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  • The biggest local elevator was at all time low stocks a month ago according to an employee that has worked the last 30 years for them. I have no idea how much corn is out there in farmers bins but this rally has shook some loose as I see some guys loading corn out the last couple days.

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    • I don't ever believe all the crap about farmers holding so much grain. Total stocks were 4.4 billion and half of that was supposedly in farmers bins. Which they only survey I think it was 4000 farmers. The commercials they have about 95% accuracy. Farmers they rely on a small percentage surveyed and you all know about how many farmers replied... Would be interesting to know but they won't give you an answer on that... 4000 surveyed 287 responded... Lol. All the free price later gets the commercials to have it on their books verse the unknown in farmers storage. Besides its not like farmers are storing 15 billion bushel and 3 billion beans. What's left regardless is a small percentage of total crop. It's just a way to justify widening basis. When you look at the real picture if there was that much grain being sold those are all shorts offsetting the buying and yet we still went higher. If no farmer would have sold anything it wouldn't have let the funds escape their short positions as orderly. I'll be awaiting the commitment of trades report. However price action lately has been about as good as a bull market could be. Having profit taking early and rally late. Don't kid yourself there was 4000 sell lots at December high at 4.40. Corn beans and wheat hit pretty big resistance areas day of or next day of the report. These areas will be key

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      • I should clarify. The elevator had record low stocks for the early June timeframe. I imagine they've been lower in September.

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        • Originally posted by db51 View Post
          You couldn't find a skirt on planet earth big enough to hide your big head behind 48....and I can certainly believe the truck stops and bars would be where you look. I doubt if a sober woman or one that isn't a hooker would get anywhere near you.
          db51: Bad mouth hookers all you want. Hookers are prettier than wives. Hookers don't have headaches. Hookers can not take you for half of what you're worth. Hookers will come out and drive a truck/grain cart for you. Wives play golf/bingo. Just saying...

          The bottom line is that I prolly have at least 100X more contact with skirts than you and natty. Annnnddddd....I don't hide behind them like natty does.

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          • FWIW, My wife flashes me her b**bs as she pulls along side the combine with the cart, she's way better looking than most hookers, she's a freak in bed and only getting better with age, she's earned half of what we're worth, aaaaaaaand, this is a big one, NO herpesgonapshyilade to worry about. She hates bingo and golf, loves drinking beer, swears like a sailor, and she's a great cook.

            Not sure what this has to do with selling grain but just thought I'd share.

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            • OK you guys ready for a fxcking post ?
              48's for sure gonna have some comments of this one !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
              GMART gonna drop dead.

              "THE CLIFF GAP"

              Over nearly the last 3 years I've been pointing out many bearish factors in the markets. NOW FAIR IS FAIR,,, I've looked at this gap many many times just wondering when,,, it is time to point out one very bullish factor/target.

              This gap was left in July of 2013 when ZCN went of the board and ZNU became the lead month in a massive inverse market***** "THE CLIFF" This gap is way more then the size of Texas. Gap from,,,,,, 5.50 to 6.48 on a weekly ZC chart.

              YES that's a pretty wild number***** BUT IT WILL BE A TARGET. To test this target we will need some major help from the fund boys net *****NEW***** buying of corn and IMO crop rating continue to drop as will as EXPORTS really picking up. We have had some massive short covering in all our markets, with some net new buying showing up after the report. How much will take some time to know for sure, actions from Tuesday's report will not be known til Monday afternoon with the CFTC delayed holiday report. I just have a feeling continued short covering is masking the net new buying..... We do not get 2 all time record volume days in corn in one week with the fund boys sitting on their hands**********

              Fund traders want the markets to move, whether higher or lower,,, most of this winter has been really boring,,,,, even very boring report re-actions til the last one. Right now its moving.

              AGAIN that's a pretty dam wild donkey target,,,,, but I learned in 2007/08 NOT to under estimate what that fund money can do.

