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Marketing 2015

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  • market will trade 11.00 USDA #'s for about a minute then go back to tradeing weather,unless their uber bullish,in which case they'll lock limit up for the rest of the day


    • Bam! Another one hits. Now I have something to do in January...I hope.


      • At 11:00 this morning, USDA issued the following projections:
        Old-crop Corn Carryout= 1.779, vs estimates of 1.809 bil avg, range= 1.726-1.880, June= 1.876.
        New-crop Corn Carryout= 1.599, vs 1.508 bil avg, range= 1.040-1.910, June= 1.771.
        2015 US Corn Production= 13.530, vs 13.395 bil avg, range= 12.890-13.565, June= 13.630, 2014= 14.216.
        Yield= 166.8 vs 165.1 avg, range= 160.0-166.8, June= 166.8, 2014= 171.0.

        ZCZ15 finished up 6 cents. It looks like these are the highest levels seen for Dec 15 corn since the first week in July 2014. It would seem to me almost all bearish positions are currently losing positions. That's too bad.


        • I could build a bullish case, and could build a bearish case. Yes we closed .06 higher in ZCZ but for a report day it was a pretty subdued trade and some things I did not like after from what I see was a slightly bullish report.

          We have expelled a massive amount of energy, more so corn to rally ZCZ .87 from low to high to hit the 4.50 target. This is UN-like ANYTHING we saw in the drought market, again I will say "We're the Beef" MUCH MUCH MORE SO BEANS*****

          To me it seems the numbers of NATTER'S expecting a 2012 type of rally is growing. Those folks need to do a comparison our stock AND world stocks from 2012 to 2015 and with the SA corn coming north we are reminded that we're in a "World Market"

          IMVSO opinion we are at the point where the BULLS needs to PROVE them self's and step up to the buying plate or its gonna fall under its own weight. Friday I said mellow out have some beer and sit back, I will add don't get to mellow and do not forget target orders.

          With this rally on OUR weather troubles,,,,, what do you think SA will do ? ? ? And remember they seemed to ignore NAT's memo to summer fallow some hectares because of low prices this past season**********


          • Do you guys really think C Ending Stocks=1.6bb and SB Ending Stocks=425mb are bullish??? Whatever... Anyway you slice it, when CZ5 hit 450, it was good for my cattle shorts. lol.


            • It's beginning to look like those lofty ending stocks numbers were wishful thinking only. Which guess was wrong, production, or demand? Just think if all those turkeys hadn't got sick.

              The livestock and E-plants have had plenty of time to lock in their grain needs at fire sale prices for the next two years. If they didn't...oh well, they shouldn't have been so greedy.

              The ball bounces both ways remember.


              • This price rally has been a gift for U.S. farmers. A little over a month and a half many of the marketing experts on this site were touting corn with a 2 in front of it! The weather this year has been very different but it has not been good for many. If it should turn hot and dry then it will be Katie bar the door. Big difference locking in a profit than locking in a loss!


                • SIllinois forecasts for development of a high pressure ridge setting up next week and hot temps had more to do with the market rally Friday than any govt. report. Watch nat gas for a barometer of the future of that development.


                  • their is beans going in down like gang busters with little or no insurance that last date was Jjune 25 then take one percet per day off not much left that $10 draw is doing its thing I BELEVE THEIR WILL BE HEAVY HEARTS IN THE END ---------------------------------dave


                    • "IMVSO opinion we are at the point where the BULLS needs to PROVE them self's and step up to the buying plate or its gonna fall under its own weight. Friday I said mellow out have some beer and sit back, I will add don't get to mellow and do not forget target orders."

                      This no drama,,, here's THE FACTS.

                      Long---Short- spec funds, futures only
                      414k---439k June 9th
                      432k---224K July 7th

                      There has been tons of talk about "The Funds are Buying" in farm media land, it sounds REALLY BULLISH doesn't it ? ? ? Gets the average Joe/Jane really bullish. Makes a eye/ear catching headlines, headlines are great for rating***** This does not mean there great for your marketing plan................. Remember the headlines of 2012*****

                      Now that 18k of net NEW buying IS NOT JACK MANURE in 4 weeks. I've been harping about short covering the facts are above, you be the Judge. Short covering rallies only go so far,,, hint we saw this at Christmas time...............

