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Oct. 12 Report

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  • Oct. 12 Report

    What does everyone think? Our yield map numbers for corn show 143 bpa vs. USDA's 148.

    What's closer?

  • #2
    Who knows what the real numbers will be. All I know is the direction of the trade this morning is a little confusing. What I would consider bullish news for beans is being met with a ho hum attitude. Beans trading unchanged at 10:15 cst.

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    • #3
      Bins somebody pointed out in the survey I did as part of my blog the other day that corn is to farm commodities as gold is to metals. They said soybeans and wheat are both fighting to be the silver of farm commodities. I tend to agree with that basically, and if corn is down, then soybeans will be the same way regardless of fundamentals on soybeans alone tell us.

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      • #4
        Boss: I dunno. I actually think USDA is low. Informa's survey dwarfs your poll, and I think Informa is closer with 149.1. I fully expect USDA to increase yield on succeeding reports. However, I think the direct evidence that we get from farmers here on AW is extremely important. That's why I know USDA is FOS on cotton.

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        • #5
          Boss: 143 is just way too low. Late planting reduces yield. The freeze in the NCB reduced yield. But, look at the reports and pictures from RCR in OHIO with June planted corn. He's got super yields despite late planting. It seemed to work for the Ohio River Valley.

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          • #6
            Bins: We still have a good SB crop...6th largest ever? And, Arg+Brazil have a glut of SB. Distillers is replacing SBM. In fact...IMHO...distillers is how we made it thru the summer despite tight corn stocks cuz it reduces the amount of corn required in beef rations 20%. If USDA would post Distillers S&D like they do SBM S&D, it would be obvious what happened.

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            • #7
              My two cents on late planted corn. We purposely planted our silage corn first week in june because the chopper wasn't going to show up after labor day - planted 117 day hybrids. This late corn would only tassle two seeks later than the 112 and 114 day corn planted 5 weeks earlier and was almost always better corn than our earlier planted, never cold stressed, usually better seedbed. Got pretty tall too, I assume with the heat units and sunlite. One theory on moisture stress was that sometimes the earlier stuff didn't root down when we had adequate moisture, then when mother nature surned it off, like it always does out here for 4 or 5 weeks, got too stressed. The later corn was forced to root down a a better time, and also generally got a rain by the time it tassled or shortly after. alot of guys around here say, especially with dryland, if it isn;t in by the 10th of may, wait till the 1st of June.

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              • #8
                VI: You always plant corn late for silage to make it grow taller to increase tonnage. When it's planted late, the nodes elongate to try to compensate. And, when you know you're going to chop it, you're not worried about it getting froze before black layer. And, you are not so worried about pushing pollination into heat like you are with grain...granted the grain is what gives you tonnage.

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                • #9
                  the most bearish thing has to be the trend of carryout's we have seen over the past several months versus the trends of a year ago

                  crops maybe not bigger in the US but world crops are bigger and more importantly is the fact that world and us carryouts are on the increase month over month and many year over year................whereas a year ago the trend was smaller smaller and smaller...........
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                  • #10
                    I like this survey, but think you need to further breakdown your data. Given the current 143bu on corn, perhaps you need to breakdown your data as it came into you in weekly buckets. Are AGWEB guys harvesting there worst corn fields first and then doing the higher yielding fields second? You need to see what the trend is broken down by weekly buckets, is the weekly bucket headed higher or lower? If the weekly bucket is headed higher, then maybe your 143bu number is headed higher too. The weekly bucket would be a very simple thing to do and the trend of the 143bu number could be seen and partially accounted for. I would start out doing this before you get into the much more complicated analysis of data using the many mathmatical formules and rules for conducting a survey.

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                    • #11
                      Who do we believe on the size of the Chinese crop ? Todays report,or the report from the trade group that recently visited China and pegged their corn crop significantly lower ? If they really have a bigger crop,would they be jumping in with both feet and buying over here ?

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                      • #12
                        very solid demand on Chinese corn..........perhaps one should look at the report and notice the fact that despite the corn production increased carryout was left unchanged............ meaning demand might be out pacing supply increases
                        [B][FONT="Lucida Sans Unicode"][B][B]You can't get where you are going if you don't know where you want to go!

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by MissouriClone View Post
                          Bins somebody pointed out in the survey I did as part of my blog the other day that corn is to farm commodities as gold is to metals. They said soybeans and wheat are both fighting to be the silver of farm commodities. I tend to agree with that basically, and if corn is down, then soybeans will be the same way regardless of fundamentals on soybeans alone tell us.
                          Greg . . . not that I am a "pour salt in the wound" kinda guy but . . . that soybean wheat theory is not working out well today. Wheat down 35 beans up 7 can you tell me which one is "silver" today. Just yanking your 30 ft. Rope! LMAO! John

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Faust100F View Post
                            Greg . . . not that I am a "pour salt in the wound" kinda guy but . . . that soybean wheat theory is not working out well today. Wheat down 35 beans up 7 can you tell me which one is "silver" today. Just yanking your 30 ft. Rope! LMAO! John
                            Haha I came back to post the same thing and you beat me to it. Soybeans even dragged corn back up off its lows. Was corn kicking and screaming or are soybeans the new gold?

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by 48 View Post
                              Boss: I dunno. I actually think USDA is low. Informa's survey dwarfs your poll, and I think Informa is closer with 149.1. I fully expect USDA to increase yield on succeeding reports. However, I think the direct evidence that we get from farmers here on AW is extremely important. [B]That's why I know USDA is FOS on cotton[/B].

                              Thank you 48! There is no cotton to speak of here in the cotton belt. All that has been harvested is running around [B]50% of APH at best[/B] and then add on the 100,000's of acres already plowed up and zeroed on insurance there is not near the size of crop they are saying.

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