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Marketing Old Crop and New Crop 2012

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  • Marketing Old Crop and New Crop 2012

    AgWeb forum members have shared their crop marketing ideas for years. The past two years are covered in the thread [URL="http://discussions.agweb.com/showthread.php?8643-Marketing-Old-Crop-and-New-Crop"]Marketing Old Crop and New Crop[/URL] which is about 900 pages long.

    At the beginning of the year (today) US May corn is trading at 654'6, May beans stand at 1217'4 and May Wheat at 686'2.

    Here's hoping we all enjoy big yields and good profits in 2012.

    Now let us know what you think.

  • #2
    Hey bins look's like I'll be the first to post on your new tread here , lol

    Good luck to everbody in the comeing year , you'll do OK as long as you don't listen to had Nor we gen from North Dakota --- LMAO just kidding ya Tas !

    Everybody have a great new years eve !!!!!!!!!!! Ken

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    • #3
      Ha Ha Ken it could be worse,,,,,,,,,, I could be a Pollock !!!!!!!!!!! I came home and did a double take,like where did all the pages go on the old thread !!!!! But good idea Bins, new year,new thread... I sure hope Greg feeds old 48 sitting in the corner LOL

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      • #4
        Hope all have their best marketing year yet! What happened to our old curmudgeon 48 hope he gets back soon?

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        • #5
          Originally posted by SIllinoisfarmer View Post
          Hope all have their best marketing year yet! What happened to our old curmudgeon 48 hope he gets back soon?
          Could be somebody pony expressed a case of ripple to him, so he could enjoy the holidays by himself!!

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          • #6
            Well boy's it looks like Brazil did get some rain but it fizzled out in Argentina .

            One report I got was that there was 20 % was yet to plant ------ because it was to dry . SO the big question will be will that 20 get planted ????? Let's just say it don't for fun , IfI remeber right they origanially put Argentina at 54 MMT minus the 20 % that woul be something like 43.8 MMT .

            Then they had Brazil at 76 MMT Max ! and now at 70 to 72 MMT .

            A good rain could do alot of good down there in the next 2-3 weeks but the forcast I read said it looks like another 2 weeks of dry for now , then if at the end of two weeks , still little or no rain , boys it could get very , very interesting .

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            • #7
              Besides weather, markets will be keeping an eye on the potential for oil supply disruptions in the Straight of Hormuz by Iran. Today [URL="http://www.cnbc.com/id/45845663"]Iran test fired a sea-to shore long range missle [/URL]in the gulf showing their capability. The test was accomplished during their scheduled naval war games. Markets should view this as a little prickly when they open tonight and expect to see oil run past $100 quickly. Will the grains follow? Probably.

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              • #8
                Guess I will be first, I have absolutely 0% sold of both corn and beans for the 2012 crop years. Good Luck to all for marketing the 2012 crop, we will probably need some luck.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by jabber1
                  Hey I wanna reminder everybody that I haven't been wrong once about the markets this year- yet.

                  I wanted to get this in here while I still could.
                  Guess it is hard for either of us to be wrong yet. Neither of us have made any predictions on marketing 2012 new crop yet, so hard to be wrong.

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                  • #10
                    Also, for some reason I thought overnight trading would be open tonight. Guess I was wrong about that too.

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                    • #11
                      ICF - Yeah! I have been watching bloomberg nothing is open. WTF! John

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Faust100F View Post
                        ICF - Yeah! I have been watching bloomberg nothing is open. WTF! John
                        I must have screwed up, I thought the CBOT would be open tonight too. I was interested in if Iran and there Saber rattling with there missiles would have any affects on oil and grain prices. Guess we need to wait until tomorrow. It just does not give me a "warm and comfy feeling" about them having some long-distance missiles. Hope we don't have to go over there and turn Iran into a large, and I guess an extremely large parking lot. The head of that country is nut's so I wouldn't put anything past that guy to do something really stupid like launching one of those missiles at somebody he doesn't like over there.

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                        • #13
                          Crude is traded up around $1.50

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                          • #14
                            Corn prices - can they outperform again in 2012?

                            Corn was one of the few agricultural commodities to achieve a price rise in 2011, if only by a modest 2.8%.

                            Prices were boosted by disappointing US production and, at the end of the year, by the risk of weaker-than-expected South American output too in harvests undertaken early in 2012, after poor weather, blamed on La Nina.

                            Can the grain's resilience continue? Influences will include, besides South American weather, the resilience in demand from the US ethanol industry, which loses tax perks.

                            Commerzbank

                            "The long-term fundamental data indicate that corn is likely to remain the driving force of grain prices.

                            Commerzbank Chicago corn price forecasts for 2012

                            Q1: $6.60 a bushel

                            Q2: $6.80 a bushel

                            Q3: $7.10 a bushel

                            Q4: $7.20 a bushel

                            Forecasts for average price, near-term contract, during the quarter

                            Year average: $6.90 a bushel, (was $6.80 a bushel in 2011)
                            "Biofuels are a dominant force here. However, growth in demand for ethanol production could be modest, mainly because subsidies and trade intervention to promote ethanol production in the US are under debate and are to be phased out. .

