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La Nina & 1988

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  • La Nina & 1988

    If you have DTN, read: "Early Winter Forecast: Soil Moisture" by Bryce Anderson. DTN's meteorolgist, Mike Palmerino says: "The Plains winter wheat area is already much drier than it was a year ago...Should drought intensify in the Southwest Plains during the winter, the chance for drought ballooning into the Midwest increases for next spring...If La Nina persists, the drought track would be from the Southwestern Plains into the Western Corn Belt for next year, assuming that La Nina continues." Here in NW KS we are pitiful dry. Summerfallow wheat came up ok, but it is starting to suffer. Wheat drilled back into cornstalks came up spotty or not at all. I know that a month or so ago the KC area got massive rains like 2"/hr, but just wanted to pass along Palmerino's info and to verify that the Southwestern Plains are dry indeed. The top soil here is dry on the top 5" and neighbors trying to strip till on NH3 on IRRIGATED ground are breaking bolts and shanks plus losing valuable NH3 to gassing off. Many have stopped fertilizing and are putting on 1" of irrigation which will soak down 6" through the dry top 5" and permit a successful resumption of strip tilling without tearing up tractors, strip till units, and losing valuable NH3. Best.

  • #2
    I know that you are right and I pray that rains come your way...but the facts that you laid out are just that...FACTS...

    In matters of style, swim with the current; in matters of principle, stand like a rock. Thomas Jefferson


    • #3
      We of course have all winter here to get things straighened out but the soil is also a bit dry for the time of year here. we were fortunate to have modest rains to keep the surface moist but we will need a soaking. I do believe that weather history here would suggest that the first killing frost was about as late as it ever has been here. This fall had many days with well above ave temps.


      • #4
        we got rain here in mid mo. monday.1inch and the wheat looks good but sub soil is very dry. we always get sub soil re charged during winter so i am not worried yet. best


        • #5
          jabber: The average date of the first freeze here is Oct. 5th. I always wait for a hard freeze on the milo so I don't have to run that juicy stuff through my combine. Never happened!!! I finally gave up and started cutting. We STILL haven't had a hard freeze. The damn milo keeps using soil moisture after it black layers cuz it's a perennial. If I had known the fall was going to be this warm, I would have burned it down with glyphosate to speed up harvest AND save subsoil moisture. Hi Dave: you sure saw with your own eyes how dry it is here. Sludgeman: looks like you're from Mid Mo. Do you know Dave in Mid Mo and Tony??? jabber: The milo was Pioneer 85G46 and ranged from 52 to 88 bu/a with the overall average=74. Test weight=60.00-61.70=MONEY. And, this was with no rain in July or August until 8-21-07, and then I got 2.07" over three days. People can slam Pioneer all they want, but it makes me money. My neighbor 2mi north of here cut 276 bu/a irrigated corn=33B54, and ses, dennis, and 08 saw it on our crop tour so that readers will know that I'm not blowing smoke. Best.