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Be Very Afraid of The China Bubble

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  • Faust100F
    replied
    Verb - I agree . . . where is the additional land coming from to be brought into production? Thanks for letting me see the "Big Picture". lol. John

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  • verbatime
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    [URL]http://www.topoquest.com/[/URL]

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  • verbatime
    replied
    topog.

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  • verbatime
    replied

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  • verbatime
    replied
    Would someone point out where all this tillable land is that also happens to be in a climate that promotes corn and bean growth? Looks to me like it's going to take a few years along with a few more pole shifts.

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  • roger7
    replied
    When there is enough money involved, those issues have a way of getting worked out. R7

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  • ses
    replied
    Originally posted by roger7 View Post
    John, you have obviously never seen the 'steppes' of Russia or the Cerrado of Brazil. R7
    I don't think John said the land wasn't available, he said the political corruption would keep it from being farmed because of lack of property rights and also the small acrages that are less efficient to farm on a large scale. Russia might be able to straighten it out and produce, Africa never will.

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  • roger7
    replied
    John, you have obviously never seen the 'steppes' of Russia or the Cerrado of Brazil. R7

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  • Faust100F
    replied
    Beaner great post! Did you notice that they spelled Mao Tse-Tung as " Mao Zedong ", tell me, is it just me! Or . . . is this the result of dumbing down Americans? Or . . . is there a real person named " Mao Zedong "? Well enough on spelling errors in national magazines evidencing the high quality of education in America .

    I agree on the housing bubble and most of the article. However, I disagree that agricultural production in the world will be harmed if China's bubble burst's. The population of the world exceeded 7,000,000,000 souls last week, that is 7,000,000,000 hungry mouths demanding better diets and a huge demand for better quality protein.

    I can see all but one "commodity group" collapsing in China, and of course that group is "food". Governments will have no choice but meet citizen demands for a better life, equal opportunity, and better protein sources. The one thing we are capable of producing a surplus of, is agricultural commodities, the number one, item in every consumer budget in the world.

    Everyone needs food, millions are now starving in Africa, and if that happens in China, it will sink back into the abyss from which it emerged over the past few decades, thanks to American consumers living beyond their means, and a government which encouraged them to by "wants" instead of "needs".

    Those with the McMansion mentality who thought the party would never end have now been paying the price for the past three years, and will continue to pay that price for decades to come. Our economy is in shambles, but one bright spot exists that seemed to avoid the depression bullet this time around. Of course I am talking about Agriculture.

    I think the author is correct in crying "wolf" but . . . we are in an "Economic War", Europe is in shambles they are no longer a viable player in this game, they have already lost. The remaining enemy to be defeated is "China" and this will happen as the Yuan rises in value which will have to occur as the standard of living in China increases. Of course no government that wants to remain in power can let food sources dwindle, and like in any consumer budget food stuffs (grains and meats) will the the one item the will be put on the chopping block last.

    Should that standard of living collapse, turmoil will ensue, but the demand for food (corn, soybeans, rice, and meat products) will not decrease, because the days of "surplus" crops and dumping them in the ocean to support prices as was done in the 50's in the U.S. will not reoccur. We are in a situation were we cannot now produce enough food for the world, and the selection process has already began regarding who will live and who will starve. Sadly Africa is where the first "starving domino" has fallen.

    Therefore my argument is, we are the lucky ones, we have the land, the cheap dollar, the infrastructure, and the smartest farmers in the world to meet world demand. As I like to say, we are the Wal-mart to the world, when it comes to agricultural commodities. Did you notice the blip in the wheat market last week, when the Ukraine decided to export wheat and reduce tariffs?

    I really enjoy reading about how vast lands exist to be exploited for agricultural production in Russia and its former republics, but the grass is not always greener elsewhere, especially in a group of countries where gangsterism controls government and business, and no real "rule of law" governing land ownership or enforceability of contracts exists.

    There are huge tracts of land in the former Soviet Union to be exploited as there is in Africa, the problem with Russia is it is mostly comprised of 10 acre tracts, lets see to put together a 1000 acre farm, it would only take 100 landlords agreeing to rent to the tenant; and in Africa . . . well what do I need to say about Africa when most of the "White African Farmers" who lived to get out with nothing . . . moved to the United States to start over, if they did not, they were murdered.

    So I disagree with the demise of American Markets, especially by someone who writes an article and misspells " Mao Zedong ". LMAO! John
    Last edited by Faust100F; 11-02-2011, 09:01 PM.

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  • roger7
    replied
    When a town has one lawyer, he struggles to make a living. When a town has two lawyers, they both prosper handsomely. R7

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  • Faust100F
    replied
    ICF - better have "your" attorney look over the transaction, never trust a lawyer where elderly people are involved, and always get a second opinion. Remember lawyers in Iowa do not get rich being honest. When you find an honest lawyer in Iowa send me his name. I once told the Supreme Court of Iowa Justices who interviewed me for the Bar Examination in Iowa, that "I had never met a lawyer in Iowa worth a damn and I could make a fortune in this State suing lawyers." They published my quote in the DSM Register. Lol. John

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  • IA CORN FARMER
    replied
    Originally posted by drdiederich View Post
    Wow, you lucky man, I wish I had a mother-in-law that could do that... you should be very nice to her, what a great gift- the kind that keeps on giving!
    Yea, been out combining all day, getting close to being dome. So far this harvest has gone well. On the quarter section, the quarter was bought by my mother-in-laws, grandfather and has been in the family many years. With land prices going so high, this is what her tax Attorney/estate planner has told here to do for proper tax planning. I have seen some farmland sold to pay the tax bill because of poor estate planning. Estate Planning is one thing you need to do right if you are to avoid kids selling a farm or 2 to pay Mr. Taxman.

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  • drdiederich
    replied
    Originally posted by IA CORN FARMER View Post
    she is a pretty good mother-in-law, she is in the process of gifting the wife a really nice quarter section, mid-80's CSR rating so excellent corn ground. I had better be nice to her.
    Wow, you lucky man, I wish I had a mother-in-law that could do that... you should be very nice to her, what a great gift- the kind that keeps on giving!

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  • IA CORN FARMER
    replied
    Originally posted by 48 View Post
    ICF: Learn to think outside the box. Go to Belize instead. They love Americans. Buy a house while you're down there. That way when the shxt hits the fan, you will have your safe haven and passport already set up. You're welcome.
    Maybe your right, I need to think out of the box. Maybe forget to bring mother-in-law back to the states and leave her down there!!!
    Just kidding, she is a pretty good mother-in-law, she is in the process of gifting the wife a really nice quarter section, mid-80's CSR rating so excellent corn ground. I had better be nice to her.

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  • 48
    replied
    Originally posted by IA CORN FARMER View Post
    Plenty good guys on Faust, hope he reads this. You know, I might tell the wife to plan a week this winter when the kids are out of school and we all take time off and go to FL. Be me, wife, kids, and mother-in-law. Mother-in-law snores pretty bad, so I will have to get her, her own hotel room.
    ICF: Learn to think outside the box. Go to Belize instead. They love Americans. Buy a house while you're down there. That way when the shxt hits the fan, you will have your safe haven and passport already set up. You're welcome.

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