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  • To all the Iowa folks- Im looking at maybe moving out that way....any advise on where to set up shop? I'd prefer a few ac. with a house and barn..for my boys and wife. I'd rather just work for a dairy/grain operation at first. And ideas would be helpful

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    • FF....rather than come in here throwing insults at other posters, perhaps you can enlighten us with other areas of your expertise such as Global Warming.

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      • Have just the deal for you... Clarke co, Iowa ...Amish farmer selling out his 60 acre slice of Iowa heaven. Two connected homes. Auction on the 28th of this month.

        www.wagner-dentauctions.com

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        • db...My day started in a dairy barn with the temp being 0 this morning....You wont hear me talk about global warming. Other than its a scare tactic to tax people more... and people without a brain buy into it. But thanks for your kindness toward me

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          • Originally posted by Freedom farmer View Post
            H. Bell, try to keep it real, otherwise you may start to see pink swans.
            Originally posted by H. Bell View Post
            It will be the black swan that none of us see coming this time around that will change everything. I think this thing of negative interest rates is somerthuig even the Feds are having trouble getting a handle on. What if the government called all the money in and gave us new different money, one dollar for your old two. How would that affect loans, retail prices? It's just a piece of paper. Who decides what it can really do or buy? They can do anything they want with it.
            Interesting H.Bell about the money thing! This has happened before when the government called in all of the gold during the Great Depression and in effect this devalued the currancy. It would not take too much for the government to switch out current currancy at a 2:1 ratio or more! Think what that would do to any one who has been holding cash. Seems the shadow news sites seem to be focusing on this angle more and more lately.

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            • Some of you guys are a hoot. The US going to the trouble of changing one currency into another with a two to one switch. Hey, why not enjoy your fantasies to the utmost! Instead of worthless paper money, how about pretty solid copper coins? Why not skip the currency altogether and take a couple of nice dead chickens to your next doctor visit as payment.

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              • I wouldn't spend too much time debating changing the currency as it is only a "medium of exchange." It has only the value that common acceptance puts on it. In other words we determine what our currency is worth. There's not really a lot of it out there anyway. About $800 face value for every citizen of this country and a lot of that is being held overseas. If you don't believe it, just walk into your bank with a check for $10,000 payable to cash and see what happens.

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                • A lot of interesting thoughts out there. This is why I will settle on land as the best of all investments. I can't eat gold and currency is just paper. I don't want stocks and bonds and all that bs. Two dead chickens might be just what the doctor ordered come to think about it. Frootloops certainly has a way of explaining the topic at hand. lmao What a toadstool. Your time would be better spent warming up your pos prius.

                  I'm not sure the final outcome of all this uncertainty, and I'm certain no one else does either, but I think SIllinoisfarmer has it figured pretty good. In our area land seldom comes available. I recently bought some ground that joins me that I have been farming for 20 years. It has excellent location and I don't have to prance around on the roads to get to it. It will be a challenge no doubt, but what's new.


                  If land values recede 50% then we lose our inflated wealth we have been gifted to over the last 10 years, SO WHAT!! If you've been one to borrow, beg or steal your inflated wealth away , then I guess you might lose your rubber ducky. A strong cash flow will enable one to cruise through the tough years but if banks close and money changes WTF then. It seems everyone is talking out their azz. Strong, weak, poor, rich, big, little, short, tall, fat, skinny, you name it, even people like friggin frootloops, will all have a tough go at it.

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                  • Originally posted by SIllinoisfarmer View Post
                    It would seem gentlemen that we are all looking at the same coin: some just see the heads side and others see the reverse side! As has been stated it all depends on what price levels do and for how long. Buuuuuttttttt (copyright Jabber) I believe not all things are as they appear on the surface. I have a little bit of insight from my off farm job, and it may be a here thing, but you can not judge a book by its cover. I know there is survey after survey that farmers are flush with cash and they bought everything with cash. I call bull hockey on that Cunard. Prior to 2007 net farm income was very low and many folks had borrowed money for new barns, bins, machinery, land from the post 1980 period. When the good times came many updated aging facilities and equipment and hopefully pay off land. As land values increased their leveraging ratios started to look pretty good and most thought we had reached the new price plateau. When land came up for sale they bought it after wanting it for so long. Now lets create a scenario that a farm family has managed to save one million dollars and buys the 50 acres at $10,000 per acre so they pull $500,000 out of their savings. They have now cut their net savings in half and as long as land stays at the $10,000 per acre figure it is all good. However, it is a rare family that would not make improvements on the ground or update machinery, or find other ways to spend some of their discretionary income. Now if land values start to drop, machinery values drop, and net income per acres drops you have a family that has a balance sheet that looks markedly different than it did in the recent past. Keep in mind there are few farm families that have a net savings of cash in the bank equal to one million, and many folks bought a great deal more than 50 acres. When I drive around my area, lots of new bins, sheds, machinery, fence rows removed, terraces, tiling and other long term improvements have been made recently. These things all cost money and not everything was paid for by cash. Are there exceptions, of course, but have you ever read that John Deere finance, Farm Credit Services, local ag lenders, were closing because too many farmers were buying with cash and they were no longer needed? Didn't think so.
                    You're are right on with your scenario on $1M and a 50 acre land purchase. They had the money so the farm is not put at risk by the purchase and any further expenditures for needed, reasonable improvements is good business practice. Hopefully there is still some cash reserve to provide security to the operation.

