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  • I see in the new Farm Journal, that the boss at Informa is fairly bullish. "If we are going to accomplish this global role of feeding the world on a profitable basis, I think we need more basic infrastructure..." "The US economy , fundamentally, is incredibly sound--more sound than we have ever been in the past 10, 15, 20 years..."

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    • export insp were bullish corn and beans,beans were still hugh @almost 1.7mmt,(62.4mb),corn @661,675 mt,not a great # but still above usda projection,wheat was poor again,grais tried to ralley after starting lower,corn was about 8 up,beans a dime at one pt,but now are now about unchanged,wht continues it's tailspin down 8,wheat looks aweful cheap to me going into the growing season,with the price of cattle makes one wonder how much wheat will be hayed or grazed out.looks like it would be more profitable raising beef on it than running a combine thru it.

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      • grains are putting in a steller performance on heavy volume,not much in the news to warrant this kind of rally,looks like new buying by funds as we start a new month,wheat was also very over sold and funds were adding shorts as open interest was rising on the break,so add in some new buying plus stop loss stops by shorts and you have an impressive rally.I bot some corn and wheat late yesterday,did'nt feel all that good about it ,but feel better today,was'nt very greedy took about 15 cents out of the wheat,a dime in the corn.
        Technically grains look like there trying to bottom,it's how they follow thru that will be important,corn and beans could easily take out last weeks highs and close higher,that would be very bullish,wheat has taken out last weeks low and is higher on the week but would rally another 20+ cents to tke out last weeks highs.
        Remember feb sets crop ins prices,so it may be a tas dangle the carrot rally.

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        • OK, folks, help me out here. Years ago we would have a "February break." However, over the last few years when Fed crop insurance has become so important, it seems like we usually have a January break, followed by strength in February. Has that generally been the case? If so, then specs are likely to jump in right now, and I assume they are. Should we assume some more up in February and hold off til mid-month to make a sale or 2?

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          • more going on today than just crop ins,US $ is sharply lower down over a full pt.Crude is up another $2.50,.weakness in grains was due to outside market influences,they look to be turning,add in funds leaning the wrong way and you have a good rally,technicians will be paying attn. to this rally.But to your Question feb does seem to have a tendency to rally in feb esp after a week jan performance,probably a carrot to buy acres just make sure you have orders above the market to take advantage of it.

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            • Originally posted by Freedom farmer View Post
              The best cure for high prices is high prices. Anyone not understanding that is asking for trouble.
              FF: Where do you get "best"??? Annndd....when we ran chronic shortages of SB's for years, that little ditty didn't mean jack.

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              • Originally posted by Freedom farmer View Post
                OK, folks, help me out here. Years ago we would have a "February break." However, over the last few years when Fed crop insurance has become so important, it seems like we usually have a January break, followed by strength in February. Has that generally been the case? If so, then specs are likely to jump in right now, and I assume they are. Should we assume some more up in February and hold off til mid-month to make a sale or 2?
                FF: If you have been charting the Big Specs' positions in C+SB each week...which I have exhorted everyone to do for years...you wouldn't have to ask that question. Annnndddd...just cuz I tell you to watch what the Big Specs are doing....that doesn't mean that you shouldn't watch what the Big Commercials are doing. If you don't do your own charting...which you should...you could subscribe to the Brock Report which shows BOTH graphically each week. That would answer the question for you instead of making invalid assertions..

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                • 48,whats your thoughts on the cattle,bot a few today when they were lower.

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                  • 48 YOUR BACK !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
                    Here I thought you saw your "Shadow" yesterday and were gonna have 6 weeks on the pxssed list.

                    I worked this up for cattle guy this morning for a gentlemen in NAT.
                    Been paying attention to cattle,cause 48 TOLD ME TO !!!!!
                    Respect your "elders" is what I was taught.

