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Marketing 2015

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  • #16
    Well, just a personal observation, but something is pretty fishy in the land of BIG CORN PILES! I started delivering soybeans last Friday, and resumed again today. 6 Loads, at varying times of the day....and I pulled directly onto the scale, pulled straight to the dump, never more than 3 trucks in either dump line. Something is seriously amiss here .... as this is usually when the huge delivery of January is taking place.


    • #17
      My Take on the (Rigged) Markets

      Paper, paper, paper - everybody's in love with paper! If farmers acted like bankers and the Fed, everyone could come home from the grocery store with a week's worth of groceries in a three-ring binder. Someday, this charade, this malfeasance is going to end...BADLY and I take absolutely no joy in saying that....


      • #18
        "I'm gonna jump out the window now" LMAO that's pretty good.

        Here's something your not gonna really like

        Ethanol,, Its just good ole Moonshine.
        Down a dime today, 5% +
        .04ish tonight,only on one contract traded though so don't get too excited.
        I've posted a few times in the last month the E futures traders are living in La La Land. Well looks like they really WOKE UP today (volume wise to) with a hard day down,record volume for ZEG Z = E-trade, E = ethanol and G being February. This puts the E/RBOB at E being .10 premium to RBOB. 2 days ago it was .20 normal is .40-.50

        December of 2008 E traded to a low of 1.37, many lows in 2009/10 ZE @1.45ish
        Same time RBOB went to .79
        .58 UNDER RBOB (normalish) with the old .54 blenders tax credit which was then lower few year back to .45 then totally done away with Dec. 31 2012 We had a import tariff I wanna say .51 ? This tariff was taken of Dec. 31st also. Not sure on these dates ? ? ? This is why we had a fair amount of E being imported in 2013.

        E margins are not doing well,still green, IMO red will be soon, unless corn price drops.
        Bullish report on Monday,E-insider well not be happy.
        Yeah we have had a great E-grind so far,,, I do not expect this to continue as E stock will raise (3% last week)

        Crude I thought would/could/maybe make a bounce from 50ish, nothing yet. I sure can not find any signs that this is the bottom. If anything net new selling are placing there bets in crude,selling crude,the trend is your friend and its very clearly down.

        Now kinda thinking I should pour E-insider a strong Crown/Coke or maybe just give him the bottle when I brought up 2008-09-10

        Ethanol uses 5 BB of our corn guys,it is quite important. If the grind drops, exports will really need to pick up the pace*****
        Not Monday's but in up coming reports the E grind number will be VERY important.


        • #19
          Want a Glimpse of the Future? Might Want to Ponder this.

          They See It Coming…Ready or Not?
          Author : Bill Holter
          Published: January 6th, 2015

          2014 was a year of posturing. The U.S. “postured” by trying to lure Mr. Putin and Russia into a war. First it was over Syria and then later over Ukraine. The Russians postured by not taking the bait and buying time. Yes, Russia has suffered with a devaluing currency, lower oil revenues, and an economy running on less than eight cylinders. China has stayed out of the public spotlight during this period but privately stood behind Russia, I will explain this a bit later.

          I mentioned “buying time”, by necessity, Russia has done this as a tactic I believe to slow down the implosion of the Western financial system. On the face of it, I know this sounds ridiculous …why would Russia want to prolong the Western system. The answer is very simple, they, nor China were ready. They may not even be fully “ready” now but at least the financial infrastructure is in place for when it does happen.

          Over the past year and as a result of sanctions by the U.S., Russia set up their own alternative to the SWIFT clearing system. This was being tested for the last two weeks. The original start date was May 15, 2015, this seems to have been advanced by months as the system may go live without any notice or if Russia were to be isolated from the SWIFT system. The important things I see from this are basically threefold. First, the U.S. has not had enough political capital to kick Russia out as several European nations refused to go this route (it’s cold and they need Russia’s nat gas). Secondly and maybe more importantly, SWIFT can no longer be held as a potential hammer over the head of Russia since they have an alternative. Lastly, the alternative clearing system will at a minimum bleed liquidity and thus more velocity out of the West. In a worse case scenario, the new clearing system may become very attractive and lure a majority or even a super majority of trade participants to abandon the West’s game. Were this to result, the dollar will lose its usefulness and thus its de facto reserve currency status.

          We also heard of another announcement over the holidays between Russia and China. They performed “currency forwards and swaps“.

          This was done I believe to support Russia and her ruble more than any other reason. You will notice the ruble immediately strengthened nearly 40% on this announcement. The sanctions along with “Mr. Obama” cutting the price of oil in half will not cause Russia to default as they have nearly as much cash foreign reserves as they do debt outstanding. This is very important, Russia has a pristine balance sheet where their debt is only 14% of GDP, compared to the West’s understated debt amounts equaling 100% or more of GDP.

