Industrial espionage and WTI crude oil

[Ghost Ryder]

Keep up the good fight OBG. When people let their emotions cloud their analysis, markets are hard to comprehend. Throw in some conspiracy theories and it's hopeless.

I've let my emotions cloud my judgement about ten times since I got up this AM.

It really looks like techno breakthroughs are going to prevent the hard crash I was so spooked of a few years ago and that's a relief. We might bump along the present oil flow plateau for a good while?

One place folks let emotions get in the way of reason was with the whole shale gas madness. There is so much blame for that fraud, but for a moment I'll pick on T. Boone Pickens. That dude is a salesman. He, more than anyone, is responsible for shutting down the US horse slaughter plants. The unintended consequence was the horrible treatment of aged horses. My point is that he cannot control emotions.

I watched from afar as Matt Simmons drank himself to death. If you didn't talk to him by 9 AM, there was no point. He got too attached to his idea and couldn't deal with the spotlight when it cast the wrong shadow. I'm gonna try to not be that guy.

I'm confident that without even a cold winter we will see Natural Gas go premium to Crude on a BTU basis a year from now. Word is spreading that the shale wells are going dead 90% faster than originally thought. Thought by whom? The experts? They couldn't have been that dumb. Investors? They were fools for listening to salesman.

Ag is gonna be differant in a year for this reason. My guess is that urea goes from $530/ton to $1,500/ton If I'm correct that electricity gets the first NG produced while industry gets what's left. I believe that because coal permits are too slow to respond in time, and people will come before industry.

Urea is fungible, but the rest of the world already pays $15 for NG and the USA produces enough ammonia to make a huge differance once it's lost. We blow past $15 for the simple fact we will need LNG (which is fungible) to fill our shortfall. That LNG won't show up on our shores without a winning bid.

Keep in mind my record for markets is dismal. I thought we'd have $25 or more beans by March or so and that's looking silly.

What I like about NG is that everybody has this crazy BAU opinion about it and it's ALL based on emotion. Time will tell.

[gmart]

well seasonally unleaded gas breaks into jan. crude oil looks likes its done much of what it has. im always a buyer of rbob around first of year.

[48]

GB: You said:

"We need pipelines to get the crude to refineries in NJ not into storage in OK."

WRONG!!!!! We need to get Canadian tar sand oil via Keystone Pipeline to Cushing Pipeline terminals to Gulf Coast refineries. There are already pipelines in the Gulf to transport GASOLINE to NJ. Enterprise has been reversing the flow from Cushing to the Gulf for some time.

[48]

OBG: Where you have been wrong on shale gas...with the exception of Marcellus...is that Eagle Ford is high in NGL's which are priced closer to crude oil...not natty. They don't give a damn about the NG. The NGL's are hugely profitable. You have just been flat wrong on shale oil and the Bakken which is a shame cuz it's right in your back yard. You could have been a multi-millionaire several times over with the juniors on the Bakken, but you believed your own BS that anything to do with shale is a fraud. Shale oil reserves are the next Saudi Arabia.

CAT is going all in on LNG on their engines and equipment. Google oilprice.com. You can get their e-mail for free.

[Ghost Ryder]

OBG: Where you have been wrong on shale gas...with the exception of Marcellus...is that Eagle Ford is high in NGL's which are priced closer to crude oil...not natty. They don't give a damn about the NG. The NGL's are hugely profitable. You have just been flat wrong on shale oil and the Bakken which is a shame cuz it's right in your back yard. You could have been a multi-millionaire several times over with the juniors on the Bakken, but you believed your own BS that anything to do with shale is a fraud. Shale oil reserves are the next Saudi Arabia.

CAT is going all in on LNG on their engines and equipment. Google oilprice.com. You can get their e-mail for free.

NG from shale oils like Eagle Ford or the Bakken and others = 9% of total USA NG production.

NG from oil production = 3% of total USA NG production.

That's 12% of USA NG production with adequate liquid sales to create a profit.

88% of all USA NG production is dry gas. Of this, about 60% comes from places like the Marcellus etc. those wells are at the most 5 years old and the early ones are dying 90% faster than the investors told they were. A lot of people need to go to jail because even I knew their projections were obvious fantasy.

CAT is making a gigantic mistake because shale gas is over.

[Ghost Ryder]

Here is a PRIME EXAMPLE of the shameless promotion of shale gas by folks who discouraged due diligence;


"Another major myth about shale gas is that the depletion rate on these wells is much higher and quicker than conventional oil and gas wells.

To be honest there aren’t enough hard statistics from the Marcellus/Utica to make a concrete judgment — and that’s why it’s important to nip this myth in the bud.

Yes, depletion rates — the yearly decline of well production that can determine the life of a well — could be lower than conventional or other U.S. shale plays. But the truth of the matter is that we don’t know."

"That's why it's important to nip this myth in the bud".

What sort of investment advice is that? The author of this piece of propaganda written in 2010 didn't want anybody questioning the rosy pie-in-the-sky estimates of well life. Now that the wells are failing 90% faster than he said the author is onto the next bubble.

When faced with a different opinion on well life 4 years ago the shale gas promoters responded with character assassination. What does that tell you?

The correction will be equal and opposite of the mal-investment, and as the drill rig count illustrates will shatter all records.