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2018 Markets

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  • 2018 Markets

    HAPPY YEAR YEARS ALL ! ! ! ! !
    I'll start the new year looking forward for Carl

    Save-est bet,
    I see is sell soybeans on rally's til SA Brazil proves this wrong.

    More of the same,
    US $$$ traded to a IH #9010 this is probably a little low, don't think its a red combine but as close as I can get for the red guys.

    Status Quo,
    Corn maintains it's current trading channel range til springish

    The Surpriser,
    Many will think I've lost it tho I see those soft cookies on my Grampa's pitchfork leading corn out of the 2 holer. This has nothing to do with the current ice box weather.

    The put it in reverse/the flip flop,
    Is Al Gore preaching his global warning.
    Bins fly's to Florida to comfort old Al !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Tho could this be what gives wheat its story ?
    Yes that's confusing, yes I meant it that way, no I'm not explain it.
    #THESpringwheatparty ? Don't live in the past.

    Crude, I really wanna check this off my bucket list in 2018.
    Nat Gas or Natty,,, just remember Santa Sleigh ! ! !

    Edit to add:
    Will crude rally to $80-100 or more ?
    $150 crude of 2008 pretty much sent the world economy into the crash and burn mode.
    Crude bounced $95ish for 4 years as QE1-2-3 raged wild.
    Our economy is booming with interest rates rising, point blunt will Trump sit back and let sky rocketing energy prices bury our economy AGAIN ? ? ?
    Make America great again is gonna be pretty thought to do with $100 crude*****
    $100 crude would push Tesla into orbit or maybe this is way too past tense.

    Trump's tax plan will it = Ronald Regan's Regannomic ? ? ?
    Carter to Regan like Obama to Trump ? ? ?
    Last edited by Tas; 01-01-2018, 01:46 PM.

  • #2
    If crude goes up will soybeans follow? Seemed that year it was costing me $100.00 to fill my pickup with diesel was one of my most profitable.


    • #3
      beans should go up if crude continues to rally if history is any guide.volume continues to be light except for march wheat has traded more contracts that mar beans today,bears must be nervous about severe cold weather.cattle opened firm out of the gate,cah cattle traded 2-3 higher late friday,cold weather hampers wt gain also,packers enter the week still short on inventory,feedlots appear to have upper hand,just depends on how many captive cattle packers have to start the month.


      • #4
        Bean should have been solidly higher all day,,, its pretty much following the pattern and the past few weeks = weak beans = Brazil's big crop.
        This morning nothing but lets buy a few to start the year off with the HFT traders having their fun = reread above. My redneck Norweigin read is weak beans

        Wheat is like 2 kids trying to pull their little buddy out after falling into the 2 holer, its a mess tho someone has to do it.

        C/B/Wheat we shipped only 79 mb as of this morning report, its not enough and nothing like last years 100mb +++ shipped many weeks in a row.
        This is nothing but that Brazil Herpes crop that keeps taking OUR exports. I nicknamed it THE Herpes crop for a darn good reason.
        It took SM, farm media in general til give or take Thanksgiving to make a finally click that beans export WERE/ARE (past tense) in trouble.
        This is why I personally #TuneOuttheBS and stick to THE facts.

        ALOT of changes I've heard in general as to the tone of media/SM since Thanksgiving.
        My guess we will have more changes to come,,, my guess already started nearly a month ago on a Friday reading between the lines.
        Changes to include how you and I sign and return contract paper works.....
        ND's PSC stands up for its producers VERY well )
        Its kinda alittle joke tho as I'm on a gals poop list because I questioned some said changes.


        • #5
          beef cutouts sharply higher again yesterday,feeder index jumped $8.dtn calls cattle futures 50-$1 higher,feeders could gap higher on the big surge in index.beef clearance over the holidays seems better than expected,packers shortbot,cold weather isn't helping wt gains either,about the only fly in the oinment I see is winter storms curbing demand nearterm.but my little voice tells me cattle are about to explode to the upside,and seasonals would back me up.wheres your stop TAS


          • #6
            The ratio of lurkers/readers to posters on this thread is 143 to 1 they mite need to change the name to
            The morning after Christmas I sent a text to a person "So 2018 the year of the ????? party"
            I'm trying to decide If I should bring hard liquor or soft liquor and be early the the party ! ! ! ! ! ?
            OK you know I'm a bean bear, corn well its a new year an its still boring, so where's the party ?


