March 30 USDA Reports

[MOMOSARIC]

gmart. .. "anytime you have had the chance to get corn bought below 5 last few years has been a good idea..."

Yes , but look last 10 years?

[JeremeyFrost]

icf, i already have some new crop beans priced. not sure the percentage yet becuase i am not sure if i am going to plant some corn on corn or go back to beans on one chunk by my house. want to get the field that is split up weird back into 2 peices and the corn on corn would be on the best dirt this year. however beans seem to make more sense right now. so basically i am 20-30 sold right now. but would be less if it goes to beans. havent sold any new crop corn yet. too cheap for what is coming down the line for prices i think. i think we are at the lowest point new crop corn will be over the next year. i am actually leaning towards buying corn futures on the acres i am thinking about switching and planting beans instead. pure speculation though.

it really depends on price for next years sales. i never like to get over 50% sold ahead but honestly if beans get towards 16 i wouldnt be afaid to sell 45 bpa. i think old crop corn could still get to 7.50 just based on technicals once it trades through 6.75. i am going to continue with my plan of selling every 10 cents above 6.70 futures. i think new crop corn has unrealistic bearishness worked into it. i told my dad yesterday he needs to book all next years corn for feed. i said i think its going to rally 50-70 cents from here minimum. then i said when i gets up there to buy puts to protect the value. i said only way new crop corn is going to get cheaper than it currently is if yeild is above 165. i think yeild will be closer to 156-159. south of 160 anyways. i told him that if corn breaks back down to current levels this fall to just bank the profits on puts and go back to being fully hedged or long. just an idea i threw at him. anytime you have had the chance to get corn bought below 5 last few years has been a good idea.

personally i would think that if the 45 bu acre is 100% of most years.............it would be a little aggressive............even at all time highs

one rule that Kevin Van Trump has in bull markets or markets in general is not to get oversold...........i think that is proper risk management............plus i rememeber trading MPLS spring wheat in 2008............i know a couple guys that nearly went broke getting them selves over sold

it is good to be aggresive and make profitable sales but you have to watch for extremes.............plus keep in mind there really isn't a cap as to how high something can go if it is the last of it.............

[JeremeyFrost]

Jeremey/steffy: You guys say the acreage increases are in marginal states. Weeeelllll...I just look at the 3I's a M and a N, and those are NOT marginal states:

IL -100 (thousand acres)
IN +200
IA +500
MN +600
NE +450
____________
Total: +1,650,000A in HIGH PRODUCING states!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

they are good producing states...........but in the Dakotas alot of the extra corn is coming from non traditional areas..........like western SD that will get 100 bu corn on a good year

also should note that it is getting extremely dry in our area..........with 90 plus temps today

[roger7]

Like I said Jeremy, Evaporation started eight weeks ago when in a normal year you should have been getting some snow for soil recharge. R7

[steffy]

every one here that is saying corn stocks can't be this tight for this reason or that reason has to think back further.USDA may have had it all wrong last year and with the early harvest last fall some of 2011 corn probably was counted as 2010 corn.Hell it may even go back a couple of years when we had all that corn go out of condition.Now with all the early planting this year an early harvest is all but assured again and USDA will get their *** saved again.But you can only rob Peter to pay Paul so long.The point I'm trying to make is corn stocks or production may have been under estimated for several years and the only way The USDA will get saved this year is if we do indeed plant 96 mill ac and it yields 165.But I think there only two chances both will happen ,slim and none.

[roger7]

And Slim just left town. R7

[GREG1]

[QUOTE=paestum1;229702]Greg,everyone trades usda.You can't overestimate how important this report
is for the next few months.Had o/c corn stocks being higher and bean acres also
been at or above expectations,it would have been a hammer blow to the grains.
It provides a supportive sentiment to these markets until yield/ final acres are
resolved and a platform for a weather market should it arise.The world grain
consumers are short,as thats what surplus wheat and fund shorts was allowing
them to be.The game has changed (become alot less comfortable) for consumers
for the next 3 months.LDK.

One stupid report and everyone gits giddy all of sudden.

Paestum, I understand everyone trades USDA and all that is associated with the government. I did not "overestimate" this report, whatever that means. Before the report farmers were uncomfortable, now the consumers of grain are uncomfortable and so it goes untill the next event or whatever someone comes up with. We have all seen markets hammered and we've all seen them rally beyond belief. With that being said the March 30 report of 95.9 right or wrong gives everyone a picture of what will be or not to be. This report is only part of the total puzzle.

I'm sure plenty of information leaks out prior to these reports and I'm sure China is advised one way or the other to position themselves in the market. I have closely watched their antics over the years and make no mistake there is a ...... in the woodpile somewhere. It strikes me funny how they bought beans and corn before the report and I'm sure there were hedges placed to cheapen their purchases. Only to capitalize up and down as their needs are met in relation to these reports. They win. So maybe the consumers are not as uncomfortable for the next 3 months thanks to the slight of hand of the USDA. The farmers will eventually lose and be very uncomfortable in the end thanks be to God for the infamous USDA! The game is rigged from the start. How you deal with it will determine your fate. I think when I started farming there were around 5-6% farmers now maybe we got 1-2%. I wonder how much the USDA had to do with that?

Well I see this prospective plantings report shows 2012 as the largest corn crop planted since WWII. You better know how to market your grain this year cause next year there may be a 3 in front of corn and a 5 in front of beans. I hope not but the game is on and I never feel comfortable when the UDSA show its ugly face and I have been farming 40 years.

[paestum1]

[QUOTE=GREG1;229877][Well I see this prospective plantings report shows 2012 as the largest corn crop planted since WWII.

Greg,demand is slightly different in 2012/13 than the 1940s.Its a nonsense
when these facts are thrown out about biggest crop since .....Its the s&d
that counts, we could also have the biggest corn crop acreage since the 40s and a 153 bu
yield and re-run the whole tight corn stocks thing again next year, only the
fsu states won't have a whole backlog of feed wheat to supply the market
like sep-dec'12.LDK.