                    You do put me on the spot Blacky,,, I do like a challenge tho ) and little short on time, I work better under pressure.
                    To see where we're going, we gotta look back where we've been.
                    This is a long term monthly GFH
                    The star points out what I'm gonna call the crazy money driven market from 180-245 driven,driven by 2 things,
                    # 1 Spec money piling into the trend. This was MUCH more on the fats side of things
                    # 2 The farmer/feeders that just had to buy feeders to "walk some corn to town"

                    Cash feeders have dropping like a rock, there was some comments about futures "HAD TO" come up to meet the cash index. This did not happen,cash crashed to met the paper. The market does not HAVE TO do anything*****

                    Here's my guess GF trade side-way to lower in 180 to 200 range til mid summer. $200 once broke (working on this right now) well be tough to hold gains above this level. Holding this level would be bullish short term. I tossed Pitt's 160 in there, 160-180 would be more July to years ends. 130 - 160 a more normalish range from there on out this range could be traded by last year also.

                    Somethings you have to remember looking forward.
                    Imports/exports*****this came to haunt corn growers in 12/13 This is more of a big deal NOW with this strong dollar.
                    Slaughter weights this WILL haunt the cattle,,, it IS haunting hogs right now as are exports of.
                    Feed lots gotta get this weights down***** But that's like getting corn acres down.
                    WORLD WIDE PRODUCTION of beef (MUCH more so with the strong dollar)
                    Look at our corn/beans/wheat prices today,more so wheat if you think this will not effect cattle prices you had better go meet MarkWright and start smoking the good stuff.

                    I am on record as the gap in GFH @ 288 will stand for 10 years. Chip Flory of ProFarmer is on record and he just repeated this late last week of cattle unto new highs in 2015.

                    I'm here helping/representing the American Producers*****
                    Chip,,,seems more geared towards ratings.
                    I've listened to his show many times in the last couple of months.
                    He does like to keep "the slant" bullish,,, re-read the rating parts.....
                    You decide who to place a case of beer bet with.

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                    • steffy/Tas: DOWN. I wouldn't be surprised to see LC go back to the 130 area where they launched from, but they have good support at 150 and 145. The Big Specs pushed them up to 173, and now the Big Specs are liquidating. LC had a perfect storm with tight supplies and PED in hogs. Hogs have 3 generations of natural resistance to PED now and 3 vaccines. PED always diminishes as it warms up. And, the hog herd is expanding. Ditto poultry. Beef has to compete. The thing to watch is beef in cold storage which is burdensome. The strong dollar is not good for exports...albeit didn't seem to be much of a factor in 2014. The other thing to watch is packers' margins from Hedgers Edge.com...which you can get from Brock. The Black Swan on Feeder Cattle is that there is a huge number on wheat pasture in all of OK and the TX Panhandle. Historically, over 10 yrs the cheapest price for FC is May 23. With cheap corn feedlots are not current, and it is only going to get worse. We had a Bear Flag in both LC and FC, but that objective has kind of been met. Now, both are consolidating into a horizontal trading range. BUT, we also have two legs down. If they take off, watch for a 32%-62% retrace to the start of the third leg down. What's it going to do? I don't have a clue. Just watch. It will tell you what it's going to do. Here's the problem. You can't hedge in a hole. But, you can spec. Make sure you subscribe to CIS and CattleFax. And...I'm not back. Freedom Fluke kind of got to me.
                      Last edited by 48; 02-03-2015, 08:14 PM.

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                      • Atta boy 48!!! Good post!

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                        • Originally posted by dairyfarmmn View Post
                          Atta boy 48!!! Good post!
                          DF: fu and the Stein you rode in on.

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                          • Originally posted by 48 View Post
                            DF: fu and the Stein you rode in on.
                            NOW what did I do????? It was a good post. I agreed with what you posted.









                            Okay, the atta boy part was kind of azzholeish, but I am A-hole #3 still aren't I?

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                            • DF: Jhf

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                              • It was a good post,...... now if 48 can only beat some sense into markwright, or is it mark wrong, or markuberbull, or he11 whatever the nut goes by.

                                He is the posterboy for "you never go full retard"

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