Marketing Old Crop and New Crop 2012

[JeremeyFrost]

I was sitting in the tractor and not lookin at the markets, but after today I would raise a big yellow caution flag in beans.....

i think many have been raising caution sign on beans...........just too hard to tell if now is the time to step in front of the freight train that has been straight up

outside key reversal has to be a concern as does the huge length of funds and the fact that we haven't exactly been feeding the bull any new news lately; has been the same thing for some time

[steffy]

Whats the old saying,buy the 3rd day of the break in a market going straight up? Funds are terrible long in beans and they are extremely over bought. So the beans are long over due for a hard correction.Maybe all the bullish news is in the market for now,but with as tight as world stocks are with S.A. crop problems and with what appears to be low acres planted in this country,I'm not ready to call for a top in the bean market when hardly a seed has been put in the ground yet.It's a long growing season and you hardly ever top out in April.
Any word if cold temps over night did any damage to srw wht.?

[greengold]

steffy...ghost said the wheat took a beating in the dakota's the last few nights. i asked him what kind of damage and he threw out 70% of the acres could have as much as 60% hit...also said many spots wouldn't see over 25 b/a. those were his comments made over in the the crop production thread...makes a guy want to get into some july call spreads or something.

[IA CORN FARMER]

One of the ethanol plants that I sell corn too, now has a +12 for the basis level on cash corn. This is pretty unusual for them at the current time period. This has to be telling us something and we haven't really even started planting corn yet. For March/2012,the numbers on one of the many Ethanol Profit models I look at showed the ethanol profit or lose to be -8 cents per gallon. And again, this model has fixed costs at 21 cents per gallon. Obviously 21 cents is much to high if the plant has most of there equipment, buildings, and land paid-off. The March numbers had an average of corn costs at $6.40, ethanol at $2.18, DDG's at $203 per ton, and the total average revenue per gallon was $2.80, this $2.80 per gallon number again was $2.18 for the ethanol and 62 cents for the DDG's. Actually this wasn't to bad. For the plant that has most of there fixed costs paid-off, they would probably have showed an actual profit of 8 cents per gallon. An 8 cent per gallon profit really isn't half bad considering the overall complete big-picture outlook on ethanol. I consider this good news for us.

[steffy]

Ethanol production rose substancially last week and stocks dropped quite a bit.Looks like someone finally discovered it was profitable to blend ethanol with gas or exports picked back up.I would say this is good news.
Greengold I don't know if the wheat here got hurt or not by the 3 nights of freezing temps ,but it sure looks tuff.I think it's more about lack of moisture.But G ryder is right most around here won't make hay let alone grain if it dose'nt get a good soaking asap.I think frosty mentioned alot of producers/customers of his were very concerned.

[IA CORN FARMER]

The problem appears to be wholesale ethanol prices at $2.18 while retail gasoline is $3.85-$4.00.

Ooodles of blending pumps in ethanol refinery country and oodles of flex fuel vehicles would narrow this spread tremendously.

Yes, very interesting on on this spread. Unleaded on the board is $3.35, minus $2.18= $1.17 spread

And my ethanol plant went from a +12 basis to a +14 cents today.

[gmart]

3.74 verse 2.99 for e85. bet e10 is pushing e30 also whether or not it says it on the pump or not.

Found out today that the jokers at usda are borrowing 2012 corn for 2011 carryout already. i guess it was either that or lower demand, usda will never again say we have less than 800 million carryout. could grow 148 bushel next year and still carryout will be 800 million. we will lose all the extra in demand. true or not thats what will be printed. gotta love yet another government "department" with an agenda. i thnk we should get rid of every single government agency that starts with department.

[gmart]

the usda needs to get rid of its "fudge factor" and make ending stocks based on an earlier date. everyone should not have to question there numbers everytime. make ending stocks based on aug 1st to aug 1st. or aug 10 to aug 10th. the cornbelt has shifted some over the last few years and farther south. its time for the usda to get its head out of the sand and get up with the times. i wish cnbc or some major new company could get ahold of this information and run with it and discredit them even more. numbers dont lie, liars lie. the usda is playing russian roulette. they are going to make it worse and its going to blow up in thier face one of these years, should be interesting when that happens. will be just like minn wheat.

[48]

gmart: Good post. They need to calculate Feed Use by GCAU=Grain Consuming Animal Units...which they post in every report BTW. You are correct about Residual. It's just a fudge factor, and they need to get rid of it. Their fiscal years have never made any sense. Wheat is June 1 to June 1. Harvest starts in TX on HRW in May. Here in the northern part of KS...No. 1 wheat state...it is usually done by July 6. Then it moves into NE and SD. As you keep moving north it's HRS which is harvested mainly in Sep. Sooo...if you want to run the fiscal year based on OC and NC, HRW and SRW should be May 1 to May 1, and HRS should be Oct. 1 to Oct. 1. High moisture corn is picked here in late Aug and even earlier in the South. But, I think you could move C and SB to Aug. 1 to Aug 1 and be ok. Back when C was picked in Oct/Nov, Sep 1 to Sep 1 was ok. But, with high moisture corn becoming more and more popular, you are exactly right. The fiscal year should be shifted to Aug 1 to Aug 1 to reflect reality. AND...they need to use 2.84 gal of ethanol/bu instead of 2.7.

[ECI]

Gmart : post #1228 was great ! The USDA has always drew a line in the sand , like 800 , then they start at the top and figure down to make there numbers work out to what they what , lol They won't get rid of the "fudge factor" , that is what makes they number come out . The only way there numbers will not work out is when the bins are empty .
One thing that is also funny to me is that they will use 2012 crop to add to the 2011 crop for carry out for 2013 , To me that does not show the true carry , yes it does show that there will be corn to use but don't paint the true story , to me is like robing Peter to pay Paul .