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Marketing 2015

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  • pre end of year selling? Here that is easy. Lots of guys who didn't sell enough to cover expenses + good basis+ good weather = selling!


    • It looks like changes are a comin.


      • Good one SD....I do remember much of the area in western Ks before irrigation was developed...hiway 24 in particular...when there were miles of short
        grass pastures and summer fallowed wheat...then driving back at night from Denver without air conditioning and the sound of irrigation engines screaming
        exhausts that jolted you to a new awareness until the next one ... then flying over the area and seeing those beautiful green circles below... and for so long,
        NO one seemed concerned until reality hit when some of the wells started sucking air...

        Today, MAYBE some will be able to do the math and figure a way around it, but the damage has already been done. We can't put back in what took
        centuries to build and only decades to diminish.

        The wild west shoot outs over ground water for livestock will be dull in comparison to the battles for water in these areas or regions in the coming future.


        • Originally posted by db51 View Post
          Let me help you out here Tom . . To summarize in two words. We're Screwed.
          Dave, read an article about how the" TOO BIG TO FAIL" banks in NY are fvking the small banks across America once again with there covering of bond derivatives that they heavily borrowed on from the FED at 0% interest and now have to cover siphoning liquidity from the small banks that aren't even involved. Explains why they don't have the collateral to lend to farmers. Shades of 2008 all over again and perhaps even worse. I read another article saying its 30x worse, that's unimaginable!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!That Dodd Frank bill coming into affect. This should topple the stocks markets once again....
          The FED fraudsters have fvked us all again with there crooked machinations of manipulations.Just look at how the CRB index has absolutely imploded because of there QE interference.
          Last edited by Tom In Ont; 12-16-2015, 08:25 AM.


          • Holy Crap Tom, did all the advisors of manipulations read your post this morning? MARKETS= ®db51 " We're Screwed" !

            this just in:

            Interest rates going up for first time in 7 years

            December 16, 2015 by Hays Post —0 Comments

            Screen Shot 2015-12-16 at 1.08.05 PMWASHINGTON (AP) — The latest on the Federal Reserve’s landmark two-day policy meeting that ended Wednesday. The central bank raised interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade. All times local.


            2:00 p.m.

            The Fed just lifted rates, ending seven years of an extraordinary measure to combat the damage from the 2008 financial crisis.

            Fed officials voted unanimously to raise the key federal funds rate — the interest banks charge each other overnight — to a range of 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent, up from near-zero for the first time since December 2008.

            Fed officials made the move in response to seemingly robust 5 percent unemployment. But in addition to maximizing employment, the Fed is responsible for maintaining stable prices. Inflation remains below the Fed’s 2 percent target. The statement by the central bank acknowledged the drag from declines in energy prices and decline in inflation expectations, even though it still expects to reach its target “over the medium term.”

            The result is that any future rate hikes will be “gradual” and depend on further progress toward the inflation goal.
            Last edited by dennis1; 12-16-2015, 01:40 PM.


            • I found this article that very alarming and explains why I went to the bank the other day and they told me that anything over 2500.00 cash , you must give 4 days notice, I said a big WTF??????
              I'm pulling money out and I know I'm being watched, I also found out that my piddly bank only holds 37,000.00 physically at any given time and this very article explains why.

              one of the biggest problems for the Central Banks is actual physical cash.

              The financial system is predominantly comprised of digital money. Actual physical Dollars bills and coins only amount to $1.36 trillion. This is only a little over 10% of the $10 trillion sitting in bank accounts. And it’s a tiny fraction of the $20 trillion in stocks, $38 trillion in bonds and $58 trillion in credit instruments floating around the system.

              Suffice to say, if a significant percentage of people ever actually moved their money into physical cash, it could very quickly become a systemic problem.

              Indeed, this is precisely what caused the 2008 meltdown, when nearly 24% of the assets in Money Market funds were liquidated in the course of four weeks. The ensuing liquidity crush nearly imploded the system.

              Because of this, Central Banks and the regulators have declared a War on Cash in an effort to stop people trying to get their money out of the system.

              One policy they are considering is to put a carry tax on physical cash meaning that your Dollar bills would gradually depreciate once they were taken out of the bank. Another idea is to do away with actual physical cash completely.

              Perhaps the most concerning is the fact that should a “systemically important” financial entity go bust, any deposits above $250,000 located therein could be converted to equity… at which point if the company’s shares, your wealth evaporates.

              Indeed, the FDIC published a paper proposing precisely this back in December 2012. Below are some excerpts worth your attention.

