Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Marketing 2015

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • extended forcasts are not as wet but with the heavy rains the last few days it should keep prices supported,but with the markets getting over bot you could see some profit taking.once traders start using low 160's for yield corn won't break much.sub 160's will push dec corn to $5.crop conditions dropped hard again in the ecb,more acres will be lost to flooding also.for every ac that is lost theres another 2-3 ac next to it that wont yield much.2-3 day breaks in the grains need to be bot.

    Comment


    • Stage one complete OR IMO the short covering part of this rally is about done.

      Stage #2 has just started (new buying) in the last 3 days OI is up 26k as price rose .17 in ZCZ, this is a bullish sign. This is nothing compared to the short covering buying but its good start. ALL MA on the daily's are moving higher *****THIS IS IMPORTANT*****, I've mention this a fair amount in the last couple of weeks.

      Stage #3 export buying seems to be MIA or at least in the northern hemisphere.

      We have rallied ZCZ .92 low to last nights high, straight up and we're very over bought. A "quiet" pull back to 4.30/.35 would be healthy, better yet would be trade 4.60-.70 THEN back down to 4.50 to re-test the break-out level.

      As for me, my order yesterday was 4.55 even (day trade only) with nothing in for today. I'll just sit on the side-lines for now. Only little caution would be we hit 4.542 as we slept. I would say remember that feeling in your gut when ZCZ14 traded to 3.18 last fall this may help in placing target order above the market.

      USDA's report they left corn imports @ 25 mb This number is slow to move, IMVSO its moving higher all ready we just don't know it yet..........

      Comment


      • Well that sure was a crummy close. I did have my Dec cash contract trigger last night while I was sound asleep, I bet a lot of other farmers did also...Maybe it wasn't such a crummy close after all, lots of selling to digest.

        Looks like we're going to chop sideways to higher at a lower level after all. Probably not a bad thing for now.

        Crop conditions will keep getting worse, supply numbers will continue to drop. These facts haven't changed.

        What did we learn from todays market? $4.54 sells corn...Remember that number from our price support discussion 48?

        We'll see that $4.54 number again in the not too distant future.

        Comment


        • 82, crop conditions MIGHT keep getting worse. The forecasts are reasonably favorable.

          Comment


          • "past 3 weeks thru 7/7 managed-$$ funds reduced short positions in corn by 249k contracts, initiated 51k new longs .. bull market ? really?"

            This is a little different then my numbers but you get the point. On Fridays report I made a comment about a subdued trade, then when we broke 4.50 we should have had ape manure buying (new buying and short buying on buy stops) but again I would call it subdued. Toss in the high was made last night as we all slept with a major dash of mega intra volumes (topping anything since the report) on today's close. Unless we rebound quickly tonight my guess would be a deeper set-back to 4.20ish by weeks end. This is a 38% RT and the 18 day will be there by Friday. Gapping lower tonight would be a bad sign.....

            Comment


            • Tas: Good job.

              Comment


              • You guys better learn to graph the weekly change on the COT report. Alternatively, you could subscribe to Brock and look at their graphical representation. I would say SB could have some legs when USDA shows the real acres in Aug. Has anybody noticed SRW vs HRW??? Don't forget that when all those ducks and geese migrate back south this fall, avian influenza could kill poultry feed demand which dwarfs cattle and hogs. Aaannnddd...not only is it a totally vertically integrated market, it is not transparent. It is hard to get meaningful info. He!!, you can't even get the MN/IA direct HOGS cuz it violates revealing individual producers. And, poultry transparency is a joke. Just don't forget that those ducks and geese will be flying back south again and cold weather will aggravate avian influenze. Hogs got past PEDv with natural immunity build up and vaccines. That's not the case in poultry.

                Comment


                • mfsman: You crack me up with your obsession with natty=NG. You might want to watch what happens if the Teleprompter removes the sanctions on Iran, and Iranian CRUDE starts flooding the market.

