Guys stick to your guns, it is your survival that is important not puffing up the bottom line of Pioneer, Dekalb, or Monsanto. Corn price $3.80 CBOT today about $3.45, how does that work out on you cashflow right now at 150 bu. yields, with 120#N and 50# of P &K, and then Chemicals, do not forget about the basis you may be locking in at $.50 cents for next year when you contract it at these prices.
Do not think many will cashflow at these prices with these costs. The next six months will decide what we plant, so why buy seed until next spring, there will be plenty of corn and beans around.
This is the historic low period for grain prices, if they stay here at these levels, crop insurance we had last year will be alot lower, lower crop insurance means lower protection for the friendly banker if you borrow money, so let them suffer through the winter, and do not be stampeeded by the usual fear tactics.
You know, the special numbers everyone planted this year, and raised less than expected but still incurred the cost. Go for the base hit, not the home run. John
<blockquote id="quote"><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica" id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote">[i]Originally posted by farmerforever[/i]
NK Late group 3 soybeans $53.50 full price...up $21 a bag from last year!! Discount rate has it at $46.50 per.
Looks like we have an ole fashion game of chicken coming!
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So for the same product you are hauling to the elevator for roughly $8u you are expected to pay the equivalent of $55.80u for in Nov for seed to plant this spring....
I am all for getting paid for technology advancements. However, I think I will stick with my MON short....A 7X margin might be a little excessive and is just asking for pirating to take place!
this is priceless....the new super duty RR2 soybeans are yielding about 18-20 bu less than the old crap. lmao...Not jut an isolated incident here either...some of the BTO's got the new stuff to test drive since they are the only ones the Seed Co's give a crap about.
My neighbor's RR2 Yield less 29.4 bu/acre GRoup IV....My old RR ready Asgrow 70.2...Sure wish I'd gotten my hands on tht good stuff eh?
Get this...they think they are going to sue to get the difference...lmao... ORDER EARLY! They might run out.
Why is it that seed companies will not stick with old favorites? Up until this year the best all time yielder of corn on my farm was Ohlde 300. They did away with it the year after it set my own personal record corn yield, about 12 years ago. Pioneer had a number, 9442 that was a workhorse soybean for our area, and could always be counted on to be the best yielder year in and year out, they did away with it. This year I find my favorite Midland number, 9A442 is going to be no more next year. They always come up with a number to replace your favorite that is going to be better, and for me at least it never is, I always end up searching for 2 or 3 years to find another good number, usually to have it replaced a year or two after I find it.
It's a shell game....they bring new numbers out so fast that you don't have time to evaluate them....and they keep raising the prices each year because they say it is better...but nobody is making comparisons on a 2-3 yr avg anymore...the want it now crowd now includes farmers....is it any wonder we're in the shape we're in with seed prices? Only ourselves to blame.
These seed prices have to be out of kilter with reality. There is no way if these lower market prices hold that a farmer will be able to break even let alone make a profit with the way inputs are. Something has to give; and something will. For those of us old enough to remember there are ways to cut cost and live to farm another day. The whole key is not how many bushels you can raise but how much profit you can make with the least amount of inputs. You can raise non gmo soybeans and keep the seed. You can find much lower price non gmo corn that will stand up and not fall flat on its face. I will not begrudge Monsanto and others for marketing their product but they must remember that they have to sell their product and it must be competitive. They have made great strides but there are still other seed options for farmers to use. No one knows how to "keep their powder dry" like farmers do and we will be looking for bargains and this spring they may be very plentiful.
My triple stacked corn did not out perform the regular RR corn. When I told the rep at Fielders Choice he told me that in order for you to really see a difference it is in stress years, we did not have stress this year. Leaves me wondering what to do about seed for '09, but I do know I am NOT giving $40-$50 a sack for bean seed with beans on their way to $6??
I will confess that I nearly saved some RR seed this year, I know people doing it, I know it is illegal, but where is the "level" playing field here, I pay through the nose while neighbors save seed, I don't want to turn them in, but it still peeves me to no end.