't either

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              • Originally posted by steffy View Post
                markets were getting alittle over bought after big 2 day surge,the ease with that they took out resistance areas was impressive,would be surprised if corn did'nt take a run at previous highs on this move up.trade does'nt believe usda #'s ,strong basis says commercial end users don't either
                Around here its been many many years since the ethanol plants have offered a positive basis, and the one that is surprising me the most is POET Bingham Lake. They're +0.04 for all of July and 0.00 basis for all of August. POET has never been known to leave itself short on corn supply, so the fact that they're working that hard to shake bushels loose says something. The Heron Lake ethanol plant is being aggressive too at -0.01 for both all its July and August contracts. Heron Lake has been splitting its months in half (first half, second half of the month delivery) and being aggressive on the near term contract, but now they've opened up two full months shows how much they're scrambling too. New Vision COOP has stopped selling any grain and is hoarding its supply as they also run feed mills in the area and they're sitting on their cheaper supply for fall to sell at a better margin. So it looks to me like eveyone is in agreement that prices are gonna run up as we approach fall, otherwise their actions right now would make no sense. If it was just one company, I don't know if I'd buy in yet, but when every grain destination in driving distance is fighting over the last kernel in the area you start to lean towards "the USDA is full of it" camp.

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                • The cool 8-14 forecast slapped the bulls upside the head. Don't forget that there is plenty of corn around. Farmers have been holding fairly tightly. USDA corn on hand numbers are generally quite accurate.

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                  • funds are acting like this is a normal year and trading weather like they normally do this is not a normal year however,acres are down stands are poor and crop conditions poor,commercial endusers know the crop is in trouble which is why basis is so strong,trade had better start listening to what some private consulants are saying about this crop,guy on agri talk this AM had 79.5 million harvested @ a 156 yield had done flyover with high resolution camera lots of bare dirt and very poor stands,a 12.4 b bu crop tightens up nc ending stocks fast,USDA won't do any field checks untill sept this year because crop is so far behind they are resurveying now so should have a better handle on acres come harvest. farmers did'nt sell the last break so doubt they will this one

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                    • I think we go back and close the gap in this run up at $4.19 in Dec. before heading back up with the August report. No real data to back this up, just gut feeling this market would like to fill the gap before heading to new highs. I been long on paper but currently out waiting for a lower entrance. Crops look pretty good around here from the road, but after three post planting trips across my my fields I think my area will struggle to average 150 with corn planted from May 6th to the 20th. Just too many holes from wet weather, not to mention 10% Prevent Plant on top of that. Looking at a 20% shortfall from my APH, thinking local corn market is quite nervous. We already have basis at +10 to 12 cents with a so called large carryout this year. I really don't think the carryout has been there or that the USDA had the correct yield numbers from last year. I believe those numbers may change going forward, but after the information kept corn at a lower price this marketing season.

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                      • Pro farmer comes out yesterday that from a reliable source from fsa current talley of pp acres if 7-8 million corn and 2-3 million beans total is 12 million so must be some other crops in there also .also said pp acres would probably increase.yesterdays early pop was likely tied to this story.more and more stories of drones and sat images that say corn crop is terribly over est by USDA,to many holes ,poor stands and alot of unplanted acres but market still gets slammed,just to much rain near term combined with a cooler long range to keep bears in control and weak longs liquidating,weather may keep crop from getting smaller but it's not going to produce a record yield either

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                        • I was looking at September options. It looks like one could buy a $4 call for .30. At the time I looked Sep. con was $.25 so .05 time value in my mind.
                          Would this be a good move and then sell some corn?

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                          • don't know if sept options give you enuf time they expire in less than a month,they would get you thru the aug crop report tho,would also go to a higher strike price to lessen cost the $4.00 is deep in the money

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                            • Reading this am wheat in US heading up price wise. Is the price movement enough to get winter wheat acres to bloom especially on PP ground that could be worked earlier not having to harvest anything.
                              Don't get tripped by what's behind you

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                              • this weather patter is going to have to change even with all to chemicals and fungicides all the rain we have bin having does no good if you lose your test weight in the last week of maturity it can hit 52 here real quick then its junk feed wheat at half price a big gamble here these days-------------------dave

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