                      For tonight's trade, I'm going to have a sell order in some where's above 4.50 ZCZ hoping for alittle help from the HFT for a run above, dimeish stop if I'm wrongish ! ! !


                      • It is new buying, zcz15 is well supported.

                        I would rather see this slow chop up rather than what happened in 2012.


                        • corn acts better than beans,beans broke harder last week came storming back but faltered on the close and at resistance areas.bulls and bears will debate yield and acres for some time ,but USDA will have the last word next month when they do actual field surveys and resurvey some states planting est.WE probably won't know full extent until Jan.To miuch rain has been the focus but it need to keep raining in the western belt to ensure they have great yields to make up for the ecb.we haven't had a rain for a couple of weeks now,it was extremely hot over the weekend with close to 100 degree temps we stay mid to upper 90's thru wed then back off to upper 80's then return to 90's later on.Don't see much rain in our forcast.we're not hurting yet but we will be tasseling next week and if we don't have a good rain things will start turning south


                          • Interesting day in Dec15 corn. Tried to sell off right away in the morning, came back, hit pretty strong resistance just below $4.50, tried to sell off again just before noon, rallied back to resistance at that $4.50 again, then went through that $4.50 a little after noon. Tried to sell off again but was well supported at $4.50-$4.51.

                            I thought it would chop along for a week a two in that $4.49-$4.39 range, maybe we'll chop around that $4.75-$4.50 money for awhile instead.

                            I don't think we'll see '15 corn with a three in front of it again for awhile.

                            edit to add...Crop ratings out today show the crop is in worse shape than last week, it's also falling further behind in maturity.

                            Weekly corn exports at the high end of trade expectations and above what is needed to exceed USDA guesses.

                            We will be chopping around that $4.50-$4.75 money for awhile.
                            Last edited by 82; 07-13-2015, 08:54 PM.


                            • Just looked at CBOT trading and surprised with the run up with soy and protein. I had been hoping for a break in both. Everyone seems to be centered on the short spec position and their covering those shorts for run up. Underlying that is the trade just as short on their needs for protein and feed. Saturday my stepson and wife came over to get in the pool. He essentially runs a privately held protein firm that does well in excess of 10 figure sales/year before the decimal and growing. I had bought some meal when talking to one of his employees at a Redbirds game and got out way to soon. The trade is short and that "grain is getting walked out" of those hog lots and poultry operations with little or no forward coverage. N think protein has some real legs as long crop conditions in jeopardy. He said every break will be bought and good margins can disappear in a hurry. This avian bird situation drove the price of layers and turkeys up big time. It was unfortunate for those who lost their flocks but it did increase profitability for the rest. The market would have soared today for not the rain in Chitown, but they know "rain makes grain." I think weather will continue to be dicey and the fun has yet to begin.


                              • USDA adjustments to corn, soybean numbers lift futures markets

                                Jul 13, 2015 Forrest Laws | Delta Farm Press


                                The July USDA Supply/Demand Report gaveth and it taketh away. On the giving side, as far as the markets were concerned, USDA lowered its 2015/16 corn production forecast by 100 million bushels to reflect lower planted and harvested acreage in the June 30 Acreage Report.

                                But USDA also reduced feed and residual use and exports by about 50 million bushels while raising corn consumption for ethanol by 25 million bushels because of an expected increase in gasoline sales projected by the Energy Information Administration.

                                Soybean stocks were also reduced by 75 million bushels, which was enough – along with some better news on the international monetary front – to trigger a rally in the Chicago grain futures trading pits.

                                Corn futures rose following the release of the report Friday (July 10) with July corn closing at $4.27 a bushel and September at $4.34 per bushel or both up 6 cents per bushel. That’s a far cry from the average futures prices farmers became accustomed to in 2012 and 2013 but still better than $2- or $3-per bushel corn.

                                Get the whole article....from above address site.