          I want to mention the recent explosive move higher in the dollar. It has rallied nearly 15% in six months, and nearly 10% of this in just the last two month. This I believe is the result of the dollar carry trade unwinding. Many commodities including oil were “carried” by borrowing dollars. This was a synthetic short position in the dollar. As the commodities (oil) imploded in price, traders were forced by margin calls to exit positions. The borrowed (shorted) dollars were paid back (covered) and has caused the rally in the dollar.

          On Friday, the first trading day of the year, “something broke…somewhere”. For the dollar to move nearly a full one percent higher in a single day is not only a symptom but also a financial killer. The IMF claims there is a $9 trillion carry trade in the dollar. Just one percent of this amount, the carry trade (not to mention dollar based derivatives in the $100′s of trillions), amounts to $90 billion! Let me put this in perspective for you. On Friday alone, “someone made” $90 billion and “someone” also lost $90 billion. This means there will be huge margin calls for Monday morning.

          For a little more perspective as long as we are speaking of mas o menos $100 billion, the Treasury went another $100 billion in debt on Dec. 31st.. This number of $100 billion also fits nicely into the gold market, this happens to be just about the amount of gold which is produced from ALL of the worlds mines in a FULL YEAR! Do you see the comparison here? The Treasury borrowed in just one day, an amount equal to annual global gold production …at current prices. We should also be seeing margin movement of about this much on Monday because of the FOREX price action on Friday.

          Lastly, it needs to be pointed out that gold was the number two “currency” on the planet last year as it dropped just over 1% versus the dollar. This means what exactly? It means gold rallied just about as hard in foreign currency terms as the dollar did! Oh, and let’s not forget about the multi thousand ton “paper anvil” the COMEX has thrown around the neck of gold. Even with “instantly and freely” created paper supply of gold, the price has held over the last year to trade at near parity with the dollar. Now that volatility has and is exploding in nearly all asset classes, we may soon see why the CME has instituted “collars” on the precious metals.

          Volatility in today’s world is a systemic killer, let me explain this before finishing. Looking at volatility moves in the dollar, oil and many stock and bond markets leads me to believe there are huge margin calls and unfunded positions behind the scenes. Some very strange events have taken place, a perfect example would be 10 yr. Spanish bonds issued by an obvious bankrupt trading under 1.5%. The dollar move on FOREX these past weeks tells me one of two things, either something blew up …or the move itself blew someone up. The action we have witnessed is not normal and certainly not sustainable because of the derivative losses created. When you add the puzzle piece of what Russia and China are doing together, it tells me they are “readying” for the derivative daisy chain to break. China is preparing the yuan to ascend to reserve currency status while Russia is preparing the clearing infrastructure mechanism. As for the West, “bail ins” have been legislated into law over the last year for a reason. They know “it” is coming. The latest act of Congress which saddles FDIC with broken banks busted by derivatives should also tell you something …they know it’s coming! Laugh this off if you like, whether the West is ready or not, the East has been preparing and will be.

          Regards, Bill Holter


          • #20
            Fertilizer prices here rising daily, seed prices firm to higher. N on a tear to the upside, cash price here $ 3.48 for corn. I'm going all in on beans. Have never planted beans two year in a row, but it's gonna happen this year. Alot of pushback from growers on seed and fertilizer salesmen around here. There is an eerie feeling in the air of uncertainty......a calm before the storm.


            • #21
              Just add $1 to corn, $7 to beans, $4 to wheat

              and there's your cash rally.

              that br weather is not much...they might grow 1/2 a crop..maybe 3/4.


              • #22
                Now that's some Unicorn Skittles kinda stuff we all can believe in. lmao.


                • #23
                  I like it let it roll----------------dave


                  • #24
                    Hummmmmmmmmmm!!!!!! $17 beanies????????? what you smoking there Mark??????????


                    • #25
                      Wrong way is drinking to much bullish koolaid,looks like we have a new perma bull leader.


                      • #26
                        db51, that "eerie feeling" is likely just a bit of breeze blowing between your ears. In time you'll like get used to it. Thanks for the Bill Holter piece. He's a real hoot. Seriously, I wish Europe was not in such a financial mess. There is a chance that could turn ugly.


                        • #27
                          Sparky Marky AKA, Mark Wrong, WAS NAT's wild bull.
                          Some of his comments include,
                          $450 fat cattle.
                          $1200 meal this past fall.
                          10-12 corn.
                          25-30 beans.
                          Bought up 2008 and wheat many times is the last 2.5 years. I sold some MWE this spring @ 8.10 right after his post on "2008 and wheat" THANKS Mark i did hit the high.

                          IDK what he's smoken,,, it must be really good high end stuff Ha Ha


                          • #28
                            you have to think Positive--------------------------dave


                            • #29
                              FreedomBoy No chance of you ever feeling a breeze between your ears f(uckwad....since it is usually placed firmly up your ***


                              • #30
                                I've always enjoyed Marks posts. He sure rattles the bear cage.