07-04-2014 06:24 AM #31
- Join Date
- Aug 2010
getting a child into farming is child abuse, getting one s self into farming, is ??????
In a recognition of world sense, we are in a age of the land to raise food around the world is being Hoarded up by the rich, a act of war in the past was taking over other nations land to take away the nations, food supply.
IN the 1800's,. Briatian is noted by laws of property to take over the land of India, Africa, ect. ect. , and by the laws of property the once farmers of the land were allowed to continue to farm the land, but they were surfs to the new laws of property owners, that took the grain away and by which left the people of places like Africa and India to strave to death..
today, its all a repeat of the same.. and if the people stand against the fruits of labor being stolen from them, today, they will be labled, terrorists..
the people of AFrica, in the 1880's stood against their land being stolen from them, and the British locked them up in concentration camps, starving a quarter of million women and manly children to death... and today, the atrocity rages on in new lands, thanks to the ignorance of those that claim to be leaders, look on and do, nothing....go mr Obama. Ignore the reality of what history has showen to be morally wrong, we alow to happen today...
those that fail to know history, are doomed to repeat history..
07-04-2014 08:00 AM #32
- Join Date
- Nov 2007
As the massive numbers of the current farm operators retire- Please describe the type of future operations that you feel will see the most growth, be the most profitable, will farm most of the acres, and will have the greatest future in crop production. Professors and experts have been doin' their own prognosticatin' for years.
Over the years, I have been exposed to many well thought out presentations from many who suggested that the field operations piece of commodity crop production would go through a rapid "industrialization" phase= much larger scale, less operators, more employees, less generalists that are necessary in small operations, more specialists that are necessary in larger businesses(finance, agronomy, business mgmt, crop merchandizing/contracting/marketing, mechanics). I have also heard it suggested that this new phase in crop production will be more like the "WalMartization" of agriculture with many low paying jobs for miscellaneous farm hands and many higher paying jobs where skills are needed. It seems many of these lofty thinkers are describing companies that look more like the structure that our ag suppliers for crop protection products use and less like todays multiple operator fewer employee farms.
Each of the predictions above leave plenty of room for a young man with desire and a background in finance. Each of the predictions also would suggest that small operations will have a much smaller role as this generation retires.
I was hearing these predictions of the future of crop production in the 1990s in various forms. So far- The above predictions when it comes to commodity crop production have been most often wrong in this area. Those who used the bigger is most often better model to expand have most often ended up eventually sharing their losses with various creditors. Those landowners with desirable tracts of farmland for rent who seemed to only consider the "guaranteed" cash rent offered as they chose their next tenant very often had to eventually find a new tenant and at times didn't get all of the promised rent in that last year. Many operators who used the above expansion model- though they should have had an advantage in the combination of machine, labor, and management costs per acre- seemed to lose more than they gained through a combination of higher land costs per acre, loss in yield through lack of timeliness(more days planting/crappy conditions while planting/late combining/ etc), and higher interest costs per acre as they financed their growth with credit.
As the big wave of ag operators over 50 retires taking their capital with them to distribute to heirs after their death, it is anybody's guess as to what structure will replace the vast majority of these operators. Larger multi employee "land operating companies" will have more options to rent farmland and less competiton from well capitalized single family operators. These larger multi man companies will have to acknowledge and evaluate both costs and risks better than many of those type of operations of my generation did or very many will continue to fail financially.
We may one day know that the age of modest sized single family grain operations has come to a virtual end with only niche operations, operations with much non farm income, and/or operations with so much capital built in the past that low ROA or ROE doesn't keep the operator from operating. I am not entirely convinced of the above due to the spotted history of the current generation of land operating companies.
Due to the fact that many intelligent/ well informed / well studied capitalists do not like the volatility of gross revenue (=weather and market risks)- future farm programs combined with future federal policies dealing with crop insurance will have a lot of impact on the most prevalent structure of commodity crop production in our future here in the USA.
For the poster in the thread opener- If your goal is to build wealth in the short run while you learn a lot that allows you to consider a role in farm operations in the long run, dlocdloc's (along with many others) suggestions have some merit for your consideration.
If your goal is instead a lifestyle decision in that you want to be self employed ASAP, take more risks, and learn much hands on- there are other good suggestions for you.
