Someone mentioned stating this year off with a new web page so here it is.
I just can't get a handle on 2014. Since the "big" report on Jan 10 grains have been going in odd directions. Limit up on Friday for corn and today lackluster enthusiasm, but beans higher yet. With all the hype over South Americas big crop, China and the DDG's, what is going on with these markets. Is the demand that strong to take out this "big" 2013 crop? I'm not sure of anything at this point. Even the experts missed this one. They're all digesting the report numbers...what the ....?
I'm looking for a rally to get the remainder of my oc corn sold. I think $4.75 could happen but I have nothing to base it on. I'm just pulling rabbits out of the hat. Like the report on Friday.
Corn was NOT limit up Friday, far from it. I take it that even though the trade was leaning heavy the wrong way, in the end what it comes down to is we have enough corn. We are likely to settle in a trading range until possible weather during the growing season changes that. 4.10-4.60 is my guess.
Sorry about that IN555. I guess corn only went up $.20. I was thinking limit up for some reason. I thinks it's the vicodin talking.
I think you have a good guess with 4.10 and 4.60, but that's just my point..it's a guess. I got this guy calling me telling me corn will have a 5 in front of it and beans are worth holding for now. I've sold 15% of nc corn and 40% of nc beans. It's a start, but with any hickups this spring or summer what will we be looking at? I may have wished I hadn't sold a thing.
thats what i said in the other thread 555...i think this report defined the bottom of a trading range over the next 6-12 months barring an unforseen event like weather or something else. im curious where the top of the range will come in but you might be close with that 4.60...my GUESS is the top will be more in that 4.80 to 5 range.
as for 2014 marketing i have 50% of my beans on hta's just shy of $12 and 0% corn done. ive made the decision to pull in my horns and go the less costly route this year so thats why i have so many beans fc. i think i am done with any further sales until we see the weather shake out this summer...if i did anything it would be to get a small portion of corn done if we can get z14 back above $5 but otherwise i feel comfortable where im at.
S American weather will take on more importance in corn.arg is getting dry in their corn areas.most don't think brazil will plant near as much 2nd crop corn and most don't think yields will be as high as the last two years as they had abnormally good weather.2nd crop corn is riskier to plant as that is normally their dry time of year.If that does indeed come to pass,that will mean less completion which should mean more export sales for US later in the year.But a big ole griz is hard to kill and the bears are already discounting UDSA #'s
The market just doesn't seem to care the numbers, the point is we have plenty of corn. I just leaked a little more OC that I had hedged several times. Looking for dec14 to get back up to 4.65 and I will be rehedging again. Long story short no excitement means no sustainable rally.
Here is an excerpt from an e-mail alert I got from CIS today:
"Compensating for Stocks Errors..."
"This year, the USDA was short a record 364 million bushels from analysts estimates. Based on past experience, it is highly likely they will find substantially more stocks than expected in the March and/or June reports."
First off fund re-balancing period seems to be MUCH more of the "buzz" word the last month or so then normal. This should have supported the corn market......... Its been said the funds need to by 100k give or take of corn.
This 5 day re-balancing period ended today. What happened ?
Last Tuesday ZCH closed at 4.26 OI was at 642k
Today-------------------------- 4.31 Yesterday OI was 646k, we still have today's numbers to add to that 646k but price really did not do Jack EVEN with the report...................
Now MOST of that 100k of buying should have been focused in ZCH cause that's where to action and open interest is.
Remember the old commercial "Where's the BEEF"
SO,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, "Where the BUYING" (I really wanna add some choice words here)
Was the general public feed a "line" the size of Texas,,, about the funds re-balancing/buying ?
Price and the numbers say we were guys and gals.............
Here a possibility,,,,,,,,,,,,,do they still need to buy ?
Just did not want to do it in the "official" period ?
If you wanna buy,you wanna buy at the lowest price right....
Are they just sitting back and gonna let the market re-test the lows THEN BUY ?
Start buying when we LEAST expect it,makes prefect sense to me.........................
Now "most" traders/market experts would not buy my thoughts just above,but then again "most" thought the report would be bearish too.
argintina's corn crop look's to have been hurt by hot dry weather during pollination,many thinking 18-20 mmt,usda had them at 25mmt fri.endusers bot a fair amt of corn on the rally,so won't need to chase the market.corn probably just sits here and spins it's wheels between 4.2- 4.40.only hope the corn market has is if funds decide to shortcover a they get bored watching corn go nowhere fast.farmers will most likely be willin sellers on rallies keeping a lid on the market