            • #7
              quite a few parties to attend,just not many in ag,only cotton,but copper,palladium, crude oil are also on a moon ship and silver have had good pops to,but have not made contract highs or even close to them.
              Beef cutouts sharply higher again,2.5-$ cash cattle yet,packers may wait until the 11th hour again,but the big jump in cutouts this week should give feedlots upper hand,still watching the wheat market,did'nt buy it when thought I should have as don't trade holiday markets,bitter cold temps gave it a good pop,but another story developing is in seasonal warmth in russia/ukrain,has wheat trying to break dormancy,big cuts to production there could really get wheat rolling.


              • #8
                Steffy that Black Sea area wheat deal I covered that in the first post above with THE surprise
                The put it in reverse/the flip flop,
                Is Al Gore preaching his global warning.
                Bins fly's to Florida to comfort old Al !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
                Tho could this be what gives wheat its story ?
                Yes that's confusing, yes I meant it that way, no I'm not explain it.
                #THESpringwheatparty ? Don't live in the past.

                We're in the ice box,,, Black Sea is like spring time warm temps and the wheat STILL growing ! ! ! ! !
                Flip/flop this (covered above) put THEM. in the ice box say April Fools dayish which is Easter Sunday.
                Freeze Kansas mmmmmm hmmmmmm mite do something, FREEZE RUSSIA ? I don't think I need to explain that.
                Now don't take an inch and go 7 miles tho is something to keep an eye on.

                I did that first post above on Monday, I wanted my views done before hearing any one else in the new.
                I hosted #THEwheatparty last year, the host for 2018 is up for grabs ! ! ! ! !
                Remember last year when I said one needs to be early to the party with spring wheat ?
                CARL am I looking forward enough for you now ?


                • #9
                  I checked out some kc wheat options,an at the money may call is 20 cents one 60 cents out of the money is 8 cents.if you could buy the @ the money and sell the out of the money for a dime would be a cheap low risk play


                  • #10
                    Wheat in So IL is in grave danger. -7. Dry. No snow Cover. Wind. Most late planted and not well established and dry after planting. I think alot of it will be failed. Some fields look like bare dirt, the stuff has shrunk so much. I have 450 acres that was planted early and had some growth to it. Was going to spread N and get it on before this snow/rain event, but looks like it could be rain on frozen ground....and I don't want to spread nitrogen on wheat that might not make it. Oh well, it made for a good cover crop what had some growth to it.

                    Corn acres in this area probably be down over 30% 2018 based on seed sales and contacts with suppliers. Stay warm....Tie a string on it if you go outside.
                    Last edited by DB_51; 02-16-2018, 03:05 PM.


                    • #11
                      we had some -30 below temps last week,very little snow cover,ground dry also,winter kill a definite possibility,
                      wheat tried to break when beans did today but both have since bounced back,beans have sold off all 3 days this week only to bounce back,would think if we could close over 9.70 basis march might see a run higher.


                      • #12
                        Db wouldn't' it be best just to spray round-up on that wheat and get its over with ? J/K
                        My last 2 years road trip I'd rates the wheat as 80-90% Astro Turf, this year sounds quite different.
                        Them old fund boy been short soft wheat like for 2.5 years, maybe the weather ain't much maybe it is.
                        If I was big time short the winter wheats I'd be watching this ice box winter pretty dare close*****
                        IF they wanna stay so short I'm sure Db would ship them a 55 gallon drum of his super-lube for FREE
                        I've heard rumors of Russian beauties walking wheat fields in their bikinis, golly it must be warm over there

                        Say anyone else notice the changes in farm radio from #MMRChip to #ChipATB ?
                        ATB - means after the bell.
                        Last edited by Tas; 01-04-2018, 01:11 PM.


                        • #13
                          I bit of old history from the dark times in Agriculture,

                          "On this day 38 years ago President Jimmy Carter embargoed U.S. grain sales to Russia ... now Russia is like an endless spigot of wheat"

                          Ronald Reagan lifted the embargo shortly after he took office tho the damage was already done.
                          We the United States of American thought we could use food to control the world.
                          It back fired,,, as we became known as an UN-reliable supply of grains to feed the world.
                          With production ramping up world wide aiding by the super strong US $$$ vs the other world currency's.
                          Last edited by Tas; 01-04-2018, 01:18 PM.


                          • #14
                            So cattle boys, who's going to take it upon them self's and find the big old island top in fats ? ? ?
                            What's happened this week in cattle is about as bearish as bearish gets as my "We're Leaving or bye -bye kicks into high gear.
                            Weather was yet again in play,,, YET weights were UP and over 1 years ago levels = cheap corn


                            • #15
                              Steffy I'll put a case of beer on Bison ?