If ag production was simply looked at like a game of monopoly-
Some of us are wired in a way that suggests
+ We want to play this game for a lifetime,
+ We often want to play the game mostly our own way (self employed- and you don't have to own and have hotels on Boardwalk and Parkplace to feel satisfied).
+ We want to accomplishing some lifetime goals that don't have much to do with capital as long as we can care for ourselves and ours while staying in the game.
+ The profits earned and retained capital is just a way to evaluate our stayin' power and how we are doin'.
+ We really don't much care who hits free parking or started with a larger bankroll as long as we are in the game and can keep playing. We know that none of us will have a hearse pullin' a UHaul to the grave.
+ The pile of properties and money in the hands of other players is simply a way to learn and is not a measure of our own worth relative to other players.
Much to the dismay of many capitalists who want the gravy from crop production yet are troubled by the associated risks- The current generation of crop farm operators has very many that fit most of the description above. Our retained capital, our willingness/capacity to accept risk, our work ethic, our fierce independence, our stubbornness, how cheaply we work on the down side of any cycle, our broad range of accepted duties as part of our job, and our staying power has been in the way of those who wanted a larger cut of the profits sent to their desk.
Maybe when the over 50 generation retires- much larger land operation companies get a a larger piece of the pie with the projected great consolidation of crop operations. Their interests will of course often be opposite those of large entities whose goal is maximizing profits from land ownership.
Maybe the not too distant result is that we will end up with about as many single family farm operations with modest amounts of hired labor as we ended up with mom and pop retail stores, mom and pop gas stations, modest sized hog operations, etc.
Maybe. Only time will tell.
The above makes one rethink the value of all of the field and financial data of so many of todays farm operations being "on the cloud"-------- don't it??????????????????
Last edited by jabber1; 07-05-2014 at 12:44 PM."Ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country." John F Kennedy
07-04-2014 10:27 PM #33
- Join Date
- Aug 2010
Why?. that is the question.
go out and load up some chemical, fertilizer, pesticide, blow out a tire, have an accident, make a spill, and your a__ is sued into obliviation by a government Agent making a name for himself and your finished, asking yourself, WHY?
getting a child into farming is child abuse, getting yourself into farming is mere ignorance and gluttoning for punishment, self inflicted.
07-05-2014 01:06 AM #34
07-08-2014 06:16 AM #35
- Join Date
- Aug 2010
Agweb is for the rich and haughty, is not what you want to hear greg, but its what you sell.
2.5 cent corn, might make you richer and more haughty, but it sends a huge long term reality to the fact of getting a next generation into agriculture, is child abuse.
Its a good history leason to note in 1927 grain prices in the United States skyrocketed as Europe was in a huge issue to the endresult of the first world war, needing food, that Germany was to now pay for and feed Europe with the war reperations that was imposed on Germany.. and in 1927 many a new farm home was built in the US by harvest of single wheat crop, one years work built a new house... wheat prices would have to be, $35 per bushel to equal 1927's equivilant...
and after Europe was back on its feet to feed itself, the price of grain plumented, and the great depression was on... and its any diferent today with the recent past of 7 dollar corn now plummeting to $2 corn?
This is a worst case senerio, and yes, it will make a few kings, lucky you, and the rest of mere slaves....
07-08-2014 02:54 PM #36
- Join Date
- Aug 2010
Great depression my azz alosivn, you're as looney as ever. You might be interested to know that people worked for us in the last great depression. If another depression pops up there will be NO WORK on grain farms for the simple fact we can do the work of thousands with the equipment we have today. As long as there is oil to run the machines then I will still be KING and you will still be a camel humper. If oil does not exist then we will plant our gardens and eat just the same. You will still be humping camels and eating sand.
I read the other day the very rich Kings and Queens of China are leaving their beloved country and coming to the USA to become citizens and enjoy the wonderful food and environment we have in our great country. Looks like the debt picture and looming depression might just be diverted. Who would have thought? Maybe we all might become slaves to the incoming Chinese rich and haughty, but I doubt we will ever be slaves to camel humpers. I wouldn't even have a camel humper for a slave. The only thing a camel humper is good for is ..................well, I can't think of anything they're good for. Good for nothing nobodies, much like yourselves.