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  • Originally posted by steffy View Post
    SD,last years bean crop looks like it was over estimated,demand has been better both from domestic sources and export,crush margins still very good,so oc stocks should come down,nc stocks could be tight also as acres and yield gets reduced,we're getting dry,how about you.
    Getting dry here. A few small spots of corn on sand are toasted. Everything else looks good, but it's time for a rain.

    Btw, did you fish the Governors Cup?

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    • Shallow roots will become an issue if it dries out in the wet areas. Our ground is plenty wet today but there is nothing in the 7 day forecast. This has potential to be very negative for Ohio and Indiana yields. Can't speak for points further west. Well drained fields on high ground and over gravel subsoils look terrific around here. Everything else shows fatigue from all the rain.

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      • yes fished with my son,finished 30 out of 130 teams,missed to many fish on sat,should have been in the top 10

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        • So the USDA left the corn crop ratings at 69 pct good/ex vs 76 ly. Crops improved in IA, MN and OH but dropped in MO, IN and IL, I also noticed SD showed a decline. They left ratings the same for soybeans but said the crop improved in AR, TN, MN and NE and dropped in MO, IN, OH and IA. I personally feel the declines are greater than the gains due to geography but what do I know. I also think final planted acres for both crops will be lower than many people are expecting. The trade didn't get the 2% gain in condition rating they were hoping for. You don't hear a lot of chatter about it though.

          I see the corn market has pulled back just like soybeans, probably further than it needed to. This should be a buying opportunity if you're a gambler. It should also give end users another chance to get their needs covered before the next leg up...they sure are lucky.

          This market should have plenty of energy to go up again now as planted acres get smaller and this crop continues to deteriorate.
          Last edited by 82; 07-21-2015, 08:57 PM.

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          • gold down hard again,as is oil,chinese selling dominating markets,defationary tone,asia could be heading for a recession if it isn't already,has the potential to have grains lower than fundamentals dictate.Black swan?crop tour in Canada shows poor crops,pnw burning up,europe also hot and dry,ukrain starting to dry out, asia and aussies will be impacted by strengthening el nino,so global stocks are getting smaller,cycle lows due in metals this week and with hugh volume on this washout sellers could be about done liquidating.

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            • AW has an interesting Bloomberg article posted. "China Buys Most Corn in at Least 10 Years Before U.S. Price Jump".

              "China’s corn imports more than doubled in June, reaching the highest in at least a decade, as purchases climbed before a late-month surge in U.S. prices".

              I realize not all this corn came from the U.S. The U.S. marketplace sets the global price.

              Could it be China has a better handle on global supply than the USDA? Maybe they see a not so distant global supply problem due to this strengthening El Nino. Maybe they realize last years corn supply was over guessed and were smart enough to get their needs covered and get control of the physical corn before stocks become not burdensome worldwide and global prices go up.

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              • 82, I read this morning that AUS. is liquidating its cattle herd big time b/c of the drought El Nino is having on them. That meat will end up in the good 'ole USA, with our strong $$...the longer effect of this, IMHO, will keep the beef shortage extended at least another year. As far as China buying?? Its just like us WestCoasters....the basis is the biggie.

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                • I just got this message in an email from a contact in NW Ohio:

                  We certainly don’t need any more rain at this point in time. Farmers in NW Ohio did not get their crops planted, because of the amount of rain. Last week of June – they expected about 100,000 acres in Defiance County that would not be planted. Also, wheat is still in the fields – still too wet to combine.
                  And that is just one county. It is about midway between Toledo and Ft Wayne. I have heard similar stories from nearby counties but this is the first one that included some numbers.

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                  • One of the majors started making a pile today. I have never seen a pile started in July before. Do they know some thing I don't? Or are they just waiting for buffet to come and haul the corn away?

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                    • On the pile... Who knows there intent. Why not just call and ask them? It is interesting. Is it in an area where little got planted? I know a lot of old crop corn got bought before and during run up. If the quality is good coming in they could be trying to capture the carry and price appreciation into next spring/summer. Or maybe they are just trying something new and shipping it somewhere and didn't have full capacity to do so. It's easier to just ask than assume.

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                      • Last time I saw a pile in July was to empty a bin for repairs.

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                        • We have gotten a half inch of rain in last month. We are going backwards quick. Few spotty places got some rain and it's obvious. USDA better start taking notice of the western corn let drying up big time. Not much in 10 day either. Corn rolling up and beans going backwords really quick and it's not that hot. We were the garden spot up to two weeks ago. Last I looked we were 3 I he's behind average and now I'd say it has to be closer to 4. Not going during pollination. Cracks over an inch already. Our rainfall over last 30-40 days is worse than 2012. Know any good rain dances?

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                          • gmart the most effective rain dances require plenty of naked women. To avoid trouble at home it is best to let your other half choose the dancers. Add a large bonfire of old seed pallets and some shine and I'm sure it will work. Since we recommend continuous dancing until the rain starts and It may take several days or even longer be sure to have plenty of everything on hand. After the first day plan to have pizza delivered several times a day as it will become difficult to cook on the fire due to your continued trance like concentration on all the above ingredients. Hope you get some rain soon (or not).

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                            • When you get bored dancing, have some whipped cream in the can handy,,, double's as shaving cream,,, tasted great/less filling )

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                              • Hmmmmm....... Don't know a thing about if this will bring rain or not but the concept sounds very intriguing! Just make sure it is the real thing dancing sure don 't want any agwebbers dancing in drag! Db in a kilt scares the heck out of me, sans the kilt I don't even want to think about that! How in the world can I wash that random thought out of my mind.
                                Last edited by SIllinoisfarmer; 07-24-2015, 12:31 PM. Reason: spelling, dang Ipad and word association!

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