This isn't the first time that I have said this but
this year looks eerily similar to last year when
we made highs on Jan. 6. Then had the customary
Feb Slide so they can screw us on the insurance
guarantees. Then it rose thru March. Then, it crashed
thru April. Then it rose thru May and topped out
the 1st week of June. I'm talking about corn.
48.......if we repeat last year's tendency perhaps now is a time to be buying the board???? seems to be rather risky...but when things look the worst is when all sellers have sold....... for corn until we see that fund length has been severally cut we are probably not there.......but we could be closer then many think.....
perhaps a calendar call spread is something to consider.....buying a march or may call or bull call spread and selling a dec call????
48 as you and Jeremey said the lows could be close but the chance is there for alot more down due to the numbers of USDA. I know you don't like options but would you like them now over futures? A may call would give you time even if corn tanks more now it could still have value if corn really rallys back 2 months from now. If you bought the futures and it really tanks your stop would be triggered and done for the time being. Jeremey yor thoughts appreciated as well as you trade options well.
"Crop Markets Called Lower on Wednesday
Jan. 20, 2010
Corn futures are called 3 to 4 cents lower. Overnight trade at 6:30 am CST was 3 1/4 to 3 1/2 cents lower. The rally in the dollar index overnight is expected to keep the corn market on the defensive this morning. In addition, crude oil and gold were lower. However, losses may be limited by ideas that the recent drop in prices will help spur demand.
Soybean futures are called 2 to 3 cents lower. Overnight trade at 6:30 am CST was 2 1/4 to 3 1/4 cents lower. Strength in the dollar index and weakness in gold and crude oil overnight will weigh on the soybean market this morning. Prospects for a large South American soybean crop and ideas that export demand will soon shift to their new-crop supplies will remain underlying bearish factors. However, losses will be limited by the still strong export demand for U.S. soybeans as China bought 100,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans on Tuesday.
Wheat futures are called 6 to 7 cents lower. Overnight trade at 6:30 am CST was 7 1/4 to 7 1/2 cents lower at the CBOT, 6 to 6 1/2 cents lower at the KCBT and 4 3/4 to 6 cents lower at the MGE. The strong rally in the dollar overnight and the large U.S. and world wheat stocks will pressure prices. Export demand remains very slow and shipments continue to fall below the pace to reach USDA’s recently lowered export forecast. The CBOT and KCBT have dipped below psychological support at $5, which could increase selling pressure.
Cattle futures are called steady to higher. Decent packer margins and the firm tone in the beef market should help support cash trade this week. Choice beef prices were up 84 cents on Tuesday. However, gains could be limited by concern that beef prices may soon be topping as packers increase slaughter and as retailers get restocked following the holidays.
Lean hog futures are called steady to higher. Pork cutouts continue to move higher, gaining 48 cents on Tuesday. Strong packer margins are encouraging slaughter and should help hold up the cash market. However, with futures nearly technically overbought levels, profit-taking could limit gains or push prices lower today."
I have a question for those that didn't get winter wheat planted or might know more about them... What were the plans on these acres??? wheat then double crop beans or what? Will they just plant one crop of beans now?? I know everyone might be expecting equal number of corn or bean acres for every acre of wheat lost. That could very well not be the case. If they were double crop acres that first crop acres would just be lost. The single crop might yeild more however. USDA counts double crop acres twice and now they can only count them once. Total crop acres should be less becuase of this reason. What percentage of drop in wheat acres was DC and what is most likely to be planted on those acres is what i would like to know???