                            "Although demand for animal feed has declined in the US, global demand for corn used as animal feed is high. Additional demand could come from China. Growth in meat consumption remains high in this still rapidly growing nation.

                            "Overall, this gives a picture which shows higher profitability for corn in 2012. Hence, acreage for corn could be extended.

                            "Even if the corn acreage is being expanded, corn should remain in relatively short supply given the robust demand. At below 14%, the global stocks-to-use ratio is still low enough to support prices for the foreseeable future."

                            Goldman Sachs

                            "Corn supplies are disappointing for the 2011-12 crop year that started on September 1, following both a deficit in the previous crop year and adverse weather conditions this spring and summer in the US.

                            "Constrained by these low supplies, corn demand needs to be rationed through elevated prices. This demand destruction is still required under our economists' lower 2012 US and world economic growth forecasts.

                            "As we expect higher gasoline prices, we do not expect ethanol demand destruction through negative blending economics - it would require an $8.00-a-bushel corn price to push the cost of producing ethanol above our forecasted RBOB gasoline prices in January, when the blender tax credit expires."

                            Morgan Stanley

                            "Tight US and global fundamentals leave us constructive on corn at least through the beginning of 2012 as larger livestock herds suggest higher US feed demand than is currently modelled by the US Department of Agriculture.

                            "However, high prices are already eliciting production response from countries like Argentina, Brazil and the Ukraine, reducing the call on US exports, with US production likely to follow in 2012-13.

                            "Globally, we see feed consumption increasing modestly by 4% year on year as growing emerging market demand for meat requires a further expansion in the livestock herd. This demand growth will likely be tempered by an increase in wheat feeding elicited by high relative corn prices."

                            "With forward blending margins positive ex-credit, we do not expect a meaningful drop in [US] domestic ethanol demand. With the RFS mandate growing to 13.2bn gallons (equivalent to about 4.7bn bushels of corn) we see total 2011-12 corn demand from ethanol, down only modestly by about 50m bushels year on year, on lower US ethanol exports."

                            Rabobank

                            "We expect corn prices to rally from current spot prices into the second quarter of 2012 before easing in the fourth quarter of 2012 on record production.

                            Rabobank forecasts for Chicago corn price in 2012

                            Q1: $6.10 a bushel

                            Q2: $6.45 a bushel

                            Q3: $6.30 a bushel

                            Q4: $6.10 a bushel

                            Forecasts for average price, near-term contract, during the quarter
                            "Second and third quarter 2012 corn prices will prove difficult to forecast as the US corn complex moves from a strong deficit to a moderate surplus, with prices highly path-dependent as the market attempts to guide 2012-13 acreage in the US.

                            "Rabobank forecasts continued reductions to the US Department of Agriculture corn ending stocks projections as use creeps higher on strong ethanol margins and relatively strong exports, while simultaneously, there is also a significant risk of further yield downgrades in the final 2011 [US] crop report due in January 2012.

                            "Key risks to our forecast include the possibility of negligible La Nina effects and subsequently strong South American exports, as we currently forecast a lower export than the USDA for the continent.

                            "Rabobank forecasts 2012-13 will see global corn production of 885m tonnes, a 3.4% increase on our 2011-12 forecast and the highest on record."

                            Standard Chartered

                            "Corn markets have been battered by plentiful feed wheat and slowing demand from China, as well as investors.

                            Standard Chartered forecasts for Chicago corn price in 2012

                            Q1: $7.00 a bushel

                            Q2: $7.35 a bushel

                            Q3: $7.00 a bushel

                            Q4: $6.75 a bushel

                            Forecasts for average price, near-term contract, during the quarter

                            Year average: $7.03 a bushel
                            "Nevertheless, we believe that corn prices will find their feet as concerns about global economic growth fade by the second quarter of2012 and the focus returns to fundamentals, which we believe are extremely supportive.

                            "We also expect China to remain an opportunistic buyer of US corn given the structural decline in its corn balances.

                            "We expect corn prices to lead the grains market higher in the first half of 2012 as inventories are drawn down and market sentiment improves."

                            US Commodities

                            "The corn market has been supported by the last 18 months by US and world production problems. The world grain supplies are building as production has increased.

                            US Commodities forecast for Chicago corn price range, 2012

                            $5.40-6.50 a bushel, assuming neutral fundamentals

                            Forecast for near-term contract
                            "It is the South American weather which holds the first potential bullish catalyst.

                            "[US] ethanol growth in 2012 will go flat, and be similar to 2011.

                            "The [US] conservation reform probably will lower conservation acres from 32m currently 25m. The additional acres brought back from preventive planting could also add 2m-3m corn acres."

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                            • #15
                              Boy it sure is pretty here this morning BUT cold and after talking with the two Dobies this moring they are in agreement this morning that for just for the fun of it , the Dobies think that out of the box this moring , being it a new year , Argie is still 20% unplanted they are calling corn up 20 and beans 35 .

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