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Ramifications of the big oil drop

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  • Ramifications of the big oil drop

    this is a huge tax relief to consumers, the FED will be raising interest rates unabated in 2015, bond markets so out a whack they have no choice, production capacity its at its max with its current work force being pushed to there limits so job hirings will continue in 2015, wage scales will slowly creep up as cola factors will have to be offset, inflation will be snow balling and grain prices to the moon Alice as smart money are already placing there bets in the grain trading arena's.Market's that refuse to go down with a bearish back drop is extremely bullish.Land prices will demand higher payments.I think prices in grains and gold will resume there upward march as the FED is in a big WTF fix and have no alternative but to increase rates as the bond vigilantes win out on this one.
    Plain and simple, oil drop will act as a huge global consuming catalyst going forward and the FED gets there much deserved inflationary train.Things are busily sorting themselves out and everyone is saying WTF in disbelief. jmho.

  • #2
    I usually agree with you, but I think quite the opposite. Feds will not raise rates, they can't. The consumer is totally tapped out and all of the no inflation is total bullsh1t. Dear God, just look at prices of EVERYTING! The lying azz government has been manipulating inflation numbers forever. The only inflated prices are the assets such as housing, land and stocks which are totally marked to fantasyland to keep TBTF banks from imploding. Trust me.....QE4 5 6 7 8 9 are on the way. Rates will stay at zero. We don't just have a housing bubble again, there is now a huge student loan bubble, auto loan bubble....fricking bubbles everywhere .... Something is happening behind the curtain in this oil price manipulation and crash. The only disbelief is consumers think it's great....but they are so far underwater with debt, increased taxes, soaring healthcare....that a llittle pizz azz gasoline price break won't even help finance Christmas dinner.

    Fertilizer, seed, chemicals are going up. This run-up in grains will not last. Feds and Central Banks will have this sorted out by Tuesday 3:30 and stock market will be back to the moon Alice. The 1%ers will be raking it in going forward. Someone is making a killing on this oil debacle...and my guess is it's the folks who orchestrated it. Same crowd as usual.

    You might be needing some Super Lube if you acttually believe the stuff you just posted.

    At Ace Hardware yesterday, a little punk 18 y/o and his tattooed pregnant ho girlfriend come in, make a $ 12.00 purchase with a $ 100.00 bill. They then proceed to buy soda, candy, and other various snack items...then pull out an EBT Link Card to pay for it. Manager said they'd have to go across to the Convenience store as they weren't set up for EBT YET! lmfao.

    That little f'er ain't worrying about inflation...or anything for that matter.

    We're screwed....
    Last edited by db51; 12-14-2014, 08:17 AM.

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    • #3
      DB, its called war on OPEC, the pos Saudi's won't pony up for the war on ISIS and there musloid brotherhood etc, then take them musloid *****ers down all in one quantum swoop and do Putin in the same action.
      The FED'S will raise rates, you cannot have this inversion in the bond market like it is, the FED's are screwed and rates will have to go up and that's why these markets are tumbling.

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      • #4
        the low gas prices make you feel good so you spend more on other stuff no need to save you can get to point B cheeper day of reconing is around the corner---------------dave

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        • #5
          this is going to weigh in on us heavy too drilling rigs are starting to fall big time companys are cutting back fast JUST LIKE GRAIN its below production new car sales in certin modles will falter also the electric will almost be dead it will also hurt mid size diesel pickup sales {$1} difference I hate to say it but the US is better off with $3 $3.50 gass

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          • #6
            david you are right about auto/trucks sales, traded up the other day, was in the dealers for three hrs and absolutely no traffic and I named my price!!! got a great trade in price and haggled the base sticker down too.
            Just went fishing for a new truck with a number in my head, after they insulted me, I was walking out and they said what will seal the deal? I said another 5 grand on my trade in, boom it was done.

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            • #7
              While the fed has created mountains of liquidity, it's all sitting at the banks as excess reserves.

