I just could not let sleeping dogs lie! I am sitting here today working on taxes, and Bloomberg announces that Monsanto Stock has plunged because of yield problems with the tripple stacked hybrids. They have to be wrong about that, you mean we need to dig a grave out behind the barn and bury this genetic snafu. I am sure all the Corn College alumni are elbowing their way to the front of the line to get that new number this year.
What a Joke! I guess Kens, W T F hats sirens are going off all over Corn country, after they received the reports back from their boys who went into fields and checked out the problems. Wonderful! Wonderful! Wonderful! I wonder how much of that crap they will be pushing off on farmers this year. Guess they musta bred resistance and growth characteristics out of the tripple dipple hybrids. This is just too much, I wonder what GP and Jabber has to say about this. I know! I know! Now is the time to buy Monsanto stock! What a Crock! John
Shares of Monsanto (NYSE: MON) are off -8% this morning and are now touching three-year lows as the company cut its 2010 forecast and announced a revised pricing strategy on a key product. The company’s stock has been falling sharply since the start of the year for a pair of reasons. First, the company’s focus on tightly controlling how farmers can use its genetically-modified seeds has come under federal scrutiny and created a backlash among farmers. Second, Roundup, the company’s herbicide, has seen steady market share losses from generic products made in China.
This morning’s sell-off focuses on Roundup. The company had been seemingly oblivious to rising generic competition, and failed to reduce pricing fast enough to protect market share. Now, management has decided to cut prices for Roundup, which will lead to sharply lower profits. Fiscal (August) 2010 profits will likely be a little more than half the fiscal 2009 earnings. This is the second time in six weeks that management has sharply lowered its outlook. One of the reasons that shares of Monsanto performed so well from 2005 to 2008 is that forecasts were perpetually raised. Now, management must prove that this new lower forecast represents a baseline that will eventually be raised.
Yet it’s worth noting that Monsanto has become one of the most innovative agricultural firms in the world, regularly developing cutting-edge products that boost farmers’ yields. That has helped farmers make more money while also enabling the company to garner strong prices and firm margins. The company still spends more than $1 billion a year in R&D, and over time, Monsanto is likely to move back on to the cutting edge.
Action to Take --> Even with the sell-off, there is no hurry to buy shares now. Management’s lowered outlook likely represents a bottom, but it will be at least several quarters – if not more – before management can once again talk about sales and profit growth in future years. And shares are simply not cheap enough yet on a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) basis to attract value investors. This is a name to watch, not to buy.
Ia-55 That post is FOS! Bloomberg said nothing about Roundup, it was tripple stacked hybrids from their point of view. I think you will find that Monsanto has been buying up the generic Round up plants, the biggest owned by a fella here in Ioway and located in South America just sold, because of China dumping.
You corn college boys better stick with round up, because the coop will not apply generic brands at the lower price, and the lower rate, because they will only apply Roundup at the "recommended rate". They used the excuse that they cannot warranty their spraying using the rates you want used. That caused me to purchase my own spraycoupe about 10 years ago, it paid for itself the first year. Of course, I cannot call anyone to do the work for me so I can go play golf, and be a social butterfly. Adios Amigos. John
I don't care for Monsatan much but one of the fert guys I deal with talked me into meeting with some regional big shot. This guy was such a smoke blower I wanted to knock him out about 10 min into the meeting. He started out by saying he wanted to hear some of my concerns, so I started explaining what I had seen and why I had stopped planting their crap. But befor I could really say anything he interupts me saying crap like "Genetics and advancements in corn seed are moving so fast that todays hybreds only have a useful life of 3-5 years" and "We just need to have a more trusting relationship". After about 15 min of the crap I just got up and said I've got shixt to do and left.
Faust: I posted that because of the very reason you pointed out. The citidiot that wrote that piece was clueless. Only very vaguely in passing did he say anything about resistance by farmers to their prices/practices.
Faust: Please DO NOT put me in the corn college crowd. You know better than that. They are all about Home Runs only. That crap doesn't fly down here in South Podunk Country. I am looking at my worse harvested per acre yield in 15 years and will still be profitable even though I am in 65% crop insurance territory. Them there Corn College boys would already be enrolled in Wally World greater school if they were in my boots.
No 300/400 dollar triple dipples here lately (or to date). Glowplug wouldn't make it here with his $112 no trait corn that sells for $65 to me this year.
You and I are dinosaurs just waiting for the fireball in the sky to put us out of their misery.
Monsatin has made several fundamental blunders in marketing and pricing. There were two ways to go about what they are doing and they took the top down approach. Like an edict from God. They aren't and we know it.
On the article the boy is also clueless about generic glyphos and where much of it is made and at what price. Much of the <$10 stuff was/is made right here in good ol' USA. By not Monsatin
This will all sort itself out. Competition among the seed companies will keep a lid on prices. Better keep an eye on what Big Fertilizer is doing because seed is only 12% of production costs. Fertilizer is 50% of COP.
This appears to be a buy opportunity to get Little M stock. I've never owned their stock but it appears that opportunity is knocking. Got the first test plot results here in frozen tundra country. Big P's 38P43, 36Y26. 37Y14 and 35F44 svck in both yields and moisture content.
It's now to the point where the small independent seed companies are beating Big P. I wouldn't have DooPunt stock if you gave it to me..............
Ia-55 I was not being critical of you, but the conclusions presented in the post. I met a couple of farmers who farm near Murray at the gun auction this weekend, they did not get all the ground planted. I know everyone South of I-80 is having disappointing yields, along with wet weather. But we will be here next year to plant another crop. Got some prices on seed. Winter wheat $14, Bean seed $38, corn $148 from a seed dealer North of I-80. I laughed so hard I fell off my chair. Please call 911 I cannot get up. lol. John
This is my first stab at this technology.
I am trying to get a handle on this relative impact of the Monsanto deal. In my region of Pa(southeast) when the triples came on the market we did several locations replicated at each to compare the conventionals to the triple to view the yield enhancement. We found as expected where there were pests that were controlled by the events we had a response in some locations a significant response. Unfortunately this season we were not able to obtain the Smartstax from Monsanto to compare to the triple stack and conventional. I am wondering if this Monsanto stock decline is solely from a sales base or from agronomics. Anyone have some side by side or better yet some replicated work on this? I do know that we have some sites in our Corn performance trials that we might be able to make some inferences from but it is nice to get some yield data from the field. In our corn contest fields many of the triples do well with over 240 bu/acre yields I attribute this to the ability of these hybrids to tolerate high populations. Any comments are welcome.