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  • #16
    Boss do you think you need a fudge factor with that 143 bu. ? When farmers want prices to go back up yields tend to be lower then actual.Maybe when the snows fly's you need a "Bragging right" yield number and compare the two !!!!!

    1000% agree with Frosty,I posted a few months back as to the time corn has spent over $6 compared to 2008 and demand destruction and that we may NOT need a 13 bb crop,,, well looks like we don't.... And IMO this trend will continue into 2012 as it did into 2009 Today History lesson brought to you by "Ole" and "Lars" Luteifsk

    The next thing you'll hear,,,,oophs we're all ready starting to hear, is rammed up world wide produce.
    Ukraine corn produce Oct. 2010-11 11.9
    Oct. 2011-12 21
    Source, this morning report,that is a 76% increase in production in ONE year gentlemen... Not mention SA. Now I have no clue if the big spec money looks at stuff like this or not, but that sure as hxll makes me think...




    Originally posted by JeremeyFrost View Post
    the most bearish thing has to be the trend of carryout's we have seen over the past several months versus the trends of a year ago

    crops maybe not bigger in the US but world crops are bigger and more importantly is the fact that world and us carryouts are on the increase month over month and many year over year................whereas a year ago the trend was smaller smaller and smaller...........

    Comment


    • #17
      Tas- looking to increase production and actually doing it are two totally different things. US farmers have been looking to grow more for the last few years to no avail. i think we are starting to see more and more disease pressure and other problems than we have ever seen. Way more yeild detrimentals than in the past. Blame whoever you want but its getting worse and worse.

      Comment


      • #18
        Tas, I've been saying this since June. I have repeatedly posted about how the world will respond to these prices. My latest comments were about how world implement companies are building production plants for tractors and harvesters in Brazil and India to market production enhancing equipment for those parts of the world. Much of the nitrogen fertilizer is already produced in those parts of the world, partly why we have had such quick run ups in prices for US neebs. Potash production expansion in Canada has been going on for 3 years now. New phosphate areas are being discovered and developed. All of this because grain prices are good, but remember we are at the top of a price cycle. R7

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        • #19
          Can anyone show me a chart of what beans corn and wheat have done when paid for with Brazilian reals?

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by Tas View Post
            Boss do you think you need a fudge factor with that 143 bu. ? When farmers want prices to go back up yields tend to be lower then actual.Maybe when the snows fly's you need a "Bragging right" yield number and compare the two !!!!!

            1000% agree with Frosty,I posted a few months back as to the time corn has spent over $6 compared to 2008 and demand destruction and that we may NOT need a 13 bb crop,,, well looks like we don't.... And IMO this trend will continue into 2012 as it did into 2009 Today History lesson brought to you by "Ole" and "Lars" Luteifsk

            The next thing you'll hear,,,,oophs we're all ready starting to hear, is rammed up world wide produce.
            Ukraine corn produce Oct. 2010-11 11.9
            Oct. 2011-12 21
            Source, this morning report,that is a 76% increase in production in ONE year gentlemen... Not mention SA. Now I have no clue if the big spec money looks at stuff like this or not, but that sure as hxll makes me think...
            Well TAS, just finished my Norwegian Burrito.....you know lutefisk rolled up in lefse, with lots of melted butter!!! YUMMM! The King and Queen of Norway are in MN now too!

            Keep in mind that the Ukraine suffered the worst drought in history last year, so does a 76% increase this year, as impressive as it is, take them back to more "normal" production or are the still below? Or does it take them above normal production?

            Demand destruction has taken place, but how much, and at what price levels does demand start to increase? There are a nymber of dairies around here feeding wheat to replace corn. I haven't run the numbers in a while, but I would think corn will soon price itself back into the rations.

            One last question, how many bushels of corn have been double counted? It's not hard to see how some of the early harvested corn could be counted as old crop corn as it is in the elevator, and also counted as new crop corn with the new crop acres.

            Comment


            • #21
              Originally posted by Faust100F View Post
              Greg . . . not that I am a "pour salt in the wound" kinda guy but . . . that soybean wheat theory is not working out well today. Wheat down 35 beans up 7 can you tell me which one is "silver" today. Just yanking your 30 ft. Rope! LMAO! John
              Never would have thought about you, John. LOL.

              Comment


              • #22
                The brick wall we have run into on yields is Ma Nature and her weather.

                Comment


                • #23
                  FWIW, I think 48 or RCR suggested that we may be seeing our yields going higher now that we're getting into the later part of harvest. That is a correct assumption. We are about 4 bu. higher now than we were about 2 weeks ago.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Jabber, damn you're a clear thinker and a better writer. You are seeing some of the same hand writing on the wall that I am looking at. These comments seem to fall on deaf ears on this venue , guess every body likes to be an optimist. That's OK, optimism is what makes the world go forward. R7

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Originally posted by dairyfarmmn View Post
                      Well TAS, just finished my Norwegian Burrito.....you know lutefisk rolled up in lefse, with lots of melted butter!!! YUMMM! The King and Queen of Norway are in MN now too!

                      Keep in mind that the Ukraine suffered the worst drought in history last year, so does a 76% increase this year, as impressive as it is, take them back to more "normal" production or are the still below? Or does it take them above normal production?

                      Demand destruction has taken place, but how much, and at what price levels does demand start to increase? There are a nymber of dairies around here feeding wheat to replace corn. I haven't run the numbers in a while, but I would think corn will soon price itself back into the rations.

