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2019 Marketing Thread

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  • 2019 Marketing Thread

    Here dave, let's start fresh.

  • #2
    I must say so far 2019 has been a great year for my marketing! I have not made one mistake all year!

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    • #3
      we have a new market man at helm a great new year coming will be a little rough here at the first then it will even out so YEAH lets start a new Marketing Thread the year of change has started--------------------------------dave

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      • #4
        beans starting the new year higher,weather forcast has drier weather returning so yield may continue to be lowered,also news out of china shows their economy slowing which may lend credibility to idea trump is winning the trade war,crude rebounding from a lower start now $2 off it's lows,stocks also lower but rebounding s&p 40 off the lows,looks like volatility is alive and well

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        • #5
          grains following thru to upside,sh19 are testing rest. closes over over 910 could cause more buying,that's about a 50% retracement of the break,fund rebalancing starts next tue.it's thought that funds will be selling corn and wheat,equities wild again dow down over 600 at one time,has recovered about 1/2 at this time,apple causing the biggest head winds as forcast sales are lowered of weak china sales ,trade war gets the blame,cattle retreating off slowing global growth and ideas holiday shortened movement creating more ready #'s,,but cutouts sharply higher again yesterday so would think hard breaks will be well supported,will be intereting to see what cash does this week,packers need to ramp up kills and feedlots seem to be current,with wts below a year ago,bot some kc wht yesterday jut took profits of a dime

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          • #6
            fc stone cuts brzil bean crop to 116mmt from 120 in dec,other have it down to 110-114 and cite if rains don't return soon it may be catastophic ,some areas have'nt had a good rain for 30 days and it's bee hot,rest for sh19 now at 918 closes above that target 940 area,ch19 at rest @ 382 ,next minor rest,@3.87 followed by $4.,looks like we may have a full fledged weather market in the offing

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            • #7
              I think any bullish story in beans will be short lived unless there are MAJOR production issues in SA, which would just lead to more production here. However, when money is moved around at large rates interesting things can happen. Look at Natural Gas. I could see something like that happening in beans, just not near that steep of a move. But if everything lines up we could have upward movement but probably would still fall hard after a short time. Beans were disappointing in my area. I only averaged 51 bpa which was disappointing considering the amount of rain we had. A friend of mine only averaged 53 or so and he has the green thumb for beans around here. I was expecting close to 60. I was hating the 3.7 beans, turns out they were only 2 bushels off the late 4's and had no damage whereas the 4's had 2 - 5 % damage. I am still going late 4's this year however. The late corn only made 139. I was disappointed in that but considering the first round of fertilizer was applied two months before planting due to field issues I guess that is not to bad and I just side dressed at the normal rate.

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              • #8
                steffy take a look at this a True game changer-----------------https://www.igb.illinois.edu/article/scientists-engineer-shortcut-ph... ----------------WOW--------------put in the 19 thread this time-----------------dave

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                • #9
                  Impressive close in beans today,they closed over resistance area would not be surprised to see them take a run at recent highs,meal even got into the act ,close above 320 basis march needed to confirm low but that would break it out of a long sidways bottom,corn also getting close to taking out it;s sideways base,close over 386 is needed there $4. would be next target if it does.cattle acted sloppy the last few days outside markets sited but with dow up 800 at one time kinda a head scratcher,I think funds just alittle to long,fundamentals don't seem like they've changed much,wathch the cattle sale at ft pierre for a while today feeders looked sharply higher compared to a couple weeks ago

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                  • #10
                    thunk'n this is what 479 was say'n:

                    https://www.igb.illinois.edu/article...crop-growth-40

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                    • #11
                      It states with this advancement could feed an additional 200 million people. But the people that need fed now don't have any money to buy food. So even though the additional bushels produced will drive prices low, they still won't have any money to purchase it with. Given the genetics and technology we have today, mother nature doesn't have to cooperate too much for us to produce a surplus. What would be the benefit of producing even more?

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                      • #12
                        Hey guys, long time reader, first time poster. I saw that same article about the photosynthesis boost and thought the same thing. World hunger hasn't been a supply issue for years, its a mix of transporting food to far flung regions where the infrastructure doesn't support bulk shipments and the money it takes to ship food from the US to where its needed. And as for generating more crop, I sent that link to a friend of mine and said "great, now we can produce even bigger surpluses and just burn all the beans and corn for heat because I'm not going to be able to afford LP if we don't find a use for all that crop.

                        There are a lot of things we can do, it doesn't mean we always should.

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                        • #13
                          The reality of it is the oversimplification that "a farmer feeds" what ever number your farm bureau or other promotion wants to plug in the advertisement. most soy - corn farmers grow a "feedstock" that is used to produce food. To produce cheap food, the meat, milk industries decided to cut out the middleman "the farmer", who used to add value to that feedstock by actually producing food, and have vertically integrated the system, and are more than happy to let you sell them the feedstock for what it costs you to produce it or less. It used to be farms had to have hogs, dairy, cattle to add value to their cheap grain,,,,,,, then you just had to be part of an ethanol plant to add value.......... now that those opportunities are gone, barring some major industrial use for our grain, weather disaster here or abroad, we will continue to have the potential to be swimming in surplus.................mmmmmmmm...... seems this movie has played before at a theatre somewhere..........be interesting to see how the farmer welfare needed to survive the potential sheet storm the next decade or two will play since we have gone from the american gothic version of farming when saving the families on the farm, Mr douglas of green acres fame farming his half section or two that the american public was sold in the 80s and 90s when now tax dollars will be spent on farmers with their hands out to keep the 300,000 dollar combines, and the 200,000 dollar tractors out in the field farming their 5,000 and 10,000 acres plus.

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                          • #14
                            beans still following thru weather concerns still mounting for SA,energies sharply higher and $ sharply lower adds support,also US/China meeting today and tommorrow sounds like things are suppose to go well,but who knows.Beans about 15 cents from recent highs,so if you did'nt get some sales made at the old highs and you need some cash might want to have some orders in

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                            • #15
                              steffy,,,,markets dont seem to want to buy the rumor of impending trade break thru???????, ,,,,,, does that mean we won't sell the fact if something happens,,, or have they bought into this as much as they will............ you think there is more upside in corn near term, or are we going to linger in this 3.75 to 3.83 area until something moves it one way or the other?????

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