              If I printed up $10 trillion in $100 bills, loaded it up on pallets, and shot it into space, would that be inflationary? Of course the answer is 'no' because it's not in 'circulation.'

              Same thing when the crunch occurs; only bankers will have liquidity; mere citizens only have debt, and (living paycheck to paycheck; until they're laid-off) will be scrambling for liquidity to pay their bills.

              This will be the deflationary collapse as debts are defaulted on (deflationary: destroys 'money') and streams of income cease (workers laid-off: extremely deflationary).

              Consider that our (official) national debt is now $18,000,000,000,000.00 and there is only about 1/10th of that amount in actual cash (M0: paper currency and coin) in existence.

              The US Dollar is now not even backed by paper; it's all just 1's and 0's on a computer.

              Collapse in demand that coincides with the highest US consumer sentiment in recent history?
              I think someone's blowing sunshine up my azz.

              Indeed, when the crash comes; cash will be king...
              Last edited by db51; 12-14-2014, 02:31 PM.

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              • #8
                db I'm liking your lots of bubbles comment ie: student loans, auto loans etc. These types of loans are less regulated than the home loan industry and the lenders have been milking these other categories because they can. You left our credit card loans (consumer loans) which is on the upswing again at over $7k per household.

                When farmers start financing their inputs with 15% credit cards we will really be in trouble.

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                • #9
                  when it all ends, no matter which way it will go, the only winner will be Dave B with his anal ease production facility! lol

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                  • #10
                    algos in control....oil rockets over $ 58.00 immediately after open as Saudi's call for $ 40.00. lmfao Bottom is in on oil. Look out below tomorrow on grains. Party is on in Stocks.

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                    • #11
                      I appreciate both DB and Tom's post as quite knowledgeable in perspective. I have taken a sabbatical from the markets since 2008 with this flawed and fictitious admin. I know what happened under Nixon and Carter to the markets. I was hoping to reenters after the new Congress. What is value $90/acre rent going to $160/acre on nonirrigated land? Seed prices out the roof with the cost of chemicals and fuels also not reflecting the price in fuels? The question is value and foodstuffs have value. What are the values of stock and cost of money. I think the confidence factor what truly at work in the markets when we protect criminals and do not prosecute crime. We are in a very perilous time and greatest concern how we can make a buck! We are screwed.

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                      • #12
                        $160.00/ac? wtf? try 300 on up here.....there are actual intellectually challenged to pay that for corn ground, one good drought would fix there lack of intellegence up rather well.....

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by db51 View Post
                          algos in control....oil rockets over $ 58.00 immediately after open as Saudi's call for $ 40.00. lmfao Bottom is in on oil. Look out below tomorrow on grains. Party is on in Stocks.
                          Tuesday's trading will be the deciding factor, this could be a mere sympathy bounce here today or an interim bottom on oil that got whitewashed with oversold margin calling, I'm looking for some nasty chit murmurings of levered funds to energy or oil cos. going down the tube and banks taking an ugly hit holding the loans.
                          Stocks might go up Dave but watch on what kind of volume, it has to be near record volume to solidify your bottoms in scenario.

                          My bet is the bottoms are not in especially with Fridays quadruple witching re balancing of all positions.It sure could be a doozy.But, as a whole in Dec. this usually begins a Santa Clause rally.
                          Last edited by Tom In Ont; 12-15-2014, 05:55 AM.

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                          • #14
                            interest rate on car loans down to 2.5%,financed a couple new pivots @3.5%,was going to pay cash but figured at that rate why tie up operating capital,there will be some deals on good used equip as everyone tightens ,low rates will make it easier to pay for that needed upgrade,if you can get a good price.

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                            • #15
                              Glad that Australia Musloid Hostage Dude is out of commission....All those hostages and a loaded weapon....and he's the only one that dies?? W T F? As soon as the police realized that Chocolate Shop sold donuts, all he11 broke loose and in they went for the kill.

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