              Now I've said I would ignore everything but money flows for a bit,,, when I'm done ignoring,,, you can bet I'll point out crude, E/RBOB spread and SA

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              • 82, you do realize if your wife reads that your going to be missing a left testicle !!!!!
                BTW had a G/F like that last year, on the weekends, I could have been on a "Viagra dip"

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                • LMFAO....That's real funny 48. You said you were picking up your hookers at the Truck Stop. I've been to many a truck stop, and all I can say what is hanging around there selling the poontang aren't exactly something I would want to tie into. Someone should report you to the Centers for Disease Control, cause you're probably a walking petri dish, or you've developed immunity after all these years...maybe you could donate a blood sample for a new vaccine.

                  As for the headaches.....did you ever think that quite possibly it was a fake headache just so they didn't have to do it with you? Mine never has a headache....and a little pre-nuptial research you might have prevented giving over half the farm.

                  BTW, Thanks again for the photos of your two hot truck driving hookers.

                  48driver.jpg48driver2.jpg
                  Last edited by db51; 07-03-2015, 12:59 PM.

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                  • Another 2.9 in 35minutes

                    Road in front of our shop

                    road.jpg

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                    • Ummmmmmmmm, 3 day weekend and then what in corn and soy? Any guesses???????????

                      Finally dry enough to spray here. Sprayers and mowers running all over the place. Still a bit of water standing in a very few spots.
                      “Democracy is the worst form of government, -------------------------------except for all the others.”

                      ― Winston S. Churchill

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                      • It is early and not knowing the result of Greece, but from I-70 has been hit really hard. I do not have a position in CBOT; but inclined to think a very firm overnight. DB's area is much larger than his localized area. I have never seen the lower Ms. this high at this time of the year. A lot of those good acres in the mid south will never be replanted. I have read comments that they will replant for a late crop. We are going to have an early frost as well with the volcanic areas in Indonesia. With all of the bs going on in this country we are due for an epic disaster. China's economy is getting more distressed. They have a lot of grain stocks relative to us -- but have a lot more mouths to feed. I am starting to sound like OBG and Malthusian. We have way too much uncovered future needs. It reminds me of 1972 and look at the multiples in that year and following year. As a friend said that is '''an Oklahoma guarantee, if you go broke with the advice you get to keep all of the pieces."

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                        • mfsman, I'm on record here stating the same. the word "UNCERTAINTY" is the sword of damocles hanging over this crop year. Nobody knows. We are still in the first or possibly entering the second inning of these fireworks. Collateral damages have been etched in the farming community homeland and the carryover scenario is very much in peril. Mother Hubbard's cupboards will not be replentished this year and that's when the real action begins.With farmers storing what is out there in 2015 these commercials had better get there azzez into gear and get long and cover there needs in these grain pits.Farmers will have these markets by the ballz come this fall if these grains don't tack on a few bucks across the board, wheat will get dragged up in concert to a lesser degree mind you, but when everything else becomes expensive, wheat becomes a replacement entity to fill the void so no matter how the wheat situation is on the world stage, the US will dictate with there situation in hand.

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                          • Here's a good webpage for the commitment of trader's weekly report

                            http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/quikstrike/commitment-of-traders-agricultural.html

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                            • Originally posted by Tas View Post
                              82, you do realize if your wife reads that your going to be missing a left testicle !!!!!
                              BTW had a G/F like that last year, on the weekends, I could have been on a "Viagra dip"
                              No I won't. What's Viagra?

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                              • Originally posted by jabber1 View Post
                                Ummmmmmmmm, 3 day weekend and then what in corn and soy? Any guesses???????????

                                Finally dry enough to spray here. Sprayers and mowers running all over the place. Still a bit of water standing in a very few spots.
                                Our reality is we have less stocks on hand a smaller crop coming in. This was going to be a reality even without the current weather events unfolding. Farmers responded to market signals this spring. PB had a good piece on AW about this. This reality will remain in effect well into 2016.

                                No hurry to sell large amounts of anything IMHO, reward the market as you need money only, this market will continue chop higher. Remember the US tax payer has a large portion of this crop and the next supported at $4.54 cash.

                                The days are getting shorter. Is a estimated 60 day supply really burdensome? I'm off to the lake, no worries.

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