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  • We're PRAYING TO GOD that you guys THINK we're in the majority and plant every acre you can simply because of the HUGE financial reward you will be getting come harvest. lmfao. Go for it bro

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    • This year we did not get any winter wheat planted so we are now committed to 2/3 of our acres to soybeans. If it were not for the simple fact that I want to keep some semblance of a rotation it would be all soybeans. Db is right unless the price of corn rises this year it is not going to pencil out. However, I firmly believe that we will not have another stellar corn growing year and with less acres the price will rise but I also don't want to put all of my eggs in one basket either! This may very well be the year where our Ag commodities will be more affected by outside influences I.e. Value of the dollar, balance of trade, world market collapse than simply supply and demand. If this is the case it is darned if you do or darned if you don't.

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      • SIF....we don't need a stellar crop to further depress prices...just an AVERAGE crop will do that. There isn't a single bullish sign out there anywhere for higher corn prices....there is a *****load of corn unsold sitting in bins across the fruited plains....It isn't going away.....and there is no need to "buy" corn acres....they're doing that by lowering soybean price. Good luck folks. My crop insurance premium was huge this year and I HAVE NEVER HAD A SOYBEAN CLAIM! With all beans, there's $ 70K in the bank and just take CAT coverage.

        Moisture in Cornbelt is more than adequate.....it's shaping up to be a mild winter.....We did manage 250 acres of SRW...put the first N on it two weeks ago......I do have one 160 acre field that I'm considering milo.....

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        • What if you ARE the majority...i will assume u have locked up $10+ for 2015 beans otherwise I hate to see what kind of bean price u will be looking at come harvest

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          • GG, Im pretty much all beans for 15 bc of expansion/rotation/logistics but I am 40% sold at 11.50. My trick will be doing bean on beans with nongmo following rr beans. Have to do some more b on in 16 or wheat to get my rotation in line.

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            • I think the traditional "corn guys" are going to go all in on corn. They figure 240 bu/acre corn is a given and in most years can barely muster a 50 bu/bean average. They'll take all the additional money from their fuel bill savings and throw it at the corn in hopes of cranking another 10-15 bu/acre out of it. I don't have any new crop beans sold. Still sitting on over half of 2014 corn. Why do you assume a need to sell at harvest. It's all a rolling of the dice....I have no idea what the outcome will be. I simply don't see corn being anything but a big loser. Slap a county yield average on down here and it's not going to be pretty. Our soils and weather history favors better odds by far with beans. If I lived in Champaign IL and didn't have $ 450/acre rent...I'd be planting corn.

              With the US Dollar strength, Falling Oil (and it ain't coming back barring a shooting war) All Commodities are going to take a beating IMHO.....But I admit I don't know Jack.

              There will be some selling opportunities somewhere between planting and harvest. I'm hoping to get alot of wheat planted this fall. Just hoping wheat planted now comes through winter without any snow cover. It's really wet here. Frost coming out of the ground big time...
              Last edited by db51; 01-18-2015, 09:20 PM.

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              • Db, there's those that have to plant corn and hope that they blow out yields like they did for the past few to cash flow them 300.00 rents, there's some of these doeheads that travel miles with there green chit to do just that, I passed down the 300.00 offer on a farm I lost to a sale. I saidvk that chit!
                I'm all in beans with an insurance pay out of 90% on a 54/bu 5 year olympic average and we've been lucky too skirt any droughts, so I've got my policy in place just in case. Corn would be a whole different scenario, I don't grow much field corn and my 5 year ave payout would be around 140bu ac. that would send one right to the poor house trying to recover just your input costs.
                The US dollar is making things more expensive to the importers of grain and its going to get worse. US wheat is the most expensive in the world right now and with a dearth of that in your bins, feed costs are going to stagnate with lowering of other farm gate products.
                I'm forward contracted 50 of production which is very aggressive but I know our party in commodities is hemorraging as the CRB/CRY Index continues to crater as the world is in contraction deflation mode.The FED has removed all the chips off the table and this global liquidity low interest borrowing party is over.Leveraging in the stock markets is its lowest in decades compliments of such that's why you see huge volatility swings, nobody is winning at this fools game as all the retail buyers are out of the markets and the fund managers all duke it out in the UFC battle ring in that chithole NY.
                Last edited by Tom In Ont; 01-19-2015, 05:54 AM.

