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Will Corn Acreage Enter Free Fall?

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  • Will Corn Acreage Enter Free Fall?

    On "U.S. Farm Report" this weekend, two market analysts talked about the possibility there will be a massive shift among U.S. farmers from corn to soybeans this spring.

    Is this a fair assessment of how farmers in your area are thinking? Or do you anticipate a much more subtle shift to soybeans where it makes sense, with a healthy supply of acreage still being planted to corn for 2015?

    http://www.agweb.com/article/will-corn-acreage-enter-free-fall-NAA-nate-birt/

  • #2
    I think it's about time we quit telling the market what we're thinking\.
    Last edited by db51; 02-02-2015, 04:14 PM.

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    • #3
      lmfao, its a little late I'm afraid. They know before we know wtf is going on.

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      • #4
        Changing some acres to haying and grazing

        would at least make some Net Income per acre.


        Originally posted by Nate Birt View Post
        On "U.S. Farm Report" this weekend, two market analysts talked about the possibility there will be a massive shift among U.S. farmers from corn to soybeans this spring.

        Is this a fair assessment of how farmers in your area are thinking? Or do you anticipate a much more subtle shift to soybeans where it makes sense, with a healthy supply of acreage still being planted to corn for 2015?

        http://www.agweb.com/article/will-corn-acreage-enter-free-fall-NAA-nate-birt/

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        • #5
          Early last fall the corn/bean ratio was 2.67/1 currently its 2.35/1 (steadily dropping since early fall? Corn is slowly, quietly buying acres even without a rally as bean fall faster. You hear different guys running the numbers and its turning more to plant corn. Another 1.3 ma of CRP came out toss in a 1 million or 2 of cotton going to Dixieland corn. Spring wheat is only about 5.20 cash plus a nasty KY Jelly treatment on protein right now. Spring looks to be early so we'll get some extra acres out of PP.

          Who's gonna be the first one to summer fallow ? ? ?
          I'll put my bet on Db as he a tad older and maybe needs to slow down alittle ! ! !

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          • #6
            wrightmark is wrong most of the time but this is the most sense he has made in a long time. will guys roll back to pasture is the question??

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            • #7
              One would think there would be better choices than corn for farmland that has volatile yields with lower overall yield history. Yet due to crop insurance guarantees along with tough margins in many alternative crops, if there is winter moisture, corn acres in these areas just might hang in there.
              “Democracy is the worst form of government, -------------------------------except for all the others.”

              ― Winston S. Churchill

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              • #8
                I'm probably going to be the Idiot of the Year....but why I'm planting 100% soybeans.

                1) There are a bunch of guys thinking they can 'Yield" their way out of bad price and they think their higher yield levels can be achieved with corn.

                I hope I'm right....Being a Jewish Year of Jubilee....perhaps we should all just let it all lay idle. At least with beans and wheat I'll have NO crop insurance costs.....and plenty of storage.

                It's Time to STARVE THE BEAST! Insurance, seed, fertilizer, and equipment dealers.

                Let the Games Begin. Good Luck and God Speed.

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                • #9
                  Heck even a worthless management type grazer

                  will net 400lbs of beef gain per acre in the midwest.
                  ( the Good ones Net 700 to 1,200 lbs of beef gain per acre )

                  on hay, say Japanese Millett for instance....it's gonna yield 17 to 30 tons per acre of hay or graze.

                  more than likely the corn croppies gonna plead for more help from "Uncle." MO

                  it's pretty tough for some to get out of an AC cab and do physical Work and physical land / grazing Management.



                  Originally posted by sbundrick View Post
                  wrightmark is wrong most of the time but this is the most sense he has made in a long time. will guys roll back to pasture is the question??

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                  • #10
                    Hey Mr. Know it all. Maybe you should put a pencil to the fertility needs to keep grazing land in shape. Get your land switched over now to pasture so you'll be ready for the next collapse in beef prices.

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                    • #11
                      Pray to Jesus and Run the Cattle,

                      that's thee Only 2 ways you can change tomorrow. MO


                      "Uncle" gonna bail ya db51.
                      then u can whine bout the others on welfare, ebt cards etc..

                      course a farmer like you might just be smart enough to put some grazing legumes with the grass and never have to fertilize again.
                      ( granted there's a lot of "synthetic" supposed "farmers" that ain't that smart 2. )

                      Originally posted by db51 View Post
                      Hey Mr. Know it all. Maybe you should put a pencil to the fertility needs to keep grazing land in shape. Get your land switched over now to pasture so you'll be ready for the next collapse in beef prices.
                      Last edited by WrightMark; 02-02-2015, 08:41 PM.

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                      • #12
                        Unfortunately here if you are grazing your grass hard you will be buying P&K besides N.

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                        • #13
                          I typically have better luck growing corn than beans. At current prices, I can make money with corn, but not beans.

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                          • #14
                            I may plant some type of forage on some of my dryland acres that was intended to corn.We are real dry so am concerned about having enuf grass for the summer,crop ins won't pay the bills,does'nt cost much to plant sudan,.
                            Talking to my banker yesterday ,he's hearing more guys talking planting a lot more beans ,some even talking all beans.As guys are coming in and updating balance sheets ,their seeing a lot of red,I personally think he Dakotas will plant less corn,poor basis,high imputs,dry soils,declining balance statements .most breakevens are 4.50 to $5.with ave yields ,take 20-30 bu off that and it really gets ugly,it's not which crop makes the most it's which one will lose the least.
                            FYI NC corn bid 90 under dec,so$3.17 cash and that's with dec up 7 cent today.so 140 bu corn would lose somewhere around $200./ac,and 140 would be considered a ave crop here.

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