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  1. #1
    Senior Member 48 is on a distinguished road
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    Lackluster Spring Flush

    AW's home page has an article on this on the home page:

    http://www.agweb.com/article/average_milk_output_not_good_enough_NAA_Fran_Howar d/

    Whaddayathunk?????????????/

    I did not put that space in Howard's name....soooo...there's no way for me to correct it. Damn AW server.
    Last edited by 48; 06-20-2014 at 11:43 AM.

  2. #2
    Senior Member dairydecider is on a distinguished road
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    I'm not sure what Ledman means when she says that high US prices will cramp export demand. CME=GDT pricing for NDM/SMP. Butter is off the charts because supply is so short. Cheese is below domestic pricing but there are two reasons for that, Fonterra doesn't make good cheese (nor makes a lot of it) and cheese exports while building in volume is not the main mover of export product. But aside from that, I've known since Feb that the flush was short. Now that the flush is over then the drive-by media can state the obvious. I expect cheese pricing to set new highs before the next equinox.

  3. #3
    Senior Member 48 is on a distinguished road
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    DD: Thanx. What do you attribute the short flush to?

  4. #4
    Senior Member dairyfarmmn is on a distinguished road
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    48: I TOLD you exactly why the spring flush would be not very big last AUGUST!!!! But all you did was post how milk was going to $15 because corn was going to $4. Had you actually read and understood what I was telling you back then, you would already know what us dairy farmers already know..... But hey, I'm just a arrogant, ****y pretend dairy farmer. And as it shapes up now, next's spring flush will be not be very big either.


    BTW, I'm flip flopping on E. I think E has been something of a blessing. Dairy farmers have changed how they feed cows because of it. And those changes have led to higher prices.

    BTW 2X, still looking for that $15 milk.

  5. #5
    Senior Member RON11 is on a distinguished road
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    Quote Originally Posted by dairyfarmmn View Post
    48: I TOLD you exactly why the spring flush would be not very big last AUGUST!!!! But all you did was post how milk was going to $15 because corn was going to $4. Had you actually read and understood what I was telling you back then, you would already know what us dairy farmers already know..... But hey, I'm just a arrogant, ****y pretend dairy farmer. And as it shapes up now, next's spring flush will be not be very big either.


    BTW, I'm flip flopping on E. I think E has been something of a blessing. Dairy farmers have changed how they feed cows because of it. And those changes have led to higher prices.

    BTW 2X, still looking for that $15 milk.
    I'm worried I might end up feeling foolish but why did you figure the spring flush wouldn't be great. And what is E.

  6. #6
    Senior Member dairydecider is on a distinguished road
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    Quote Originally Posted by 48 View Post
    DD: Thanx. What do you attribute the short flush to?
    Go to the milk price thread, plenty of discussion there. Several reasons, long and cold midwest winter, lack of forage supplies in midwest and west, high protein prices everywhere, and most importantly so many dairy heifers have been slaughtered the past 2 years that dairy is short replacements (-20% in May alone). Effects of Cali. drought are just starting to show up. Plus demand for everything except domestic NDM is +3-10%.

  7. #7
    Senior Member 48 is on a distinguished road
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    Quote Originally Posted by RON11 View Post
    I'm worried I might end up feeling foolish but why did you figure the spring flush wouldn't be great. And what is E.
    Ron: E is ethanol. After all the rant, DF doesn't have a clue why the spring flush was lack luster.

  8. #8
    Senior Member 48 is on a distinguished road
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    Here's two URL's from U of WI:

    http://future.aae.wisc.edu/data/monthly_values/by_area/98?area=US

    http://future.aae.wisc.edu/data/monthly_values/by_area/98?area=US

    Hummm...those are identical. One is 2013 and the other is supposed to be 2014. Just go there and click around.

    Quite frankly...I don't see a lackluster spring flush.

  9. #9
    Senior Member dennis1 is on a distinguished road
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    Quote Originally Posted by 48 View Post
    Ron: E is ethanol. After all the rant, DF doesn't have a clue why the spring flush was lack luster.
    Well damn, df just told you so and you still didn't hear/read it!

  10. #10
    Senior Member dairyfarmmn is on a distinguished road
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    2013 spring flush wasn't really a flush either. The 2012 CS didn't have any milk in it. 2013 CS didn't have any milk in it. And oats, oats/peas, or tricale don't have much milk in them either . Feed quality has not improved much in MN/Wi this year either. I flat out told you last August 48, that the milk wasn't going to be there this year. Yet you continued to rant on how $15 milk was coming cause corn was going to have a $4 in front of it .... "Albeit with a 6 month lag" is what you added. You completely failed to understand the feed dynamics caused by last spring/summer weather.

    BTW, why do you believe the milk numbers when you say the crop numbers are wrong?


    Oh and I think Ron knows who is ranting.

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