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                • Tom: I thought you grew contract SEED CORN??? I DKJ about seed corn, but I would think that would be pretty impervious to the slide in commodity corn.

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                  • Originally posted by db51 View Post
                    Same plan here. What are you applying for fertilizer on the bean on bean rotation. I put 150 lbs Potash and 50 lbs of DAP on the cornstalks going to beans. I planted all of my beans on 15" rows last year, but just bought a Houke Hitch and another 15' JD No-till drill to run in tandem. I'm a corn growing fool....but I can't get it to pencil...guys calculating based on last year and 2013 yields will be in for a bloodbath come harvest if we even have a halfway normal growing season....coupled with ***** blowing up right and left on the financial front.
                    Dave, that's basically what I threw down on my fields just to keep them up, I plant 7.5 inch rows and pop 225,000, I know that's heavy but I don't get the lodging when I go lighter. Last year I planted one field at that 225 and next to it a bean that was 15.00 more / bag and went around 180000 and there was a 10 bu difference, that heavier winning out so I guess its sight specific with the land type you are dealing with and sticking with what works best for you.I plant as early as possibly to allow you a nice window for replanting if need be. Most guys will wait for the ground to get really warm, I'm not that guy. These varieties today are really resilient even if they get pancaked into the ground, thus another reason to plant on the thicker side.

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                    • Originally posted by 48 View Post
                      Tom: I thought you grew contract SEED CORN??? I DKJ about seed corn, but I would think that would be pretty impervious to the slide in commodity corn.
                      Pioneer pulled out of our county and is in defensive mode with huge acreage reductions this year, in 2013 we grew 24 thousand acres, now down to 5400.Too much of everything around the world right now, over capacity and under utilization is the new norm thanks to the FED. Seed corn is sold predicated upon CBOT prices with a .60 premium/bu attached for your guinea pig status.
                      My question is, is America going into protectionism mode hogging the acreage?
                      And as DB so astutely points out, there's a chitload of stuff sitting in them bins around the country awaiting for an opportunity to glut the market again and the trade knows this.Farmers are flush with money/old crop and did there best to avoided uncle sam last year.
                      Last edited by Tom In Ont; 01-19-2015, 06:16 AM.

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                      • china cancelled another 174,000mt beans today,over 400,000mt the last 2 days,beans have now taken out last weeks lows,some support in the low to mid 9.70 basis march,major support 9.20's wich is contrct lows.,
                        so tom if your only paid a prem over the board why haven't seed costs gone down,as Monsanto's productions cost would be lower.

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                        • The seed company answer is r&d and regulatory costs keep rising and those costs are a greater percentage of their total cost than the raw seed. The real answer is the price will only drop if they can't sell it for two consecutive years. If they don't sell near as much for this springs planting, they will cut seed corn acres and rebag all the leftover seed for the following spring. If they have trouble selling it for spring 2016 they might drop the price. I wouldn't be holding my breath for that just yet.

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                          • Talked to a seed salesman last Friday who claimed he has sold about 50% of normal amount of corn seed for this time of year. I told him I was ready to order if he knocked 20% off per bag price that he quoted me in December. He wasn't ready to make that deal.

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                            • to save seed costs one could buy seed with less traits,why pay for bt for root worm if your not planting corn on corn,could just plant straight round up ready,would just have to scout for corn bores,I don't know how much seed is available with less traits as seed co's.want to sell you the expensive stuff and don't produce as much of the lesser traited varities.straight roundup corn is 1$120-170 per unit cheaper.seed co.s haad a big carryover last year as they had a big production year,so there will be a lot of rebagged seed,don't know how many years they can hold it over before germ goes to hell.

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                              • Originally posted by steffy View Post
                                to save seed costs one could buy seed with less traits,why pay for bt for root worm if your not planting corn on corn,could just plant straight round up ready,would just have to scout for corn bores,I don't know how much seed is available with less traits as seed co's.want to sell you the expensive stuff and don't produce as much of the lesser traited varities.straight roundup corn is 1$120-170 per unit cheaper.seed co.s haad a big carryover last year as they had a big production year,so there will be a lot of rebagged seed,don't know how many years they can hold it over before germ goes to hell.
                                steffy: In a C-SB rotation adult RW beetles have been laying their eggs in SB's for years now.

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