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  • so how bad in the crops in Indiana,talked to a guy this morn who thought corn there would yield less than the drought year of 2012,he aid the whole state wa a disaster,any truth to this

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    • looking at a weekly bean charts,looks like a big down flag(down flags are not bearish)1st target is 10.70,next is 12.52,theres also a gap around 1140 that need to be filled.
      Weekly corn chart also looks like a down flag,4.50 then 5.25 look like upside targets.I would be patient with nc sales,any sales you presently have made should be covered with call options,I think the bulls are about ready to go griz hunting

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      • dec corn had an outside day up today,went back and looked to see what novy beans high was last month it was 961.6,so we're only 3 cents away from having a monthly reversal,some very strong tech signals occurring .It will be interesting to see how much crop conditions go down today,declines of 2-3 pts could get the bears heading for cover.

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        • I don't think Brock will be touting the $7.50(or whatever it was) fall soybean price scenario quite as much. Novie beans have popped $0.60 in a little over a week. The fundamental story in beans has quite possibly taken a 180 degree turn. It is quite obvious that we won't carry 350 mbu into the '15 crop year and if we keep getting data that shows yield is slipping below 45 bpa, the move has legs.

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          • OC SB are running positive basis for exactly what tin cans were meant for=if you want them, you've got to bid for them. Buuuttt...that's OC. There's no shortage of OC SB, and when it cools off this fall if the Avian Influenza hits chickens hard again, we will be swimming in SB. MO doesn't mean squat. KS doesn't mean squat. If there was a problem in the 3I's, MN, or NE, that would be a different story. There may be a little short term pop in SB. There may even be a sustained pop in both OC and NC SB depending on the June 30 Quarterly Stocks and Acres Report. BBBBUUUUTTT as long as NC Ending Stocks are in the 350-400mb range, SB aren't going anywhere long term.

            Annnnddd...FWIW...Brock exited their 2015 SB hedges, but they are still hedged on 25% of 2016.

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            • Originally posted by steffy View Post
              48,our basis,runs 85-a $ under at times,65 under right now it will help.and there aren't any big feedlots around here so any modified ddg's will be for sale.plus the small town it's being built by is going to see it's population grow and some good paying jobs will help the local ecocomy.It's been well documented how much an e plant will benefit the local ecomomy.
              steffy: Everything you posted applies to Poet in Mitchell, SD, but their harvest basis is still -55 to -58.

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              • 48 our harvest basis is 70 under,which is good for us,i've never seen 55 under for a harvest basis like poet in Mitchel,so the E plant will raise our basis.

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                • indy is in trouble also 48,and ks and mo do matter when such a wide area is in trouble,crop conditions are going down as are yields,oc basis is strong as beans are not there,1/4 stocks may show that,last year crop was over est as was last years carryout,next years carry will be no where near 500mb,take 5 million acres out,drop yield 2 bu on the rest and we're back to a sub 200mb carry,that doesn't mean 7.50 beans, more like 12.50 ob

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                  • grains started the nite higher on lower crop rating's at first blush they didn't seem to bad about a 2% drop for both corn and beans,but after lookin at the state breakdowns,Il and In dropped 8-15% depending on the crop,so if 48 is right (the I states are the only ones that matter)prices should continue to work higher,price set back ome by morning off a sharply higher US$,but corn is back 5-7 higher ,wheat 6-8 higher,pretty impressive price action

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                    • My thoughts exactly steffy. A 1% gain or loss in one of the I states is way more than when MN or one of the Dakota's experience the same. They do not off set each other on a one for one basis. You can't have it both ways.

                      The US is losing way more production this year, and gaining less vs.the last two years because of weather. We just are. And if those same states planted less corn than what the USDA claimed they were going to in March, the overall lost corn production will also be greater.

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                      • Originally posted by steffy View Post
                        grains started the nite higher on lower crop rating's at first blush they didn't seem to bad about a 2% drop for both corn and beans,but after lookin at the state breakdowns,Il and In dropped 8-15% depending on the crop,so if 48 is right (the I states are the only ones that matter)prices should continue to work higher,price set back ome by morning off a sharply higher US$,but corn is back 5-7 higher ,wheat 6-8 higher,pretty impressive price action
                        steffy:

                        Those are Crop Condition Ratings...NOT acres planted:

                        Major
                        States 6/14 6/21 Change Last Year Change

                        IL 70 60 -10 73 -13
                        IN 71 58 -13 70 -12
                        IA 80 80 0 76 +4 No change and 4% better than last year AAAANNNDD most important state!!!!!!!!!!!!!
                        MN 74 76 +2 64 +12 +2% better and +12% better than last year and just the northward extension of IA!!!!!!!
                        MO 34 34 0 70 -36 A lot of MO's SB are double cropped after wheat, so all this MO hysteria is over rated!!!!!!!!
                        NE 68 68 0 69 -1 No change and only -1% worse than last year. Annnnddd lots of high yield IRRIGATED SB!!!!
                        OH 69 55 -14 76 -21 Here's the state you should be worried about...NOT MO. But, OH is not a I or a M or a N. The only thing OH is important on is SRW WHEAT...period. Annnddd....we're talking SB...not SRW wheat!!!!!!!!!!!

                        Hit Reply With Quote To View.
                        Last edited by 48; 06-23-2015, 01:51 PM.

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                        • Saw a tweet that conditions are setting up for a possible derecho event tomorrow running from southeast Iowa through most of Illinois and Indiana. Wonder if that would screw up the "greenhouse effect" ?

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                          • Originally posted by bigticket1 View Post
                            Saw a tweet that conditions are setting up for a possible derecho event tomorrow running from southeast Iowa through most of Illinois and Indiana. Wonder if that would screw up the "greenhouse effect" ?
                            Aren't derechos high wind events? Nothing is tall enough to worry about lodging. If anything the wind would help to dry these wet areas out.

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                            • If the high wind is in an area where the corn is growing as fast as my corn is right now lodging would be the least of concerns from a high wind event. My corn is so brittle from the fast growth rate it would just break off. It doesn't matter what brand or number it is either. Isn't that called green snap?

                              At least it would save the pain and agony of trying to harvest the twisted up chit.

                              edit to add...MN and Northern IA being 4% and 12% better than last year don't mean squat as you would say 48. Not only don't we mean squat, last year was a disaster.
                              Last edited by 82; 06-23-2015, 02:35 PM.

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                              • 48 I know their crop condition ratings,in,il dropped 8-15% in 1 week,this was suppose to be the garden spot,more rain ,big rains maybe,means conditions decline again next week and it stays cool and cloudy not exactly what the crop needs.,still 9 million acre of beans to plant,who knows how many more drown out.then theres the tech''s,nc corn and beans have possible monthly reversals,funds are caught short,over did it to the downside,now their trapped,corn looks like it's building a W bottom,if confirmed would have oc going to $4. real fast.I starting to get bullish so watch out I smell blood in the water,griz blood that is,let the feeding frency begin

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