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  • crop progress shows less than expected got planted forcast looks to stay wet and corns up 2 cents wtf.wheat improves 3 % pts g-ex after all the rain really?corn having a tough time getting thru last weeks highs looks like weak longs getting tested,but don't see where these prices are all that good to try and mud a crop in this late,PP still looks like best option to me,going to have to replant 1/2 of a field as to wet and cold to long,really don't see how crops are going to mature in time this fall,not around here any way

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    • I just finished spraying burndown on my planted corn yesterday and would say I lost 10 percent of what I planted to drown out already with another 10 percent at a half stand. The best corn I have looks like a normal May 5th crop, not June 5th. Third leaf just unfurling. I have two adjoining neighbors taking Prevent Plant on corn, but overall in this area I would guess less than 10 percent of acres end up there. I know people still trying to finish up corn this week around here in NW Iowa. I am wondering if the market on CZ19 is going to try to fill the gap down to 4.19 before climbing back to recent highs? I am long some Dec corn and should have cashed out the profits I saw last week, then waited for this to happen. I would look for a buying opportunity if we fill that gap. Just my opinion.

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      • vantage formally Informa came out with 84.5m planted corn acres thats 8 million less than and that was before this weeks rains and more in the forcast,they only dropped yield 2 bu/ac which with 30m acres still to plant as of june 2nd seems like a wtf.add in the break in prices and it gives farmers very little incentive to keep planting corn ,stocks to use probably drop under 10% even after you add in reduced demand,that would be one of the tightest on record and argue for prices in the mid $5 range,trade is reacting to much to tarrif talk and SA corn being bot be SE livestock producers,they seem to be in a state of denial as far as how horrificthis planting season is.

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        • How is this corn market going to react to this agreement with Mexico? Hopefully they give us back the top that got stopped when the tariff threat was announced. I would look for the open to be up tonight, just have to wait to see how much.

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          • EPA has granted the Reid Vapor Pressure waiver to E15, allowing it to be sold year-round.

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            • markets did'nt respond to mexican agreement like I thought,trade thinks better weather will get crop planted,trade waitting to see planting progress and crop ratings this afternoon and wasda report tomorrow

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              • Originally posted by steffy View Post
                markets did'nt respond to mexican agreement like I thought,trade thinks better weather will get crop planted,trade waitting to see planting progress and crop ratings this afternoon and wasda report tomorrow
                Yeah I don't know if they think just getting it in the ground will magically make it hit trendline yields? Yes, some more corn and beans got planted, and yes they will probably produce a crop, but no its not going to be anywhere near the last USDA projections. Hopefully the reports today and tomorrow will confirm this and not magically find acres or bushels.

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                • I'm still holding off selling corn, but do remember Minny, the prevent plant is the important number at this time. Even if corn planted now only yields 80 or 100 bu it is way different than a zero yield from pp.

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                  • Saw the European model prediction for June, July and August. Precip was average for most of the Midwest. Temp was below average for the I states, Nebraska, Missouri, and a big part of Ohio and Wisconsin. Which would be good news if the crop had been planted in April and May, but not so much when most has been planted in June.

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                    • See where the report said 83 planted, 77 excellent. Between what's flooded right now and the drowned out spots here, I'd say 77% might be alive but it sure wouldn't all be excellent.

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                      • Saturday we replanted about 10 percent of our corn acres. Most of it was on hillsides, where the seed rotted in the ground. To cold and to wet. Neighbor was out saturday working a quarter, for corn yet, and got stuck. They got the track tractor out, but the digger is still there. He says its siting on frost. That explains why our corn we replanted died, the permafrost wasn't gone yet. I have revised my yield expectations down. We are now hoping to achieve a 140 bushel per acre average on the corn ground. Soybeans? Don't mud them in, don't mud them in, don't mud them in, screw it, Plant the SOB's.

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                        • Is my math wrong 90 million acres multiplied by 83% is roughly 75 million acres? Let's say we have only a 5% reduction yield 172 x 95% = 163 bpa. 75 million x 163 = 12,255,000,000 bushels. 14.5 - 12.255 = 2.245 billion shortfall essentially taking ending stocks to zero. And the market takes prices lower. Just let's you know somebody doesn't want a repeat of 2012 where farmers made a little money.
                          Don't get tripped by what's behind you

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                          • still 17-18 million corn acres yet to be planted ,30million plus bean acres,SD only 64% planted,our final plant date was 2 weeks ago,have to think very little corn will still be planted here,62% emerged so if I do the math right only 1/2 of intended corrn plantings are out of the ground as of the middle of june.what kind of yield hit do you think thats going to cause?

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                            • usda only cuts corn acres 3 million but did cut yield to 166,lower use by 450 million ,put nc end stocks @ 1.675bb,,over 800mb less than last month,in my opinion acres will be cut in future reports as over 15 million acres still needed to be planted as of sunday,nc end stocks could easily drop below a billion bu,corn had a 20 cent trading range yesterday,volatility is here to stay for a while

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                              • I think yesterdays report is verification that the USDA sees the scope of this disaster in farm country. I don't recall yield estimates ever going down by more than 4 or 5 bushels between reports, and here they dropped it 10 bushels on the first in-season report. I believe this was a so to speak a warning shot across the bow for the market to wake up, this disaster is real. I believe a lot of these corn fields with wet spots will collect revenue insurance this fall the way they are, I doubt many will throw fungicides at this crop so the final yields will fall from this level even more.

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