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  • If it means anything I told my dad last week to get all his corn bought for this next year last week. So he has done nothing yet. Lol. I think acres are too high there could be 10% not get planted this late. 167 seems about 5 bushel high. Take a few acres and bushels off and one can make a good argument for $4.50+ corn.

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    • 48, you have to consider, that even usda knows their original numbers took into account early planting and perfect weather throughout corn country. I like your analysis, just saying...

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      • A frost won't slow a lot of corn down around here. The 50 degree soil temperature sure does though!

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        • It's a balmy 35*F here this morning, a little colder than forecast but still above freezing. Like I said, I think all the water standing kept us a few degrees warmer than what could have been.

          iadave is right. This has got to be the slowest growing crop I've ever seen. Some pretty poor stands in the neighborhood also.

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          • I don't like the looks of my emerged beans.....a really long stem with some puny leaves at the top...look like one of those miniature DumDum candies on a stick.....if it were dry and warmer, I'd tear em all up and start over....looks like maybe a field or two would work tomorrow afternoon...oh wait..my bad....just when the 1-1.5" of thunderstorms are supposed to arrive. 46 here.

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            • grains under a lot of pressure.US$ sharply higher again,coupled with good planting progress and emergence,crop ratings better in wheat by 1% when talk of to much rain thought they could be worse. A lot of rain for S plains again this weekend so not sure the crop is safe yet,cool temps will have corn and beans at a standstill,I still think corn ac shrink from USDA mar intentions and trendline more likely which is 162 about 4 bu less than current thoughts.But for now the shortcovering rally appears to have run out of steam

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              • Originally posted by db51 View Post
                I don't like the looks of my emerged beans.....a really long stem with some puny leaves at the top...look like one of those miniature DumDum candies on a stick.....if it were dry and warmer, I'd tear em all up and start over....looks like maybe a field or two would work tomorrow afternoon...oh wait..my bad....just when the 1-1.5" of thunderstorms are supposed to arrive. 46 here.
                I wouldnt touch them beans Dave, giv'em some manganese when they get into there late 2nd-3rd trifoliate, I'm holding my breathe for that frost advisory here tonight, I knew when things look scary good there's always something that comes around to upset the applecart, had a pleasant surprise this morning , prestone in the oil pan on my utility tractor that told me he didn't like it.

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                • I think beans are chemical damaged from Fierce....It's hard not to tear chit up that looks this bad.....weather forecast not boding well for next week or two....looks like maybe some new growth on beans......just look sick...need to quit fricking looking at the sorry basturds.

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                  • Since I only grow gmo beans because of my grass issues if I don't, I never put PPI stuff into the ground unless I have giant ragweed problem like its begun to rear its ugly head around here as of late, did a 3 chemical PPI mixture for that chit, killed some, thousands more came to the funeral.Its like death and taxes, can't get rid of it unless you can paraquat it.

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                    • steffy/db51: On a grazing program...whether spring oats...grass...or wheat...I have told you over and over to NOT own the cattle and transfer all the risk to the owner of the cattle...typically a feed lot that can put the gain on cheaper by grazing and then pull the cattle into their feed lot and catch the seasonal increase.

                      On other scenarios it depends on your situation. If you are cow-calf, you have been in the sweet spot for some time.

                      Recently, the sweetest spot has been growing out replacement heifers.

                      Annnndddd....I have said forever that the price of feeder cattle is far more important than the price of corn. You have to buy the cattle right.

                      You have to understand seasonals and SLIDE.

                      You can not hedge cattle in a hole=futures discounted to cash. But, you can sure speculate.

                      Nevertheless...you can make good money walking corn out on cattle.

                      One thing is for sure. If you padlock the corn in a tin can and think you're going to make it on carry and basis improvement, you are going to lose your azz. Look at all the 2014 corn that is still in farmer owned storage. Ouch!!!!!!!!!!!

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                      • Originally posted by wco2 View Post
                        48, you have to consider, that even usda knows their original numbers took into account early planting and perfect weather throughout corn country. I like your analysis, just saying...
                        wco2: There are about 12 major ag commodity analysts. They go to all the USDA lock ups in an attempt to gain knowledge and insight. They know all the rules and guide lines that USDA uses to come up with their numbers. One of those analysts is Brock. I highly recommend Brock. You can afford them compared to Informa. Anyways, Brock says that USDA is not even following their own rules and guide lines vs yield vs early planting. I highly admire Jerry Gulke, and he regularly dismisses any idea that USDA uses "Scheme and Device". I don't agree. USDA has suckered corn farmers into planting a corn crop that they are going to lose money on. Now, that the corn is in the ground, USDA has until January 12, 2016 to tweek their numbers to reality. And, you have until then to use a good commodity analyst like CIS to speculate and make money on a crop that will otherwise lose money. And, if you think the situation is dire on corn, it's even worse with SB. Good luck.

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                        • 48...you just don't understand the territory..we do not have any access to the type of operations you are referring.....bottom line....there ain't no customers for grazing, raising heifers, or anything else.....there are virtually no livestock operations down in this area.....and certainly none that fit the criteria you are talking about. BTW...I don't own any 2014 corn.....

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                          • There you go....a cattle pot for ECI, and some electric fence, including posts...then teaching cowboyism...

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                            • 101--------------------dave

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                              • DB, didn't you have 2014 30,000 bu.still in storage not too long ago, you went and did a sneak sale on us probably to pay for your bean seed.....lol
                                perhaps the DB's analease capital venture is sucking cash and picking up steam in sales?Just an idea, you should endorse the idea of every insurance adjuster handing out free samples of your product to all there unfortunate clients that will probably need it after this years growing season and price erosion on grains.Off course that cattle guys do not qualify.Don't forget to espouse the organic nature of the product that is home made with non GMO azz itching properties.Can your product reduce strep throat symptoms as well? Might as well go after all ends.......hell, throw in a "spoon full of sugar that makes the medicine go down" theme, now what movie was that on? Mary Poppins????? We can adopt a new handle for you DB Poppins...lol kinda catchy don't ya think?
                                Oh well back to the nut farm, no frost this morning , overcast and with wind, so I guess there's a wind chill close to freezing though... reading of 35 degrees thats close
                                Last edited by Tom In Ont; 05-20-2015, 04:35 AM.

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