                    Buuuuutttttt. (Copyright Jabber) I like that one!

                    The large investors will keep land prices pretty stable. They acquire land for various reasons and production and grain price may play a role in it's value, but it may not be the major determining factor. These buyers of the larger tracts don't seem to be influenced to any great degree by grain prices. I was told by one of these buyers, "I don't go to land auctions, I buy farms." I think this shows the mindset of those with the wherewithal to do as they wish. I just happen to think that this financial strength is more common than would first appear.

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                    • Originally posted by 4450 View Post
                      A few thoughts. 48, you stated alfalfa is the most drought tolerant crop there is. Well it might be from the survival standpoint, but mine here on the hill doesn't produce if it doesn't rain. Got 1 and a 1/2 cuttings total last year.

                      db said the big operators have the bank by the nuggets. We had an old auctioneer who used to urge guys to buy at the farm sales in the 70;s and 80's by saying if you get in debt far enough, the bank can't sell you out. Well my bank at least learned a hard lesson during that time too, and I don't think they let guys get in that far anymore.

                      As for cattle. I know several guys that buy calves and background. These guys are sweating it. Glad I've got cows. If the price tanks, I won't make as much, but at least I don't have a cattle note to pay off.
                      4450: Why would you plant alfalfa UP on a hill??? Most alfalfa is planted irrigated or DOWN on bottomland...OR...at least on flat ground. NO crop is going to do good UP on a hill. Nevertheless, alfalfa is the most drought tolerant crop there is fb SB fb milo...EXCEPT...milo is NOT drought tolerant when it enters the reproductive stage. Before that it will shut down and wait for a rain. We used to joke that if we could put bindweed roots on wheat, we would have it made. Alfalfa comes close.

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                      • We had a really good farmer here go into the alfalfa business about 8 years ago. They know what they're doing too. They don't raise any hay now. Every time it was ready or just after cut we'd get flooding rains. Alfalfa and clover are big gamble.

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                        • Originally posted by IN555 View Post
                          I did not come on here to drum up business, considering I have no interest in working long distance. I came on here for stimulating conversations. It is nearly impossible to predict acres until mid june. History shows it depends on the weather. If planters roll early with little issues corn acres will be higher then expected/beans lower. If a lot of planters don't roll until may 1 like last year corn acres will be lower. I personally feel intentions are around 87.5 corn and 85.5 beans. Tell me what the weather will be and I will adjust from there. Also you have NO idea what my sales are and will be so don't try to predict my profitability. I will make money this year, I can guarantee you that.
                          555: You are prevaricating. If I archived posts like db51 does, I would prove it to you. If you FC/HTA more than 50% of your crop before it was even planted, you are playing with fire. When you say that you can guarantee that you will make money...weeellll...most of us farm in areas that are subject to flooding, drought, hail, early frosts, and on and on. I will start laying my prayer mat out toward IN. That will catch both you and ECI.

                          In last year's USDA Outlook Forum they forecast SB=79.5ma. The actual was 83.7ma...+4.2ma HIGHER. 83.7/79.5=1.0528. If this year is similar, 83.5 x 1.0528=87.9ma. This is very close to what most commodity analysts are forecasting. Brock=87ma.

                          CIS is predicting SX5=9.00. DTN's national basis=-.44. 9.00-.44=8.56. Brock is forecasting 7.50-9.00. USDA is forecasting 9.00.

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                          • hobby farmer: You said: "Getting into cattle right now looks to me to be an express ride to the poor house."

                            I have consistently told readers to do stocker steers on a gain basis with a minimum cash rent and transfer ALL the risk to the owner of the cattle. Sooo...how are they going to take an express ride to the poor house? Of course, if they did some thing prudent like that, some prick like you would tell them that: "They are all hat and no cattle."

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                            • Originally posted by db51 View Post
                              We had a really good farmer here go into the alfalfa business about 8 years ago. They know what they're doing too. They don't raise any hay now. Every time it was ready or just after cut we'd get flooding rains. Alfalfa and clover are big gamble.

                              BINGO !!!!
                              I would say there is a big difference in yield around here between the dry years and even normal years . I guess in dry areas you stand a lot better chance of making good hay but up here its a crap shoot . Haylage is the ONLY way to go here since its a narrow window to put up real quality alfalfa .
                              Also there is NO guaranteed market or payment for hay . I , and a lot of others around me this year still have a lot of good hay we can't get rid of and I still got 2 who owe me from 2 years back . I'll never see that money .

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                              • hobby farmer: BTW...I thought our deal was that you post on Successful Farming's agriculture.com and that I would post on AW. Looks like it's time to see if Mizzou Tiger is still flaming you out.

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