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Thread: Marketing 2017

  1. #2381
    Senior Member steffy is on a distinguished road
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    I don't trade mpls wheat either Tas.we could both be right on the cattle,funds leaving as they don't want to trade light holiday markets so down side could be worse than it should be.but bullish fundamentals should rule the day eventually,packers seem to be short bot,feedlots are current,wts. are not rising as some have been predicting,packer margins still very good,packers selling beef for delivery 3 weeks out and more so will need to keep killing cattle to fill those orders.exports well above last year so demand seems alive and well.and stock market making new highs won't hurt demand.but if funds decide to leave enmass there in not enuf liquidity to keep futures from taking a hit.

  2. #2382
    Senior Member Tas is on a distinguished road
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    Beans gonna stick with my same old same old of traders say, 'lets go test $10" In a nut shell,,, we test $10 and Brazil sells the rally.
    Heard all the way down on farm market radio of bullish news of a dry Argentina tho nothing about ideal conditions in most Brazil.

    Corn still in a well defined range, very poor export inspections this morning was probably to blame for today loss's
    A huge (Texas Style) amount of money has left/exited the corn market both long and shorts
    There were alot of bets made in the Dec contract, to me kinda seems like many traders have called it a year and will set on the side lines til 2018

    Wheat, spring wheat's doing OK winters on the defensive .

    Cattle it be clean up in aisle 5 behind the barn,,, as the funds boys have blown out the back wall of the barn going "We're Leaving"
    Other then that really no more needs to be said as I've covered it prior. Thanks C & C, its been a fun ride da bear lower.
    I have my take profits target just don't know if I can hang on that long.....I mite adjust that target by what slaughter weights do in the next week or 2

  3. #2383
    Senior Member Tas is on a distinguished road
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    SAO PAULO (Reuters) - The Brazilian unit of Cargill Inc [CARG.UL] is in talks to form a consortium to bid for a $4.3 billion railway project that would unite grain-growing regions in central Brazil with northern ports, the business head said on Monday.

    Cargill’s prospective partners to bid for the Ferrogrão railway project include rival grain traders Archer Daniels Midland Co, Bunge Ltd, and Brazil’s Amaggi, said Luiz Pretti, president of Cargill in Brazil, on the sidelines of an American Chambers of Commerce event in São Paulo.

    ADM, Bunge and Amaggi did not immediately reply to requests for comment.

    Running about 1,100 kilometers (684 miles), the Ferrogrão railway would link grain-producing regions to the river port of Miritituba, helping farmers avoid moving produce by truck on neglected roads.

    It would also likely reduce truck traffic along the BR-163 highway, accessed by farmers to ship products through the north, and would be more efficient for grains exporters than using the ports of Santos and Paranaguá in the south.

    The government plans to issue a 65-year operating license for Ferrogrão, a system that will have the capacity to move 42 million tonnes of grains annually.

    The government’s modeling for the project has not yet been finalized.

    There are other groups interested in building and operating Ferrogrão. A government official told Reuters in October that a group of state-owned Chinese firms is planning to form a consortium to bid for the license.

    The commodities trader, which has gross sales of 36 billion reais ($11 billion) a year in Brazil, has invested $1.2 billion in the country over the past six years, the executive said.

    Next year, Cargill plans a 500 million reais ($153 million) investment in Brazil, with 70 percent going to infrastructure projects, Pretti said.
    ---------------------------------------------------
    This is what we face as American producers going forward.
    Yes China's soy protein needs are increasing each and every year, this will not stop any time some.
    Its not just China, other pacific rim country's want more meat protein aka more soy protein.
    Global growth in soybeans will not slow, I could probably go so far as to say in my life time pretty easy.
    The trouble is here we're competing with Brazil/Argentina for these increases in demand.
    The past 5-6 years Brazil has seen alot of changes not just in production but in the shipping infrastructure.
    5-6 years dates back to near $18 beanies, $18 beans makes for a dam big planting carrot.
    Again I'll use wheat,,,,, that $15-20 wheat (shhhhh those RMA prices) look where its gotten us ?????
    Same deal as where it took our forefathers back in the days of $6.00 wheat look where it got them ?????

  4. #2384
    Senior Member steffy is on a distinguished road
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    beans blew thru resistance areas fairly easy this AM on arg weather concerns,rains were disappointing and forcast look poor,arg exports 1/2 of the worlds meal and bean oil,meal is leading the charge which is positive.10.20 is next target then 10.40 and 10.60.beans are not setting back much from the highs which is bullish
    beef cutouts sharply higher yesterday,which should add some stability back in soon.packers need to buy plenty of cattle the next 2 weeks to fill beef orders and before holidays cut kill days don't know if they'll be able to buy cash cattle much lower or not,weak futures will give them leverage,but feedlots are current and may resist lower bids.

