I ran across this little article this morning Zero Hedge. I posted the lead in to the article, but it is long so I have also posted the Web page where it can be pulled up. It looks like that perhaps by 2020 China may be running a deficit instead of a surplus due to their demand for agricultural commodities to meet the growing demands from their population. John
Goodbye Petrodollar, Hello Agri-Dollar?
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/24/2012 09:50 -0500
When it comes to firmly established, currency-for-commodity, self reinforcing systems in the past century of human history, nothing comes close to the petrodollar: it is safe to say that few things have shaped the face of the modern world and defined the reserve currency as much as the $2.3 trillion/year energy exports denominated exclusively in US dollars (although recent confirmations of previously inconceivable exclusions such as Turkey's oil-for-gold trade with Iran are increasingly putting the petrodollar status quo under the microscope).
But that is the past, and with rapid changes in modern technology and extraction efficiency, leading to such offshoots are renewable and shale, the days of the petrodollar "as defined" may be over.
So what new trade regime may be the dominant one for the next several decades? According to some, for now mostly overheard whispering in the hallways, the primary commodity imbalance that will shape the face of global trade in the coming years is not that of energy, but that of food, driven by constantly rising food prices due to a fragmented supply-side unable to catch up with increasing demand, one in which China will play a dominant role but not due to its commodity extraction and/or processing supremacy, but the contrary: due to its soaring deficit for agricultural products, and in which such legacy trade deficit culprits as the US will suddenly enjoy a huge advantage in both trade and geopolitical terms.
John, thanks for that post, I kind of figured there would be much much larger things looming for farming down the road when I listened to a very astute English investor John Slater, which now heads the now public farmland acquisition company Agrifirma, which has been accumulating huge tracts of farmland the past three/four years in SA. stating that the trend in pricing of global arable farmland will go through the stratosphere when the huge giant to the West demands production of which the world will inevitably become acutely short of.
I agreed with him then and still do even more so now. I've heard figures of grain importation by the year 2020 of the Chinese will absolutely mind boggle anyone, they will consume and demand every kernel of corn America can produce, so, I guess our biogenetic engineering had better steadfastly make greater improvements in yield production to keep that giant at bay from starvation.
Now, was it not Jim Rogers that said three years ago that the Wall St. Lamborgini's will be in farmers driveways in the not too distant future???????????? lol hope he's spot on. I'll take the Ferrari Testerosa though....lol
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