                  Comment


                  • 82: What's the ARC payment going to be??? ROTFLMAO. JHF

                    Comment


                    • 48 put on your big boy pants and sell the NG. NG has been a proxy for heat with better than 1/3 electric generation from that source and growing. Since last week NGQ on close has gone from 268.50 to 290.30. I had 35 NGQ and 10 NGU. Yesterday I rolled 15 Q to U at +.60 to U. I sold out 10 Q at 290 and bought 5 U at 284 to 284.20. Today I rolled the last 10 Q to U at +1 to Q. I am 5 fewer longs and bought 10 Sep Crude yesterday 52.20 to 53.30. I am a loser on that today. If you think Iran will have any impact within this calendar year dream on. I did buy Silver on the break today and next week should see the lows. I have more to buy lower. To think that I am leaving the CBOT alone for weather concerns. I have several other positions on but nothing with CBOT at present. I am looking to buy wheat on a further break. We are long enough protein in the family.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by 48 View Post
                        82: What's the ARC payment going to be??? ROTFLMAO. JHF
                        For me, here for the 2014 crop, $60-$70/base acre nothing has happened market wise to change that. You know that.

                        Hopefully I won't get a payment for my 2015 crop. Futures, basis or both have a ways to go up before that won't happen.

                        Comment


                        • Nice close today in Dec15 corn, good over night opening too. It doesn't look like the sky was falling yesterday after all. Looks like the 2015 low was put in about June 16th...happy birthday to me if it was.

                          No worries about the bird flu 48. The Canada gooses...they're all dead. Gonna be some pretty disappointed hunters this fall. Should be plenty of turkey for Thanksgiving though, most barns are repopulated up Nort here already.

                          Seriously though the DNR has been testing wild bird sh...fecal matter, and quite a few dead birds in the MN counties that have bird flu outbreaks. They only found one dead Chickadee and a dead Coopers Hawk that tested positive. Because of their testing effortsThe DNR is showing an interest in raptor's. Don't raptor's eat other birds and animals. Do poultry by-products get put in poultry feed as a protein source?

                          Check out the MN DNR website, there's some pretty good info on bird flu.

                          http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/avianinfluenza/index.html

                          Check out the map. Stopped it cold at the Wright county line

                          Last edited by 82; 07-15-2015, 09:44 PM.

                          Comment


                          • SD: You previously posted:

                            "Hey Gary, did you get that perrenenial fallow ground sprayed yet? Looks like it is time."

                            Why did you delete your post?

                            To answer your question, it's kind of hard to go to the field when your main tillage tractor has been sabotaged. It's rather difficult to get them worked on during wheat harvest.

                            It is interesting that Dennis posts the article from DTN on cattle theft.

                            But, I appreciate your post cuz it makes it interstate. We can by pass the KBI and turn this over immediately to the FBI.

                            I have a feeling that you and your friends are going to be singing like song birds and wearing orange jump suits before long.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by 48 View Post
                              SD: You previously posted:

                              "Hey Gary, did you get that perrenenial fallow ground sprayed yet? Looks like it is time."

                              Why did you delete your post?

                              To answer your question, it's kind of hard to go to the field when your main tillage tractor has been sabotaged. It's rather difficult to get them worked on during wheat harvest.

                              It is interesting that Dennis posts the article from DTN on cattle theft.

                              But, I appreciate your post cuz it makes it interstate. We can by pass the KBI and turn this over immediately to the FBI.

                              I have a feeling that you and your friends are going to be singing like song birds and wearing orange jump suits before long.
                              Why did I, because I decided I would wait for a less important thread. But since you responded, if your big tractor has been down for a few years and you can't get a mechanic out to fix it, I would think a man of your wealth would just go but a new one. BTW, don't you have sprayers around there?

                              Comment


                              • Getting dry here, took some culls to the salebarn yesterday am and most pivots to the north of me 15 miles were running. Fired mine up this am.

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X