              This paper focuses on the application of “top-down” resolution strategies that involve a single resolution authority applying its powers to the top of a financial group, that is, at the parent company level. The paper discusses how such a top-down strategy could be implemented for a U.S. or a U.K. financial group in a cross-border context…

              These strategies have been designed to enable large and complex cross- border firms to be resolved without threatening financial stability and without putting public funds at risk…

              An efficient path for returning the sound operations of the G-SIFI to the private sector would be provided by exchanging or converting a sufficient amount of the unsecured debt from the original creditors of the failed company into equity. In the U.S., the new equity would become capital in one or more newly formed operating entities.

              …Insured depositors themselves would remain unaffected. Uninsured deposits would be treated in line with other similarly ranked liabilities in the resolution process, with the expectation that they might be written down.


              In other words… any liability at the bank is in danger of being written-down should the bank fail. And guess what? Deposits are considered liabilities according to US Banking Law. In this legal framework, depositors are creditors.

              So… if a large bank fails in the US, your deposits at this bank would either be “written-down” (read: disappear) or converted into equity or stock shares in the company. And once they are converted to equity you are a shareholder not a depositor… so you are no longer insured by the FDIC.

              So if the bank then fails (meaning its shares fall)… so does your deposit.

              Let’s run through this.

              Let’s say ABC bank fails in the US. ABC bank is too big for the FDIC to make hold. So…

              1) The FDIC takes over the bank.

              2) The bank’s managers are forced out.

              3) The bank’s debts and liabilities are converted into equity or the bank’s stock. And yes, your deposits are considered a “liability” for the bank.

              4) Whatever happens to the bank’s stock, affects your wealth. If the bank’s stock falls at this point because everyone has figured out the bank is in major trouble… your wealth falls too.

              This is precisely what has happened in Spain during the 2012 banking crisis over there. Since then it’s also happened in Cyprus, Greece…and it is now perfectly legal in the US courtesy of a clause in the Dodd-Frank bill.

              This is just the start of a much larger strategy of declaring War on Cash. The goal is to stop people from being able to move their money into physical cash and to keep their wealth in the financial system at all cost.

              This is just the start of a much larger strategy of declaring War on Cash. The goal is to stop people from being able to move their money into physical cash and to keep their wealth in the financial system at all costs.



              • looks like we need to hold on to physical assets. not sure if that makes us any money as deflation looks alive and well.I can't see grains rallying at all.the Argies just devalued their currency 30%,got rid of export quotas on corn and wheat.alot of argie grain is going to be hitting the market soon.their corn and wheat plantings will increase,bean acrs should go down,but they've been holding beans for years so they may not need to plant as much.US$ is sharply higher in reaction to feds raising int rates.and cheap energies is not bullish grains.lo energy prices are good for consumers more cash to spend,but alot of countries who depend on oil revenues are in big trouble and as they start to default it will affect US economy.I got a bad feeling about this.


                • my gut tells me that the FED is raising rates(not a good time when you have benign inflation and falling oil prices) just so they will have a bullet or two when the next collapse happens, been thinking about booking 2016 wheat, futures only, got a basis that gives me 6.10 cent wheat not too bad. Bean basis is 3.17 + over Chicago guess it sucks to be an American farmer now with a stronger dollar by the day it seems....


                  • oh boy, Obama was just on the tube saying no credible terrorist threat here at home, last time he said this a week later we had San Bernadino. He must be on his way to Honolulu .......


                    • Looks like the Government just did away with the benefit of FDIC insurance!


                      • I talked with a friend who is a banker in Greenville NC. He told me they absolutely get raped with that FDIC charade when the big boys get there nutz in a sling and the big banks suck up that liquidity that the small ones have to put up and get penalized for keeping there house in order..He gets very pizzed when he talks about this.


                        • And we gave another full year with is genius and his faithful followers an appointees. If we're not over run by terrorists, our money will probably be taken or paid out to immigrants.


                          • The talking heads were on CNBC today telling us all is well, and the junk bond market was fine, worst is over. Overall debt is higher than ever, but it's no problem! Hope nobody has their money in 3rd Ave. Bond fund.


                            • looks like weather in Brazil is getting worse.40% of the beans are rated poor to very poor.some rain is forcasted for the dry areas but it looks to be to little to late,the long range puts heat and dry back in.the southern areas are to alittle surprised beans are'nt higher than they are.Arg. devaluing currency puts more supply on the market but beans should still move higher.crop est for brazill are now 95-97 mmt down from 102 just weeks ago,if conditions don't improve the crop could drop to early to tell if it will affect 2'nd crop corn.


                              • One thing to remember, steffy, is that a lot of those "too dry" areas have quite a fair amount of later planted beans. So, too little, too late only applies to a portion. Overall though, yes, it does put a bit of excitement into the bean market, finally.