  5. #2385
    Senior Member Tas is on a distinguished road
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    Its welcome to the Santa weather rally #2017 via Argentina, its the buzz so I guess I better buy more bean !!!
    J/K already long re-owning cash sold, long prior hedged beans via $10 Jan calls.
    Need to keep in mind Argentina is still planting those beans, very early in the game, tho its the buzz word buzz in Chicago at the DTN Ag Summit.
    Meal is by far the clear leader,,, meal/oil spreads going ballistic.

    So do you, on your farm want to manage your price risks growing beans ?
    Or do you wanna get caught up in all the weather hype ?
    Remember how that weather hype worked out last summer , the summer before that,,, and the summer before that ?
    Remember those trying to "talk the markets higher" talk THEIR position being long corn/beans last summer ? How did that work out ?
    This is not being a smart donkey, just asked some reminder questions.
    Current front months corn/bean ratio is 2.98 as I type,,, "What's in your wallet" TV commercial or in this case what are you thinking of planting right now ? ? ?

    Cattle, no change full full-dis-closer I'm short 2 LEF - Fed fats. NOT pulling my own tail its being HONEST.
    Been a firm cattle bear and with today's show list,,,,,,,,,,,, VERY firm.
    Just a feeling dem dere weights are gonna start climbing..................
    They just feel ugly, they look ugly to my eyes with some dam good facts to back me up.

  6. #2386
    Senior Member steffy is on a distinguished road
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    fyi tas cattle have a seasonal that breaks into dec 10 then rally into exp (dec contract).cutouts sharply higher again yesterday,but cattle lack liquidity to handle funds puking.old trader told be to never gt out of a winner ,let the market take you out.keep a trailing stop to preserve profits.keep tightening the stop

  7. #2387
    Senior Member Tas is on a distinguished road
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    Cattle ugly, with feeders leading the charge this after a hangmen's noose pattern gaping lower and breaking the "neck line"
    I'm gonna let your old traders saying take me out Steffy, lower my stop some.
    Not too soft/close, not too hard/wide justttttttttttttt right from the 3 little BEARS book.
    I tossed the seasonal's and fundamentals totally out the window last week, tho cash weak and cut-out very weak.

    Beans, its kinda fun watching the Nat bulls come out of the work-wood AGAIN with that big chip on their shoulder.
    I brought up "Cookie Time" or "Target Order Cookies" Maize posted a plate of !!!!! I know at least some target orders got filled on this one.
    This psychical movement of cash beans is bearish,,,,, the thing is it was NOT bullish at any point in time this week*****
    There was a few specify things that have went on this week in beans.
    Nov 2015 an Nov 2016 the HFT traders had there fun, getting all bull up of HFT actions I've learned is UN-wise.
    Funny thing is this move was just a few day later this year.

    Corn well, its kinda the new wheaties

    Wheats problem and this from Dennis Gartman's talk this morning problems
    # 1 The US $$$ IMO
    # 2 Russia
    # 3 is mine, as of this morning is Canada as their wheat crop seemed to get bigger.
    All 3 Wheaties made new closing lows for this move, gonna plant a bunch of spring wheat this spring ? Don't choke of the carrot.
    The whole US $$$ deal started July 14th 2014 off techy charty action.

  8. #2388
    Senior Member Tas is on a distinguished road
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    OK guys most of you probably know I've been there done that with wife deal twice.
    The part I didn't tell you is,,,,, oh an its tough to say,,,,, I lost my first wife to Margin Calls.

  9. #2389
    Senior Member Tas is on a distinguished road
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    Jan beanies closed last Friday @ 9.94, currently 9.95 my guess we close the week lower with exports being the lead news this morning.
    The carry to March is .12, full commercial carry is .096 this will be important going into FND next year.
    So a major question for these diehard bulls is if beans were so bullish this week, why in God green earth is Mr Market *STILL* paying you .12 to store them to March ???
    I've asked this question of dem young bulls a few times the last months and they can not seem to answer.
    I would just save this post (make sure you file it for quick reference) for like 20 years down the road ! ! ! ! !

    This morning off to Des Moines, then east to Lasalle street Chicago
    Last edited by Tas; 12-07-2017 at 08:14 AM.

  10. #2390
    Senior Member steffy is on a distinguished road
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    long range forcast puts alittle more rain in argie forcast,that and beans on china exchange making 19 month lows has recent bean bulls taking profits,but if rains fail to happen or forcast change buls will be back in charge.don't know if new highs possible in dec with lite volume.export sale and shipments very large today.my guess just profit taking,backing and filling before next leg up in beans and meal.

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