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  • #76
    Milo was trading a premium $ 0.63 to corn down here until harvest when it tanked and now the bid is UNDER corn by $ 0.15.

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    • #77
      beans had a nice bounce off the lows yesterday and followed thru nicely overnight only to giver er all back,it's tradeing back down to yesterdays lows,if that gives way look for a quick break,mar meal has already taken out it'slows so beans probably will also.

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      • #78
        One of those days . . .

        ()
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        • #79
          Originally posted by steffy View Post
          beans had a nice bounce off the lows yesterday and followed thru nicely overnight only to giver er all back,it's tradeing back down to yesterdays lows,if that gives way look for a quick break,mar meal has already taken out it'slows so beans probably will also.
          Kinda funny I'm actually getting a little bullish corn and you are posting some bearish comments. Keep in mind my outlook is typically 6-12 months. My main concerns are oil and the dollar. But with that said I think the market is making a mistake not getting 90 million corn acres. I'm neutral beans right now even with the likely increase in acres, demand impresses me with such large global supplies. We have grown 4 record crops in a row now if you factor the U.S. and SA. What is the likelihood we can continue that trend?????

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          • #80
            I suppose the trade traded soybeans down today because they were disappointed we have only reached 92% of the USDA recently raised sales guess for the year already. I read they were disappointed in the NOPA crush number today too, it wasn't the record largest ever, it only tied the record set back in Dec 2013 at 165.4 million bushels.

            Looks like Kermit might have to get used to that position.

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            • #81
              Originally posted by 82 View Post
              I suppose the trade traded soybeans down today because they were disappointed we have only reached 92% of the USDA recently raised sales guess for the year already. I read they were disappointed in the NOPA crush number today too, it wasn't the record largest ever, it only tied the record set back in Dec 2013 at 165.4 million bushels.

              Looks like Kermit might have to get used to that position.
              Considering beans are $3-4 cheaper then last year I would also take the crush number as a little disappointing. However I expect to see demand last deeper into the year since I feel it has died off the last few years just from inability to source supply June/July/August
              Last edited by IN555; 01-15-2015, 07:51 PM.

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              • #82
                I've got a feeling that dominos are beginning to fall. And this Swiss action is just the latest shock. I find it rather strange that some of the big name traders are calling for oil, stock market to go up, while others say that it will collapse farther. I think we are about 2 minutes before midnight and this Cinderella ball is almost finished. When the masks come off some folks are going to be horrified to find out who their dance partner really was! Just make sure when this game of musical chairs end you and your family have a seat.

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                • #83
                  SIF, I agree and think this global debt debacle ready to raise its head as it has in the past. Regardless of the protestations of Freedom Fluke that we can sustain greater debt to maintain the bizzaro world -- it is a come home to Jesus meeting. There has to be some truth to life and economies and have been on the edge of the fact for some time. It has been escalated in the last six years which have raised the stakes. There could be a near term bounce in the event that the crude holds at $44 -- if not game is on. The Swiss are taking care of the Swiss and not responsible for the rest of Europe. They do not have a standing army but all citizens are armed.

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                  • #84
                    Not that I disagree with Sill or MFS but I have been hearing this debt cry for ten years now and nothing has come close to TEOTWAWKI. The only thing that is a little different today is the oil devaluation. If you really think oil will stay at these levels through the spring then maybe. But oil has a funny way of correcting.

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                    • #85
                      I'm in this camp and its Camp Deflation Bigtime, oils devaluation will continue unabated "BECAUSE...." the world is deleveraging everything that the FED has given them undeserving.Global capacity is well beyond its meager consumption as economies continue to contract out dualing one another with falling currencies thinking this will put them ahead of the herd.This will have enormous negative implications to agri commodity prices this year. The CRB index is in free fall, just look at Dr. Copper the barometer for results. Strange that it is that precious metals are rising in this environment, seems that they are the only refuge in troubled times.

                      http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CRY:IND/chart

                      http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bond-market-warning-huge-trouble-183400551.html
                      Last edited by Tom In Ont; 01-16-2015, 05:13 AM.

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                      • #86
                        Tom the author of that Yahoo article makes a failed argument. He had me going for a bit but then claims the rising deficit continues to be a major influence. He is absolutely wrong, the deficit has been falling dramatically.

                        If you look at a lifetime chart of the commodity index as oppose to a five year you linked to we are actually close to being within the trend.

                        Neither of those two links do much to convince me of impending deflation doom.

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                        • #87
                          Originally posted by BinswOH View Post
                          Tom the author of that Yahoo article makes a failed argument. He had me going for a bit but then claims the rising deficit continues to be a major influence. He is absolutely wrong, the deficit has been falling dramatically.

                          If you look at a lifetime chart of the commodity index as oppose to a five year you linked to we are actually close to being within the trend.

                          Neither of those two links do much to convince me of impending deflation doom.
                          Been to the grain elevator lately Bins?
                          Much of the state side oil industry has just taken a 50% cut in their financial statement assets...those operating
                          like there was no tomorrow are already turning off the lights and closing doors...more people looking for jobs..
                          maybe this Keystone project will get to fill that void..haha...but then the politicians can put our some new numbers..

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                          • #88
                            Originally posted by IN555 View Post
                            Considering beans are $3-4 cheaper then last year I would also take the crush number as a little disappointing. However I expect to see demand last deeper into the year since I feel it has died off the last few years just from inability to source supply June/July/August
                            Two years in a row, same number same record. Maybe that's all the US is capable of crushing? We might need more crushing capacity in the US to break that record. And to keep up with demand and production.

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                            • #89
                              If these price levels last- Those relying on income and spending from the petroleum industry and commodity crops are in for some tough times.

                              My guess is also that stocks may have some troubling times ahead in general (if cheap money policies from the fed was the goose that drove stocks to this level what else can be done to maintain these levels?). Ohhhhhh yeah, maybe stocks can maintain themselves from corp profits rather than bein' seen as a "less bad" investment for investors who can't gain from CDs or bonds?

                              After all- the 3 above are retracing from LIFETIME HIGHS. Does that astound anyone?????????

                              There is some good news in all of the above. My read is that hopefully, those goods whose cost to the user is tied very closely to the cost of petroleum- do deflate. It seems to me that this "deflation" gets loaded into the pockets of a broad base of businesses (or due to competition- gets passed on from the business to consumers), and of course fuel savings adds to the remaining purchasing power of all fuel buying consumers. To a much smaller extent, declines in commodity crop prices should end up saving the food consumer a bit of money at the grocery store. How does spreading cash savings on- fuel- and to a much lesser extent -food- necessarily mean extreme deflation in the overall economy? It seems to me that many that receive these savings in basic expenses can be counted to spread their savings within the economy.

                              The great American market for goods and services relies on purchasing power. Declines in energy costs adds purchasing power for many aggressive consumers.
                              Last edited by jabber1; 01-16-2015, 08:05 AM.
                              “Democracy is the worst form of government, -------------------------------except for all the others.”

                              ― Winston S. Churchill

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                              • #90
                                You state jabber that declining crop prices should add a "bit" of money savings at the grocery store. I know you don't mean "much" savings but I will bet declines in food prices will be barely noticeable. Now fuel prices, if they stay at these lower levels, will be a noticeable savings. But are we going to see declines in the fertilizer prices? I would argue that they are like food.

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