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  • grains sharply higher on reports china is offering to buy $30 billion in additional US products,china bot 24 billion in 2017 before trade war so this amount would be over double,corn,wheat ,pork,ddg's ,ethanol and beef could see big increase's in exports,havr to wonder if the funds who have been selling wheat big time will have a deer in the head lights look today

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    • Just checked prices at the local coop where I do business. Thing I don't understand is the lousy wheat price and our local basis is 28 cents. I don't remember when it's been that narrow. I thought a wide basis was a sign they didn't need the wheat now and a narrow meant they were wanting it. So what am I not understanding?

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      • your understanding things fine.funds are selling wheat lately why who knows fundamentals don't justify the hard break as of late.If china buys 50 billion in ag products to narrow trade deficet all ag goods are to cheap

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        • Originally posted by 4450 View Post
          Just checked prices at the local coop where I do business. Thing I don't understand is the lousy wheat price and our local basis is 28 cents. I don't remember when it's been that narrow. I thought a wide basis was a sign they didn't need the wheat now and a narrow meant they were wanting it. So what am I not understanding?
          Seems like sometimes they drop the basis right before the price starts going up, hoping to get some quick sales before the increase. That's what our local cargill does sometimes, then as the price goes up, they keep jacking the basis. Kinda tells me that the big boys hear that train coming down the tracks before us locals. Would be nice if we all drank from the same information well. The only way I've found to beat 'em is to do basis contracts when they drop the basis, then set the futures price later. Might work 75% of the time- trouble is the 25% that it doesn't work is what you remember, and it pisses you off!!

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          • I do the same. It is surprising the percentage of the time the offsetting futures purchase will also make money.

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            • that is what I do to avoid storing, works well 4 me

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              • we are down to the point you better grab your as s with both hands--------------------dave

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                • What in the world has happened to wheat? I have not locked in nearly enough and now it just is going down like a popped balloon. If it keeps this up either I will have to take harvest price revenue or cut it and bale it for forage. The way my wheat is looking this year it may not make anything as it has been under water since the day we drilled it. If it keeps dropping we are to the level of utterly ridiculous prices. I have read on here that every acre will be farmed no matter what the prices go down to. To that I just respond, "wanna bet?"

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                  • remember, the venerable Melvin Orr always stated that wheat is a weed, you pizz on it and it will grow, my wheat looks like its been to the battle of Armageddon and pizz won't do the trick this year. Hopeful my aggressive posture of forward bookings last fall, I can fill???????????

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                    • will make the decision this week to either leave mine or plow it up its bin under water five times since I planted it and not had seven days of sunshine and the certified seed did not do the trick this year time to call the insurance lady and move on now projecting us for 6 days of more rain and ice a person just has to love farming to under stand these years-------------------------------------------------------------------------------dave

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                      • Well Tom and Dave I guess misery loves company and in all my years I have seen wheat take a beating and still come back and make something. However, this year has thrown everything at it and half a yield with these prices ain't going to cut it no way no how. The old maxim that you can't feed people from an empty cupboard comes to mind. Hard to grow a crop when you can not even come close to the cost of production. If corn and soybeans follow this pattern it will look like the 80's again.

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                        • I have no idea why the funds are so aggressive selling wheat .some say it is because our competators prices are gpoing down,but then I hear the only wheat left in russia is in Siberia and farmers are not selling and if they could it would be impossible to get it to ports.some cite higher spring wheat acres here and canada,but looking out my window and long range forcasts that looks highly unlikely.add in lowest WW acres in 125 years and horrible crop conditions and production looks to drop.There are also signs demand is picking up,USDA caught up on export sales last fri and wheat exceded high end of expecations and yesterdays inspections # was one of thehighest in a while at close to 800,000 tonnes ,and china may buy some US wheat if trade war gets resolves.funds love to sell wheat and they normally press it to hard to the down side .wheat looks undervaled to me with the whole growing season ahead,but i've been saying that for some time,options are the only safe way to play unless one has very deep pockets

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                          • Just heard this morning that 51% of the wheat in Ks. is good to excellent. In my backyard I would say the good to excellent is higher than that. But that's because the only decent looking wheat is what was planted early and that's not that much. I've got wheat that still hasn't emerged yet. Acres are way down and with all the bitter cold and ice we've had, I'm afraid a lot of that late planted stuff that was just a spike peeking through is going to be done for. My own concern now is that I get enough bushels to fill what I forward contracted. Shortly after harvest could contract some for 5 something local cash price and thought I'd lock 30% of my expected crop. I'll be doing good to get enough to fill that. Looks to me like with the saturated subsoil we've got, most of the late planted acres will be destroyed and put to corn or beans.

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                            • with this kind of break you are probably right,Or it will be hayed or grazed out in he south

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                              • What type of cash price are y'all seeing in your area. Here is is $4.06 today.

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