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  • I like and agree with Steffy's optimism. My parents ended up doing about 50 acres of PP corn. With how the forecast is looking in SW mn right now, and how saturated we are after this weekends rains, I wouldn't be surprised if we ended up PP beans as well. We did manage to get basically all the corn for my brother and I in, but my parents ground is just too close to the Des Moines river and there is still water running through their field. The road on either side of the bridge by their field is also washed out, and all that gravel is sitting in the middle of that water so even if does go down its gonna be a while before we can do anything with that ground.

    IF E15 for summer gets approved and IF we lose even close to the bushels due to PP and just lower yields I agree its right to be bullish on corn. Around here we have ethanol plants with 20 cent basis which today means you can get 3.70 for corn. And with the way protein markets are going, while we might not be able to export feed to China, its sure looking like demand will pick up here as we all try to fill this protein shortfall. I don't see as many positives for beans, but I'm hoping something comes up. My "way outta left field" hope for beans is that the marine fuel standard demanding low sulfur fuel for all cargo ships starting in 2020 will lead to them pulling in more vegetable oil to get their bunker fuel in spec. I don't know if that one will come true, but I have seen articles about the fact that there isn't enough refining capacity to get the bunker fuel itself into that spec so they will have to blend something in, and vegetable oils/biodiesel seems to be the best option right now. But for now i'll keep cheering on the corn and hope beans get figured out along the way.

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    • Well, for those who have not looked, no big surprise in planting progress: 49% corn, 19% beans. It is confirmed anyway, that this year's crop will be sub-par.

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      • One or two of you might find this new Nouriel Roubini article about US China relations of interest:[url]https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/united-states-china-cold-war-deglobalization-by-nouriel-roubini-2019-05[/url]

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        • Was going to be helpful ff,so after a copy and paste to read myself before putting site address in the LINK box to make it easier to just click, project syndicate 404 page NOT found.

          0.86 in the gauge this am, observed with mist, so it isn't over, where the fat lady is, is anyone's guess!
          according to the site I use for local grain markets, up overnite...AND if you see any Kansas Senators with no ears, they were burning
          by MY thoughts last night, they think overnite is all it takes to make a "trade agreement", yet they p h u c k e d around for years deciding
          what to do with Cuba, NOW it needs to be done "overnite"...the only job they both have had the last 15 years is government...does THAT
          tell you anything about their knowledge of business?

          YES, glad to see an improvement in the grain markets, betting metals NOT the only reason!
          Last edited by dennis1; 05-21-2019, 05:46 AM.

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          • cz19 trades to highest level since last summer taking out 1st real strong resistance fund boys still short a ****load of corn,they have to be close to puking big time as their positions are all under water,heard a guy from bam weather on the radio yesterday that said this is a hugh low pressure trough that extends all the way to russia and is going to take a while to clear out.at 'least the 1st part of june

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            • Up nine at one point too many guys went to town and sold dropped back to up a nickle now up six
              Don't get tripped by what's behind you

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              • how much wheat crop was lost today to high water in OK and Kansas 8 9 inches in places puts water where it does not belong interstate 40 was also closed for a time today because of high water I am sure some corn is also effected now a lot of this water is coming down the Arkansas to reach a high of around 32 feet that's pre 15 flood high two of my sons stand to loose 500 acres of wheat to this one his first crop the other his third what a welcome to farming -------------------------------dave

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                • Sorry to hear that Dave. Tough times for many in agriculture right now. I've had friends near retirement already say they wish they had quit prior to this year, It looks like another drain to the equity they had built up.

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                  • farm aid sounds confusing no payment if you pp,seems like one should get something if you can't plant thru no fault of your own,pretty sure ins co's,seed and chemical co's had a say in this,don't think one should get a full payment since you won't have the expense if you planted but pp pymt is based off prices that are lower based off tarrif's

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                    • Yeah Steffy I don't know if the people in the Admin making this up as they go realize how prices influence insurance. People at the FSA do, but I have to think if the FSA had more of a say in this it would just go off APH and historical acres. Not this thing I'm hearing where they're gonna pick the prices county by county. The other thing the Administration doesn't seem to realize is that people have been hurting for almost a year now because of this, so waiting until July and then spreading it over 3 payments doesn't seem terribly helpful either if the actual goal is to help farmers. I'm betting most of the MFP payments from last year went to help cover bills that people were behind on, so its not like we have that money laying around.

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                      • also this is going to be spread out over 3 times,so say we don't get the crop planted and prices go up no 2nd or 3rd payment and remember if you take the PP option you don't get the increase in price,whatever your pp pymt is it is,no revenue provision for pp acres.we will most certainly have alot of pp,hav'nt seen the sun for 8 days and have barely hit 50 for a high in that time fame,close to 4 inches additional rain,more sun,mon,tue.doubt we get back in the fields before the 5-6 of june

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                        • Has any recent farm program made sense? Or maybe I'm just getting too old but each one I think how can they come up with any worse cluster flop but somehow they keep managing to.
                          1.80 of hard rain last night. Makes this last week total north of 6. Very little wheat planted around here on ground that floods. Flood prone ground is primarily row crop. We are about 10 miles upstream from where the river enters the lake, but the lake is high enough that it's slowing the flow. A lot of the low ground below us is going to stay flooded now. Lake fills up much more, it's going to be coming to fields near us.

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                          • another 3/4's last night makes 10 day total near 5 inches,some places in the state recieved 2-5 inches overnight,this is turning into a nightmare,more tonight thru wed,then it at least starts to warm up,did mud in 75 acres of corn yesterday,why I don't know as the stuff I planted 2 weeks ago is barely sprouted,I'm really starting to doubt it will mature in time.I'm going to have alot of PP can't get to some fields don't know how I would get product to them if I could get a tractor and planter to the field,weeds also getting big,fields won't support a sprayer

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                            • 5 1/2 " in rain gauge this afternoon went from perfect day for kid's grad party yesterday to today with river up outof banks and still rising all corn in but now with some on bottom ground might be replanting some no beans planted closer to taking PP every day.
                              Don't get tripped by what's behind you

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                              • Well the $64 question is how high will corn go? Will beans follow?

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