                      One last question, how many bushels of corn have been double counted? It's not hard to see how some of the early harvested corn could be counted as old crop corn as it is in the elevator, and also counted as new crop corn with the new crop acres.
                      dairyfarmmn:

                      You may know of dairies feeding wheat, but overall there has been NO DEMAND DESTRUCTION. High beef, pork, and good ethanol profit margins have not caused demand destruction. The only place Demand Destruction may have occurred is in CHICKEN where they are importing CHEAP Black Sea Wheat. But, the real Demand Destruction in chicken is cuz they were over producing way too much and their exports were crummy.

                      You can not show demand destruction in beef. Outweights and days on feed are higher than a year ago. Ditto pork. You can not show demand destruction in ethanol either. Profit margins still existed...5cents/gal at $7 corn. The only "demand destruction" in ethanol has been due to lower overall gasoline sales due to a poor economy...not the high price of corn.

                      The latest USDA S&D for Wheat dropped Feed Use 80 mil bu from 240 in Sep to 160 in OCT. If there was demand destruction in corn, it sure the he!! was not replaced by wheat. lol. DISTILLERS...yes!!! Wheat...NO!

                      BTW...how's your Blackberry been working the last 3 days. lol. JHF.
                      Last edited by 48; 10-13-2011, 10:47 AM.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Originally posted by MissouriClone View Post
                        FWIW, I think 48 or RCR suggested that we may be seeing our yields going higher now that we're getting into the later part of harvest. That is a correct assumption. We are about 4 bu. higher now than we were about 2 weeks ago.
                        Boss: The crummy corn that farmers think is going to go down...always gets cut first. Yields always go up as harvest progresses...in general...year over year.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          dairyfarmmn: How much does milk production go down when you feed wheat? Could you post a typical wheat dairy ration? TIA.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Originally posted by jabber1
                            Yep, we are sputtering a bit when we try to pursue ever higher yields. In the US, we have had the blessing of enough stabilty in our economy, political system, and our currency- that many have been investing lots of capital and effort in ever increasing yields for eons. All the while- we have had access to great technologies. The tools necessary for way forward to higher and higher production in the US is much harder to accomplish when we have had a history of some a semblance of stability for investment, access to technology, and credit.

                            On the flip side- in recent decades- regions with a lot of potential for commodity crop production in much of the rest of the world have suffered a mixture of-
                            - economic upheavals
                            - domestic currency issues
                            - political upheaval
                            - disencentives for investment in production capacity due to tax policies
                            - shortage of credit
                            - a major lack of physical security of property and capital that in a must to expand investment in production of crops.
                            - and of course some lousy crop growing weather from time to time.
                            These major producing regions that have suffered a mixture of the above include the old Soviet block, south Africa, Argentina, and to some extent- Brazil and Australia.

                            If many of the regions with unharnessed production capacity get their act together at the same time that their producers get access to better technologies in machines, crop protection products, and credit- weeeeeeeeellllllllllllllllll- as an Apollo austronaut once said- "Houston we have a problem". Profits in commodity crop production has a way of stimulating investment in commodity crop production. The areas of the world with the most potential for increasing production (IF THEY CAN INCREASE SECURITY OF NEW INVESTMENT ) are NOT in the US.

                            The aging of our producers, our land costs, and our own set of economic problems will be our obstacles to further prosperity and increased productivity per acre in commodity crop production.
                            jabber: Very good post...but...you did not mention what r3020 correctly pointed out...Ma Nature. Trend line yield for this year was 162 and next year should be 164. Keep in mind that trend line yield is a straight line plotted on a scatter chart that reflects crummy weather years just like this one. Informa is forecasting 94.3mil acres for next year, and trendline yield increases about 2 bu/a/yr. If THAT happens and we have ideal weather....THEN..."Houston we have a problem." lol.

                            Adding to the Black SwanS is the likely disappearance of the Direct Payment and CCP and ACRE and less subsidy to crop insurance that banks insist upon. Throw in the fact that Ukraine is becoming the No. 3 corn exporter behind Arg, and it gets worse. Throw in the fact that a trade war is looming between US and China, and I would hate to be growing SB. Those are the things that I worry about...not the items you listed. lol.
                            Last edited by 48; 10-13-2011, 10:27 AM.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Do you guys know how USDA comes up with corn Feed&Residual? They take total domestic use and subtract Food, Seeds, Industrial cuz they have good, quantifiable numbers on those areas. Ethanol is included under Industrial. Well...excuse me...but wouldn't it be better to try to quantify:

                              1. Beef
                              2. Pork
                              3. Poultry Layers
                              4. Poultry Broilers
                              5. Dairy

                              Which of those feeders uses the most corn?

                              Hint:

                              From CattleFax for the week of 30Sep11 Meat Production (million pounds):

                              1. Poultry: 778.4
                              2. Beef: 522.7
                              3. Pork: 451.4

                              And...that does not even include the corn the LAYERS eat.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by MissouriClone View Post
                                FWIW, I think 48 or RCR suggested that we may be seeing our yields going higher now that we're getting into the later part of harvest. That is a correct assumption. We are about 4 bu. higher now than we were about 2 weeks ago.
                                However,the moisture % of the corn coming out now will lower yields somewhat. In Minnesota there is a lot of corn coming out at 11-12%. Didn't think that naturally dried corn would go that low.

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