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wheres this price of milk going?

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  • wheres this price of milk going?

    just wondering .how far the fall befor it comes back?,I hear $17 befor going back to $20, but with these feed cost ,ya have to run a real tight ship

  • #2
    Originally posted by pldairy View Post
    just wondering .how far the fall befor it comes back?,I hear $17 befor going back to $20, but with these feed cost ,ya have to run a real tight ship
    Down...right along with the price of corn.

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    • #3
      It'll go down lower than 17 but premiums will keep the take home higher than 17... it will go up to 21-22 range (including premiums) so I guess I am more or less agreeing with what you are hearing pl. It'll be all about expense control and keeping those ladies milking with good feet under them while getting them pregnant... with feed being such a large portion of costs its always were we all like to look but, more or less, we all deal with those same costs... I like to pay attention to the other "small " things more to refocus efficiency and make gains by adding up all the "little" things.
      [URL="http://www.facebook.com/DiederichFarm"]DiederichFarm[/URL]
      "You are only as good as your next success, not your last" Sir Jock Stirrup

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      • #4
        Did anyone see the last Hoards' jeeze some guy in there was saying milk was going up compaired to 2011 he shore wasn't looking at the cme or the article is 4 months old.

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        • #5
          I saw that article... he'll be right if the world economy gets better as the ever increasing demands of the developing world matter more and more to our prices... i just don't see a big improvement coming in that arena. Our main export countries will continue to do well but we need much more demand growth (or a big and unlikely contraction in production somewhere) to get the prices that he is putting forth. I hope that he is right though.
          [URL="http://www.facebook.com/DiederichFarm"]DiederichFarm[/URL]
          "You are only as good as your next success, not your last" Sir Jock Stirrup

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          • #6
            Texas up 8.6% in production...........How does that work with the worst drought in years? Where is the price milk going according to those who know? It's going the same place crap goes when you flush the toilet........Also just before coming over here, I read that cheese continues to drop, unless consumers uptick demand...........well. Today in Bismarck at a grocery 5 lbs sliced American cheese was a whooping $19.99. $4.00 a lb. Market commodity cheese is a long way from that. It won't probably won't be long before all are urged to lock in 16.00! No one at this time 2010 predicted 2011 prices. DFA meeting in September was predicting 13.50 Class III averages for 2011. Not long after people jumped in on upsurge & locked in $15.00. Whole thing's nothing more then a Ponzi Scheme. They're about as accurate as the weatherman IMO.
            Last edited by Smallest Dairy Farmer; 02-08-2012, 09:32 PM.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by pldairy View Post
              just wondering .how far the fall befor it comes back?,I hear $17 befor going back to $20, but with these feed cost ,ya have to run a real tight ship
              I'm guessing it will drop to about $9/cwt. Hey.....if guber can tell us it's going to $30, which it didn't. Then I can say it's going to $9.... I just hope I'm not right.

              Right now the cheese price works out to be around $15 dollar milk for Feb.

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              • #8
                Yea I missed that one by a little!

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                • #9
                  Well, we're praying it doesn't fall into the 14's. If we start storing 2% of our production, don't beef enuf dairy cows/heifers, AND have an early spring?, it'll get ugly. At least DB's new, improved super lube will contain a higher % of butter, to give you that "sweet creamy" effect!!

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                  • #10
                    [url]http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf[/url]

                    Got to Pg. 34:

                    Class III: 16.70-17.40
                    Class IV: 16.25-17.05

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                    • #11
                      Good info., 48; but when you figure that the above statistics are for this years[2012] ave., it doesn't bode well for the so-called spring flush. I personally think that their projection price for class IV will prove to be low, and the whey is probably pushing demand more than cheese.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Smallest Dairy Farmer View Post
                        They're about as accurate as the weatherman IMO.
                        You think they're that good? Even the weatherman gets it right sometimes.... :-)
                        [URL="http://www.facebook.com/DiederichFarm"]DiederichFarm[/URL]
                        "You are only as good as your next success, not your last" Sir Jock Stirrup

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                        • #13
                          Well 48 it's more a feel good report than the other................Will check the only report that will matter, the milk check, since we all control what what we can & can't change the rest. Not complicated I guess............have to de-stress once in a while..

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by drdiederich View Post
                            You think they're that good? Even the weatherman gets it right sometimes.... :-)
                            I think the weather man probably wins this one...

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                            • #15
                              i think milk is overdone and scewed MUCH more towards reward than risk right now. we have broken almost $3 in the mar contract in about a month...technically, momentum indicators are way overdone, and we came within a few pennies in the mar, apr, and may contracts of having two equal legs down with a small consolidation in the middle...this argues that this move lower is corrective but the velocity of the drop does concern me. i think we should find some support in here and with the speed of this decline apr, may, and june puts have gotten some nice juice put into them...might think about selling a few.

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